This year, there has been much debate over how fast the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to stabilize the jobs market, given inflation has been trending higher. So far, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a mostly wait-and-see approach to interest rates, only reducing them by a quarter percent once, in September. Most expect a second cut when the Fed meets again on Oct. 29, but what happens after that is a bit murkier. If more cuts are to follow, it will depend on how two important, often compe ...

🇺🇸 US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.The market expectations are at 3.1%, while last month's CPI was at 2.9%.Here are different scenarios:1⃣ CPI > 3.1%This will be bearish for markets.This is because it'll mark the highest CPI print since June 2024.2⃣ CPI = 3.1%This will be in line with the expectations but still somewhat bearish.This is because it'll show a 0.2% MoM CPI increase, which is 2.4% annualized CPI.And the Fed target inflation is 2%, which means Powell could become a bit hawkish.3⃣ CP ...

Market Overview - Stocks are climbing, primarily driven by a rebound in the tech sector and a jump in oil prices, with the Dow up about 170 points and the S&P 500 up approximately 0.7% [1][3] - The NASDAQ composite is up 1%, and small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, are up 1.5% [3][4] Sector Performance - Energy is leading the market today, with tech following closely behind, both sectors outperforming the S&P 500 [6][59] - Notable tech stocks include Nvidia, which is up 1.3%, and Tesla, which is up 2% [7][60] - The volatility index (VIX) has decreased, indicating reduced market fear [4] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged over 5% due to sanctions imposed on two Russian energy companies, with WTI settling above $61 per barrel and Brent above $65 per barrel [9][11] - Despite the recent increase, year-to-date, WTI is down 15% and Brent is down 13% [11] Earnings Reports - Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding expectations, but provided a lower fourth-quarter guidance of $13.3 billion [64][65] - Ford's third-quarter results topped estimates, but the company adjusted its full-year guidance lower due to an aluminum plant fire impacting F-150 production, projecting a $1.5 to $2 billion EBIT headwind [83][84] Company Insights - Intel's CEO highlighted that AI is accelerating demand for compute, creating opportunities across their portfolio [66] - Ford plans to increase F-150 production by over 50,000 trucks in 2026 to meet demand despite production disruptions [86] Consumer Trends - Tractor Supply reported a 7% increase in comparable sales for Q3 but noted a decline in discretionary big-ticket items, reflecting current consumer spending challenges [36][39] - Windham Hotels slashed its full-year outlook and missed revenue estimates, indicating a pullback in travel demand [41][42] Geopolitical Considerations - The upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders is being closely monitored, particularly regarding the Taiwan situation and its potential impact on the semiconductor ecosystem [30][31]

Yen & Bond Market Dynamics - The yen's safe-haven status is under threat as it weakens [1] - Political uncertainty, economic concerns, and slow interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are driving the yen's decline [2] - Increased volatility in Japan's markets presents new opportunities for profit [5] Widowmaker Trade - The "widowmaker trade" (selling Japanese government bonds) is becoming more profitable [1][2] - This trade involves borrowing and selling bonds, betting that yields will increase [3] - Rising interest rates and expectations of increased government spending by the new prime minister are driving bond traders' bets [4] Economic Shift - Japan's economy is shifting from a rut to a state of inflation and growth [4][5] - Fiscal and monetary policy decisions are now major market movers [5]

Welcome back. It's a pretty good Thursday on the Street of Dreams. You got stocks up across the board.The S&P's up threequarters of 1%. NASDAQ up 1% and today really just continuing a rally for the ages. The S&P 500 is basically doubled off its intraday low exactly 5 years ago.The Nasdaq 100 though says, "Hold my beer, it's up 128% in just 60 months." This market along with crypto and maybe even gold have hopefully made a lot of people like you very rich. The fear is that at some point stocks stop going up ...

turn now to the bond market with the 10-year yield briefly crossing back above 4% again as the price of oil also moves up. Let's head now to Rick Santelli who's in Chicago with more on the bond market and I guess could probably tell us as an Illinois guy is Indiana considered the Midwest. Oh, of course it is.Absolutely. We're all part of flyover country. You know, we need to make sure the audience knows tomorrow 8:30 Eastern September CPI.And I think that along with as Sully pointed out oil prices moving hi ...

Core Insights - The upcoming release of September's consumer price index (CPI) report is expected to be a significant market event due to the lack of recent economic data caused by the government shutdown [2][3] - Economists predict a monthly increase of 0.4% in the all-items CPI, maintaining a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than August [4] - The focus will be on any deviations in inflation readings and the impact of tariffs on prices, with expectations of upward pressure in certain categories [5][7] Economic Context - The CPI report is the last major economic reading before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where another interest rate cut is anticipated [6][10] - Despite the uncertainty from the government shutdown, the economy has shown resilience, with GDP tracking close to 4% for the third quarter [11] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, are raising concerns about potential impacts on economic growth [9] Market Reactions - Investors are currently experiencing volatility, with major stock market averages nearing record levels [8] - A higher-than-expected CPI number could lead to increased market volatility, but it may also present buying opportunities given the strong economic fundamentals [12]

Core Insights - Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. has seen a 39% increase in stock price over the past six months, significantly outperforming the industry and major indices [1][7] - The company reported strong financial results for the 13 weeks ending June 28, 2025, with growth in revenue and earnings driven by increased sales across its restaurant and retail liquor operations [2][10] - Management has implemented pricing adjustments to counteract rising costs, although inflation remains a significant challenge [3][11] Financial Performance - Revenue and earnings growth were attributed to higher sales in restaurant food, bar sales, package store sales, and franchise-related income, while rental income remained stable [2][10] - The trailing 12-month EV/Sales ratio for Flanigan's is 0.30X, lower than the industry average of 4.50X but higher than its five-year median of 0.26X [14] Business Model and Strategy - Flanigan's operates 32 establishments, including restaurants and liquor stores, and has a franchise network that supports growth potential [8][12] - The dual business model combining restaurant and retail liquor operations has proven resilient, with both segments contributing to revenue gains [9][10] - Strategic pricing initiatives have helped maintain margins despite inflationary pressures, showcasing effective cost management [11] Market Position and Competitors - Flanigan's stock has outperformed peers like Ark Restaurants Corp. and Nathan's Famous, indicating strong market momentum despite industry challenges [1][7] - The company's focus on maintaining brand standards and performance across franchise units enhances long-term growth visibility [12] Challenges - Flanigan's faces margin pressure from rising wages, staffing shortages, and inflation-related increases in operational costs [13] - Persistent inflation and supply chain disruptions pose risks to cost stability and operational efficiency [13]

South Africa’s central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago reinforced the benefits of a lower inflation goal, saying it could save the government as much as 900 billion rand ($52 billion) over a decade in debt-service costs https://t.co/4dKeQ8AIe1 ...

Core Insights - Gold has increased by 103% since the end of 2023, outperforming the S&P 500's 43% return and U.S. investment grade bonds' 8.6% return [1][2] Economic and Political Factors - Economic and political uncertainties are driving both investors and central banks to increase their gold holdings, contributing to the surge in gold prices [2] - Concerns regarding inflation, tariffs, and national debt are leading investors to seek gold and other non-traditional assets as a hedge against potential declines in stocks and bonds [2] Market Dynamics - Despite positive real yields on bonds, such as the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield at 1.75%, gold has continued to rise, indicating a complex relationship between gold and bond yields [4] - Gold is characterized by low correlation with stocks, often rising when stock prices fall, making it a potential diversification tool in investment portfolios [5] Volatility and Investment Characteristics - Gold is not as stable as commonly perceived, with an average daily volatility of around 17% since 2005, comparable to the 19% volatility of stocks [5] - Unlike stocks, gold does not generate earnings or cash flows, and its price is primarily influenced by changes in real yields, the dollar, and investor sentiment [5]