Welcome back to the goodworld channel everyone. My name is Josh and right now Bitcoin just officially confirmed a break below this very important area on the price chart which now officially invalidates this price pattern that we need to pay attention to. And this is also wiping out massive liquidity towards the downside on this Bitcoin price chart. And this price chart right here is also revealing new price targets to the downside that we need to pay attention to.So, in just a moment, I'll be talking about ...

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose a 10% tariff on eight NATO countries starting February 1 [1] Group 1 - The tariff is aimed at eight specific NATO countries, indicating a targeted approach to trade policy [1] - The implementation date for the tariff is set for February 1, suggesting a timeline for affected countries to prepare [1]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market experienced a decline, influenced by the European Union's plans for €93 billion ($110 billion) in tariffs in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland [1] - The tariff concerns negatively impacted equities in Europe and U.S. futures, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver reached record highs [1] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,000, reflecting a 2.5% decrease since Sunday [2] - The cryptocurrency fell below the $94,500 support level, indicating a potential return to a trading range between $85,000 and $94,500, which has been in place since mid-November [3] Derivatives Market - The crypto market pullback resulted in nearly $800 million in leveraged long bets being liquidated within 24 hours due to margin shortages [6] - Total notional open interest (OI) in crypto futures decreased by over 2% to $138.14 billion, with Bitcoin's OI increasing by 0.65% while OI for other major tokens dropped by 8%-13% [6] - The 30-day implied volatility for BTC and ETH has not significantly increased, indicating traders do not expect major price movements in the near term [6] Altcoin Market - The altcoin market showed mixed performance, with the CoinDesk 80 Index (CD80) down 4.64% over the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) fell by 2.5% [2] - Monero (XMR) diverged positively from Bitcoin, rising over 13%, while DeFi tokens faced double-digit losses [6] - Medium market cap tokens underperformed compared to major cryptocurrencies, highlighting a liquidity issue following October's liquidation events [6] Liquidations and Market Impact - The tariff-induced selloff led to $815 million in liquidations, with $231 million attributed to Bitcoin and the remainder affecting the altcoin market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices increased, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets amid mixed performance in Asian stock markets and declining U.S. stock futures [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Asian stock benchmarks showed mixed results, reflecting varied investor confidence across different markets [1] - U.S. stock futures experienced a decline, suggesting potential bearish sentiment ahead of market openings [1] Group 2: Commodity Trends - The rise in gold and silver prices may signal increased demand for safe-haven investments as market volatility persists [1]

Core Viewpoint - Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on several European countries, escalating his efforts to acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Threats - Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, which will increase to 25% on June 1 [2]. - The tariffs will remain in place until a deal for the complete purchase of Greenland is reached [2]. - This move is seen as a significant challenge to relations with European allies, with immediate backlash from UK political figures [7]. Group 2: National Security Claims - Trump's interest in Greenland has intensified, claiming its current status poses a national security threat to the US, a view disputed by allies like Denmark [3]. - He suggested that China and Russia have interests in Greenland, framing the acquisition as vital for US national security [5]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The tariff threats come shortly after Trump announced trade agreements with the UK and the EU, which he previously described as beneficial partnerships [6]. - Analysts express concerns that sweeping tariffs could significantly damage the US economy, with the average effective tariff rate reaching 16.8%, the highest since 1935 [10]. - Trump's aggressive trade strategy has previously strained US trade ties globally, raising fears of economic repercussions [9][10]. Group 4: Public Opinion and Legal Challenges - A recent poll indicated that fewer than one in five Americans approve of Trump's efforts to acquire Greenland, with bipartisan opposition to the use of military force [12]. - The legality of many of Trump's tariffs is currently under review by the US Supreme Court, with a decision expected soon [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has implemented a new 25% tariff on certain high-end computing chips, specifically targeting hardware essential to the AI sector while providing exemptions to promote domestic tech manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff specifically applies to "certain advanced computing chips," including Nvidia's H200 processor and AMD's MI325X, while excluding chips that support the US technology supply chain [2]. - The proclamation also encompasses imports of semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivative products from any country [2]. Group 2: Future Implications - The administration indicated that this move could be a preliminary step, with potential future expansions of tariffs to a broader range of semiconductors and related products [7]. - National security concerns were cited as a rationale for the tariffs, invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows for trade restrictions based on security risks [7]. Group 3: Strategic Alignment - The tariff aligns with the broader agenda of reshoring advanced manufacturing to maintain a competitive edge in the AI race, with Nvidia being a focal point due to its significant role in powering data centers for AI services [8]. - Previous statements from Trump suggested that Nvidia would be permitted to sell certain advanced chips to China, provided that the US government receives 25% of the proceeds [8].

Market Overview - Soybeans are experiencing losses of 9 to 11 cents, with the national average cash bean price at $9.66 1/2, down 11 cents [1] - Soymeal futures are under pressure, decreasing by $36 to $6.80, while Soy Oil futures are up by 90 to 97 points [1] Export and Production Data - USDA reported a private export sale of 168,000 MT of soybeans to China and 152,404 MT to Mexico [1] - NASS soybean yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, with harvested acreage slightly higher at 80.4 million acres, leading to a production increase of 9 million bushels to 4.262 billion bushels [2] - December 1 soybean stocks are reported at 3.29 billion bushels, which is 190 million bushels larger compared to the previous year [2] Adjustments and Tariffs - WASDE data reflects a downward adjustment in exports by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, while crush is adjusted up by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, resulting in an increase of US ending stocks by 60 million bushels to 350 million bushels [3] - Brazilian soybean production has been raised by 3 million metric tons to 178 million metric tons [3] - President Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, raising concerns particularly regarding China, with no response from China reported yet [3] Auction Results - Sinograin sold 1.1 million metric tons of soybeans in their auction of Chinese state reserves [4] - Current soybean prices for January, March, and May 2026 contracts are reported as $10.23 3/4, $10.38 1/4, and $10.51 3/4 respectively, all showing declines [4]

Market Overview - US stock futures are slightly lower as investors prepare for a significant inflation report and JPMorgan's earnings results, marking the start of the fourth quarter earnings season [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures decreased by 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remained near flat [1] Inflation Data - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report is crucial for understanding inflation trends, especially after disruptions caused by a government shutdown [2] - The December CPI is anticipated to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7% and a monthly rate of 0.3%, indicating steady inflation pressures [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following a December jobs report that suggested a cooling labor market, traders are pricing in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, with potential rate cuts expected in June 2026 [3] Earnings Season - JPMorgan Chase is set to release its earnings report, leading a series of major bank results, including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley in the coming days [4] Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran adds geopolitical uncertainty, impacting market dynamics and tariff pressures on prices [5] Company Developments - BlackRock has announced a reduction of 1% of its staff, indicating potential shifts in operational strategy [6]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, effective immediately [1] - The White House has not provided details on the implementation of the tariff or which countries will be affected [1] - China and the United Arab Emirates are identified as major trading partners of Iran [2] Group 2 - Trade volume between China and Iran reached $13.37 billion in 2024, with China exporting $8.93 billion and importing $4.44 billion [3] - Recent data indicates that in October 2025, China exported $456 million and imported $208 million from Iran [3] - The Trump administration is attempting to negotiate a trade deal with China following a previous tariff war [3] Group 3 - The announcement of the tariff coincides with mass protests in Iran against the government, which have resulted in significant casualties and arrests [4] - Trump has expressed support for the Iranian protesters and suggested potential U.S. involvement [4] - The legality of the tariffs is under review by the Supreme Court, which could have significant financial implications for the federal government [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a challenging environment in 2025, with mixed performance across its portfolio, particularly softness in Tommy Bahama and Johnny Was, while Lilly Pulitzer and emerging brands performed strongly [12][13] - Capital expenditures were high due to the construction of a new distribution center in Georgia, leading to increased debt levels of $132 million compared to typical levels [11][12] - The customer retention rate stood at 62%, with an average annual spend of $395 from 2.6 million unique customers [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tommy Bahama accounts for over 50% of total business, Lilly Pulitzer approximately 25%, and smaller brands make up the remainder [5][6] - Emerging brands grew by 17% in the third quarter, contributing to overall growth despite being a smaller part of the business [10] - Johnny Was has not performed well since its acquisition, but a turnaround plan is in place with new leadership and a focus on artisanal details [9][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced significant headwinds from tariffs, impacting sourcing and product assortment, particularly with a shift from 40% to 10% reliance on China for sourcing [20][21] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with positive indicators such as GDP growth and low unemployment, which could benefit the business in 2026 [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost reduction initiatives, including indirect spending and SG&A expense reductions, to improve profitability [14][19] - Plans for 2026 include a reduced capital spend and a focus on stabilizing Johnny Was while leveraging successful strategies from Lilly Pulitzer across the portfolio [14][25][29] - The company aims to enhance its omnichannel distribution model, balancing retail and e-commerce effectively [6][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing internal initiatives and a more favorable macroeconomic environment as potential drivers for recovery [19][20] - The company acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025 but highlighted strong performances in certain brands as a foundation for future growth [12][19] - Management is committed to addressing the weaknesses in Tommy Bahama and Johnny Was through targeted strategies and improved merchandising [25][29] Other Important Information - The company has revamped its website to improve accessibility and information dissemination [3] - The holiday season performance is critical, with expectations to be at the low end of guidance due to previous challenges [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the business positioned for recovery after challenging years? - Management noted strong performances in Lilly Pulitzer and emerging brands, with plans to extend successful strategies across the portfolio [16][17] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on sourcing and product assortment? - Management discussed the significant challenges posed by tariffs in 2025 and the successful adjustments made to sourcing strategies [20][22] Question: What are the plans for Johnny Was moving forward? - The focus will be on stabilizing the brand, correcting the product line, and emphasizing artisanal details to drive relevance in the market [27][29]