By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention. Official employment data hasn't been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed's ...

Core Insights - Today's CD rates are significantly higher than the national average, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts [1][3] - The highest CD rate currently available is 4.25% APY, offered by LendingClub and United Fidelity Bank [2] - National average CD rates are at 1.70% for a 1-year term, marking some of the highest rates seen in nearly two decades due to the Federal Reserve's inflation control measures [3] Best CD Rates - As of October 20, 2025, the top CD rate is 4.25% APY, available through LendingClub for an 8-month term and United Fidelity Bank for 10- and 18-month terms [2] - Online banks and credit unions generally provide more competitive rates compared to traditional banks [3] Finding the Best CD Rates - It is advisable to shop around and compare CD rates from various financial institutions before making a decision [4] - Online banks often have lower overhead costs, allowing them to offer higher interest rates on CDs [4] - Potential investors should check minimum deposit requirements and review account terms, including early withdrawal penalties and auto-renewal policies [4]

When governments cannot get their act together, and run economic policies that are unsustainable, bouts of inflation just happen. By the time markets wake up, it is too late https://t.co/GexDu1ZKrI ...

Market Overview - European stocks are anticipated to open positively after a volatile period influenced by concerns over bad loans in the U.S. banking sector [1][2] - The U.K.'s FTSE index is projected to rise by 0.32%, Germany's DAX by 0.67%, France's CAC 40 by 0.62%, and Italy's FTSE MIB by 0.65% [1] Banking Sector Insights - European banks have seen a 40% increase this year, leading to high market expectations [3] - Concerns regarding credit issues are primarily centered on the U.S., with European banks reporting solid results and no negative surprises thus far [4] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major earnings reports are expected this week, including L'Oreal on Tuesday and SAP, Barclays, Heineken, and Svenska Handelsbanken on Wednesday [5] - Kering announced the sale of its beauty and fragrance business to L'Oreal for €4 billion ($4.66 billion) [5] U.S. Market Activity - U.S. stock futures are trending higher as investors await significant earnings reports and inflation data [6] - Key companies reporting include Netflix, Coca-Cola, Tesla, and Intel, with the September consumer price index set to be released on Friday [6] Asia-Pacific Market Performance - Asia-Pacific markets traded higher, influenced by China's GDP growth of 4.8% in the July-to-September period, aligning with analyst expectations [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **global economic outlook** and **market trends** for 2025-26, with a focus on various countries and regions including the US, Eurozone, and Asia. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Growth Projections**: - Global growth for H2-24 is projected at **3.9%**, with a decline to **2.5%** in H1-25, followed by a recovery to **3.3%** in H1-26 [9][10] - The US growth forecast shows **2.6%** in H2-24, declining to **1.6%** in H1-25, and stabilizing around **1.6%** in H1-26 [9] - **Tariff Impact**: - Approximately **$500 billion** worth of tariffs are currently in place, with customs revenue collection at an annualized rate of **$355 billion** [15] - The US weighted average tariff has increased to **14.5%**, up from **2.5%** at the start of the year, indicating a significant rise in trade costs [17] - **Inflation and Economic Indicators**: - The effective tariff rate is estimated at about **10%** for total US imports, affecting inflation dynamics [17] - The CPI for the US is projected to average **3.7%** in 2025, with core CPI at **3.1%** [159] - **Sector Contributions**: - The technology sector is highlighted as a major driver of investment growth, contributing significantly to overall economic performance [92] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - The US unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around **4.2%**, with payroll growth showing signs of slowing down [159] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Regional Variations**: - Different regions exhibit varying growth rates, with Asia (ex Japan) projected at **4.3%** and the Eurozone at **0.9%** for 2026 [8] - **Consumer Behavior**: - There is a noted disparity in liquidity among income groups in the US, with the top 20% experiencing higher liquidity levels compared to the bottom 80% [95] - **Future Risks**: - The report emphasizes potential risks from geopolitical events and policy changes that could impact market stability and economic growth [218] - **Valuation and Investment Risks**: - Multi-asset investing carries inherent risks including market, credit, and interest rate risks, which could affect asset valuations during periods of high volatility [218][219] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, tariff impacts, inflation trends, and sector contributions, while also highlighting potential risks and regional variations.

New Zealand inflation accelerated in the third quarter, pushing to the top of the Reserve Bank’s 1%-3% target band even as underlying price pressures recede and policy makers indicate further easing to come https://t.co/iOHvQ0pV8Y ...

Economic Overview - China's economy is facing deep structural challenges, including fading growth drivers, a prolonged property downturn, and entrenched deflation, contrasting with the temporary pandemic shocks experienced previously [1] - The upcoming fourth plenum in Beijing will provide insights into the government's priorities for the 2026-2030 period, with a focus on rebalancing the economy towards domestic consumption [1] Foreign Investment and Trade - Inbound foreign direct investment in China has decreased by nearly 13% in the first eight months, indicating a potential third consecutive year of decline [2] - Despite the decline in foreign investment, the goods trade balance has reached a record $875 billion this year, highlighting strong foreign demand [2] Investment and Industrial Activity - Fixed-asset investment is projected to remain unchanged year-on-year in the first nine months, continuing a downward trend since May, despite increased government borrowing aimed at supporting local authorities [3] - Public spending on infrastructure has not compensated for the decline in housing investment and a slowdown in manufacturing investment [3] Retail and Industrial Output - Retail sales are expected to grow by 3% in September, while industrial output is forecasted to increase by 5%, marking the weakest performance for both metrics this year [4] GDP Growth and Economic Outlook - China's GDP is estimated to have risen by 4.7% in the third quarter, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, reflecting a slowdown in economic momentum [5][6] - The IMF predicts a growth rate of 4.8% for China in 2025, with a further slowdown to 4.2% expected next year, citing weak prospects and ongoing real estate investment shrinkage [6]

Core Insights - Earnings reports are being released this week from approximately 80 S&P 500 companies, indicating a significant period for market analysis and investment decisions [1] Group 1 - The ongoing earnings season is crucial for assessing the financial health and performance of major companies within the S&P 500 index [1]

Group 1: US-China Trade Talks - The resumption of US-China trade talks is a significant geopolitical development that could either calm markets or trigger volatility depending on the outcome of negotiations regarding rare-earth export disputes and tariffs [1][2] - The 100% tariff imposed by Trump and China's restrictions on rare-earth elements are critical issues that could impact technology, defense, and clean energy sectors [1][2] - A breakthrough in negotiations could lead to relief rallies in sectors exposed to trade tensions, such as semiconductors, automotive, materials, and industrials [1][2] Group 2: Earnings Reports and Market Sentiment - Companies reporting earnings this week, particularly those with substantial exposure to China, will face scrutiny regarding trade impact assessments and supply chain strategies [1][2] - Tesla's earnings report is highly anticipated, providing insights into EV demand, autonomous driving, and China market exposure amid trade tensions [2][3] - General Motors and GE Aerospace earnings will offer perspectives on industrial sector health and the impact of trade policies on manufacturing costs [4] Group 3: Semiconductor Sector - Intel's earnings will be critical for assessing chip demand amid trade tensions and inventory dynamics, with a focus on data center chip demand and manufacturing technology [6] - The semiconductor sector is under pressure from trade uncertainties, and strong results from Intel could validate sector resilience [6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - A convergence of economic data, including September CPI, Manufacturing and Services PMI, and new home sales, will provide insights into inflation trends and consumer demand [7] - The CPI report is particularly significant given potential inflationary pressures from higher import costs due to the trade war [7] - The housing market data will help assess the impact of elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainties on residential real estate activity [7]

Tax Bracket Adjustments - The IRS adjusts tax brackets annually to account for inflation, preventing "bracket creep" [1][2] - Due to inflation adjustments and an increased standard deduction, taxpayers may pay slightly less in 2025 compared to 2024, even with the same income [3] Tax Benefits for Seniors - Seniors aged 65 or older receive a temporary $6,000 tax deduction in addition to the standard deduction for the years 2025-2028 [4] - The $6,000 deduction for seniors is phased out for individuals with income at $75,000 and couples at $150,000 [4] - Changes to Medicaid may impact seniors, potentially raising costs related to long-term care [5] State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction - The SALT deduction has increased to $40,000 [5] - Taxpayers in states with high local and state taxes who itemize their deductions could significantly benefit from the raised SALT deduction [6][7] Tax Planning Strategies - Bunching deductions, such as charitable contributions, can help taxpayers exceed the standard deduction and maximize tax savings [8] - Bunching can also be applied to medical expenses to surpass the required percentage for write-offs beyond the standard deduction [9]