Inflation Outlook - The Federal Reserve anticipates that inflation data will increase during the summer [1] - The Federal Reserve chairman stated that inflation performance is in line with expectations [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve paused action upon observing the scale of tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve believes waiting and obtaining more information is a prudent approach [1] - As long as the U S economy remains strong, a cautious approach of waiting is advisable [1]

Let's set the scene. We talk about the first half of 2025. At the start of the year, the ten year yield was at 4.56%.It rose to 4.8% shortly before Donald Trump took office. After Liberation Day, it sunk to 3.86%. Now we're stuck at around 4.27%.That's a pretty wide range and it feels like everything has been priced in at some point during this year. What's not priced in. So what's nice about it so far, by the way.I'd say a couple of things. By the way, the best return opportunity this year across debt and ...

I want to talk about the Fed and cuts. I just did a snap poll on X and we have most people think to cuts. That seems a majority.Second, most would be one and then 13% said zero. I'm in the 13% camp. I just don't see the need for it.What's the problem here. Why cut rates. Why change something if it seems to be going so well right now.So. So I throw out one thing. So you think about the Fed raised interest rates 500 basis points.What was the impact on the economy. Not really debilitating. And I think one thin ...

Economic Data Quality - Mild degradation in the scope of surveys is observed [1] - The direction of travel regarding US economic data measurement is a concern [1] - Continuous improvement in economic data measurement is a smart investment [2] - Concerns exist about data becoming more volatile and less reliable [2] Impact on Decision-Making - Accurate economic data is crucial for the Fed, Congress, and businesses [1] - Reliable data is essential for understanding economic growth (high or low) [2] - Less reliable data will make it more difficult for the private sector [2]

US Economy Resilience - US economy is durable and can withstand a 15% effective tariff [1] - US economy is performing well, contrary to recession predictions [2] Market Sentiment - Markets are awaiting news regarding tariffs on China and Europe to stabilize [2] - Investors are holding a significant amount of cash, waiting for market clarity [2] - Abundance of cash is driving equity market increases [3]