An improved UK relationship with the European Union would help the Bank of England keep inflation under control, BOE policymaker Megan Greene said https://t.co/C8nCx6atcV ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, the newly appointed Fed governor, advocates for a half-point interest rate cut due to trade tensions and economic uncertainty, although a quarter-point cut is more likely at the upcoming meeting [1][2][3]. Interest Rate Cuts - Miran plans to push for a 50 basis point cut, while expecting a 25 basis point reduction, predicting a total of three 25 basis point cuts this year, amounting to 75 basis points [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point last month, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with the current target range set at 4% to 4.25% [4][14]. Economic Context - The U.S. consumer inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, complicating the decision-making process for policymakers [6]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports another quarter-point cut, emphasizing the need to balance economic growth with inflation control [6][7]. Labor Market Concerns - There are warnings from the labor market that a hiring slump could increase unemployment, suggesting that lower rates could stimulate economic growth [3][10]. - Policymakers are cautious due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, leading to a divided opinion on the pace of rate cuts [4][11]. Data Availability Issues - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has delayed inflation and jobs reports due to a government shutdown, which hinders timely economic decision-making [12]. - Miran expressed the necessity of having economic data to inform decisions, indicating reliance on forecasts in the absence of current data [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is criticized for groupthink, where policy decisions often result in unanimous votes, suggesting a lack of diverse opinions [1][4][6] - Public speeches by Fed officials are seen as a way to express differing views on policy, which is beneficial for demonstrating diversity of opinion [2][3] - The need for compromise in decision-making is emphasized, as the Fed must make consistent policy decisions every six weeks [3][4] Group 2 - The Fed's approach to dissent is discussed, with some advocating for more open disagreement to reflect independent views within the committee [6][7][95] - The historical context of consensus voting during the Greenspan era is noted, where unanimous votes were seen as a sign of clear policy direction [6][40] - The Fed's balance sheet and quantitative tightening are addressed, indicating a return to ample reserves and the need to adjust the composition of the balance sheet post-quantitative easing [25][27] Group 3 - The current labor market dynamics are analyzed, highlighting a decline in labor demand masked by a decrease in labor supply, leading to potential misinterpretations of unemployment rates [10][12][15] - The impact of immigration on labor supply and demand is discussed, with a focus on how it affects employment and wage trends [10][11][13] - The relationship between technological advancements and labor productivity is examined, suggesting that while jobs may be lost, new opportunities typically arise [60][64][66] Group 4 - The Fed's stance on fiscal policy is clarified, indicating that while it does not directly influence fiscal decisions, unsustainable deficits could have long-term implications for monetary policy [53][55] - The discussion includes the challenges posed by income inequality and how it complicates the Fed's ability to address specific economic disparities [71][72] - The potential effects of tariffs and trade policies on U.S. competitiveness in manufacturing are acknowledged, with a recognition of the complexities involved in reshoring jobs [75][78]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) showed resilience, initially gaining 100 points (0.2%) before closing with a modest decline of 0.1% [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) followed a similar pattern, gaining 0.4% early on and closing up 0.2% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) performed best, advancing 0.7% in the morning and finishing up 0.6% for the day [2] Tariff Developments - A looming 100% tariff on Chinese goods, particularly due to rare earth export controls, caused the S&P 500 to decline by 1.8% and the Nasdaq 100 by 2.4% [3] - US Treasury Secretary announced that 85 senators are prepared to authorize tariffs of up to 500% on China for purchasing Russian oil, which could disrupt supply chains [4] - The automotive sector is facing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, with analysts suggesting manufacturers may reroute products through Mexico [5] Agricultural Sector Impact - President Trump’s consideration to terminate business with China regarding cooking oil led to significant gains in oilseed and related agriculture stocks, with Australian Oilseeds Holdings surging over 260% [6] - Despite the tariff threats, the actual impact on cooking oil commodities is expected to be minimal due to already decreased Chinese shipments [6] Furniture Tariffs - New furniture tariffs ranging from 30% to 50% took effect on October 14th, causing shares of import-reliant retailers like RH and Wayfair to dip, while domestic manufacturers like La-Z-Boy saw modest gains [6] Inflation and Consumer Impact - President Trump declared inflation "over," while 75% of Americans report soaring prices, with tariffs costing the average household $191 per month [11] - Goldman Sachs predicts that US consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs by year-end, potentially reaching 70% by the end of next year [11] Geopolitical Developments - Trump's announcement of a second meeting with Putin regarding the Ukraine war and India's commitment to stop Russian oil purchases added uncertainty to the market [8] - The market reacted minimally to Trump's threats of strikes on Venezuela, indicating a high tolerance for geopolitical brinkmanship [9] Cryptocurrency Ventures - Eric Trump announced a "Real Estate Tokenization Initiative," but the market for World Liberty Financial tokens has seen a decline of 39.11% over the last 90 days [10] - Bitcoin traded at $108,800, down from a Thursday high of $112,000, reflecting the volatility associated with Trump's announcements [10]

Welcome back to Money Movers. Something has changed in Europe. According to our next guest, forecasting European indices to see a 12 to 16% gain in 2026.Joining us to break down this bull case is Deutsche Bank Research head of European equity strategy and head of cross asset strategy, Max Suier. It's good to see you. Welcome back.What's changed in Europe. >> I think plenty of things have changed actually. So, very short term maybe.Let's start with that, right. Sure. >> Earning season we think is going to be ...

Mortgage Rate Trends - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage declined to 6.27% from 6.3% last week, down from 6.44% a year ago, marking a significant decrease [1] - The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also eased to 5.52% from 5.53% last week, compared to 5.63% a year ago [2] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, bond market expectations for the economy and inflation, and generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which is currently at 4.02% [3] - The decline in mortgage rates began in July, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year due to concerns over the U.S. job market [4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve forecasts two more rate cuts this year and one in 2026, but mortgage rates may not necessarily continue to decline even if the Fed cuts its short-term rate [5] - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has remained above 6% since September 2022, contributing to a slump in the housing market [5] Housing Market Performance - Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell to their lowest level in nearly 30 years last year, with current sales running below the levels seen at this time in 2024 [6]

Basics of Stocks - Stocks, also known as shares, represent ownership in a company, providing partial claims to its assets and earnings [1][2] - Companies issue shares to raise capital, often through an IPO (Initial Public Offering), which lists the company's shares on the stock market [2] - Stock prices are determined by supply and demand, with investor demand largely based on the expected future performance of the company [3] Investment Principles - An investment is anything expected to gain value or generate income over time, with stocks achieving this through capital appreciation and dividends [5][6] - Capital appreciation occurs as a company grows in value, increasing the value of its shares; dividends involve companies distributing excess profits to shareholders [7][8] - Reinvesting returns generates further returns, creating a compounding effect that significantly increases wealth accumulation over time [12] Investing vs Saving - Investing allows for returns that can outpace inflation, building wealth over time, unlike saving which may lose value due to inflation [11][12] - Compounding is a powerful effect where investment returns generate their own returns, leading to substantial growth over time [12][13] - Starting to invest early is crucial, as it allows more time for money to compound and grow [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter sales reached $1,190.8 million, an increase of 3.8% from $1,147 million last year, with organic sales up 3% [7][41] - Operating income margin was 23.4%, including a 190 basis point benefit from a legal settlement, while the adjusted margin was 21.5%, down 50 basis points year-over-year [8][40] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $5.02, or $4.71 excluding the one-time legal benefit, marking the highest EPS for a third quarter [8][45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **C and I Group**: Sales were $367.7 million, reflecting an organic sales decrease of 0.8%, with operating margin at 15.6%, down 110 basis points year-over-year [17][48] - **Tools Group**: Sales were $506 million, with a 1% organic gain and operating margin of 21.7%, up 10 basis points from last year [22][49] - **RS and I Group**: Sales increased to $464.8 million, with an organic growth of 8.9% and operating margin at 30.4%, including a legal benefit [33][52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive repair market showed continued strength, with spending on repairs up double digits and an aging vehicle fleet averaging nearly 12.8 years [10][11] - The critical industries segment demonstrated growth despite geopolitical uncertainties, with increasing order activity noted [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on faster payback items and innovative products to adapt to market challenges, leveraging its flexible manufacturing capabilities [5][13] - The strategy includes enhancing customer connections and expanding product offerings to meet the evolving needs of repair shop owners and managers [14][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of markets and the company's ability to navigate challenges, citing strong performance despite economic headwinds [5][61] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by strategic advantages and a robust product pipeline [65][66] Other Important Information - The company celebrated its 105th anniversary with a successful franchisee conference, which saw increased orders and positive feedback from franchisees [24][26] - The effective income tax rate for the third quarter was 22.6%, with expectations for a similar rate in the upcoming quarters [45][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Consistency in RS and I growth - Management noted improved product launches and consistent performance across the line, indicating a positive trend in diagnostics and repair systems [70][71] Question: OEM share accrual and undercar stabilization - OEM business is gaining share, while undercar sales showed signs of stabilization, contributing to overall growth [73][75] Question: Sequential volume strength and capacity investments - Capacity increases over the past years have helped match volume fluctuations, but the sequential improvement was primarily due to effective product pivots rather than SFC orders [81][82] Question: Organic growth in Snap-on Tools - The organic growth of 1% in Snap-on Tools was attributed to a mix of promotions and product performance, with margins remaining stable [86][89] Question: Off-truck sales comparison - Off-truck sales were slightly lower than on-truck sales, but within the normal variability range, indicating no major concerns [90][92]

The euro zone is facing risks to the inflation outlook in both directions, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, highlighting that he and his colleagues retain full flexibility on interest rates https://t.co/1Qn8PeUCoz ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and disappointing economic data, while the euro is gaining strength amid easing political risks in France and supportive comments from the European Central Bank. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.21% and has reached a one-week low, influenced by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller regarding potential interest rate cuts to support the labor market [1] - The October Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell significantly by -36.0 to a six-month low of -12.8, which was weaker than the expected 10.0, contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is also seen as a negative factor for the dollar, as prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The October NAHB housing market index rose by +5 to a six-month high of 37, surpassing expectations of 33, indicating some positive momentum in the housing sector [3] - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that US productivity growth appears to be improving "significantly," which may help mitigate inflationary pressures from trade tariffs [4] Group 3: Euro Performance - The EUR/USD pair is up by +0.21% and has reached a one-week high, supported by easing political risks in France after Prime Minister Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes [5] - Hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch indicated that the likelihood of additional ECB rate cuts has been decreasing, further supporting the euro [5][6]