Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: December 9, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Wandong (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022725) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans focus on whether the yield of 53 bushels per acre in the December supply - demand report will continue to be reduced. The US claims 12 million tons of Chinese purchases, but less than 40% has been completed, and the completion date may be postponed. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the US soybean price will fluctuate around the cost - line. The inner - market soybean meal lacks a unilateral driver and will follow the outer - market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the scale of the state reserve release will determine the supply in the first quarter. [4] - Recently, US soybeans have fallen below key levels, and the inner - market has followed suit with a larger decline due to the news of state reserve release. The profit of soybean purchases has decreased. The scale of the state reserve release is estimated to be between 5 - 6 million tons, and a weekly release of 500,000 tons may continue until the end of February. When trading the profit of US soybean purchases, the supply scale should be used to judge the trend. [4] - Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and subsequent imports, the supply is expected to recover, so the rapeseed meal market is weak. Currently in the off - season of aquatic consumption, the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to rise. [4][5] - The cost of previous soybean purchases supports the near - month contracts, and the outer - market balance sheet valuation range is moving up. However, the current high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China, the smooth planting in Brazil, and the expected South American bumper harvest are suppressing the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - month is expected to be filled under the background of China - US trade talks. [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Forecast | Commodity | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 2800 - 3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2250 - 2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | [3] | 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | High protein inventory, worried about the decline in meal prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory | M2605 | Sell | 25% | 2850 - 2900 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2605 | Buy | 50% | 2700 - 2750 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to the situation | M2605 | Sell | 50% | 2850 - 2950 | [3] | 3. Oilseed Futures Prices | Commodity | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | - 22 | - 0.73% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2763 | - 15 | - 0.54% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2936 | - 9 | - 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2397 | - 25 | - 1.03% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2317 | - 25 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2446 | - 18 | - 0.73% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1093.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.0723 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [9] | 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 252 | 37 | RM01 - 05 | 20 | - 7 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | - 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 69 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 100 | - 5 | RM09 - 01 | 49 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 199 | 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 38 | 35 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 640 | 20 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 436 | - 8 | [10] | 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4716.1059 | - 40.415 | 0.0773 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3763.46 | - 32.42 | - 73.19 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 766.8465 | - 2.2244 | 6.6552 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 1011.6253 | - 40.415 | - 138.5985 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 67.7677 | 0.2112 | - 0.708 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 687 | - 51 | 23 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 913 | - 55 | 13 | [11] |

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) showed resilience, initially gaining 100 points (0.2%) before closing with a modest decline of 0.1% [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) followed a similar pattern, gaining 0.4% early on and closing up 0.2% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) performed best, advancing 0.7% in the morning and finishing up 0.6% for the day [2] Tariff Developments - A looming 100% tariff on Chinese goods, particularly due to rare earth export controls, caused the S&P 500 to decline by 1.8% and the Nasdaq 100 by 2.4% [3] - US Treasury Secretary announced that 85 senators are prepared to authorize tariffs of up to 500% on China for purchasing Russian oil, which could disrupt supply chains [4] - The automotive sector is facing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, with analysts suggesting manufacturers may reroute products through Mexico [5] Agricultural Sector Impact - President Trump’s consideration to terminate business with China regarding cooking oil led to significant gains in oilseed and related agriculture stocks, with Australian Oilseeds Holdings surging over 260% [6] - Despite the tariff threats, the actual impact on cooking oil commodities is expected to be minimal due to already decreased Chinese shipments [6] Furniture Tariffs - New furniture tariffs ranging from 30% to 50% took effect on October 14th, causing shares of import-reliant retailers like RH and Wayfair to dip, while domestic manufacturers like La-Z-Boy saw modest gains [6] Inflation and Consumer Impact - President Trump declared inflation "over," while 75% of Americans report soaring prices, with tariffs costing the average household $191 per month [11] - Goldman Sachs predicts that US consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs by year-end, potentially reaching 70% by the end of next year [11] Geopolitical Developments - Trump's announcement of a second meeting with Putin regarding the Ukraine war and India's commitment to stop Russian oil purchases added uncertainty to the market [8] - The market reacted minimally to Trump's threats of strikes on Venezuela, indicating a high tolerance for geopolitical brinkmanship [9] Cryptocurrency Ventures - Eric Trump announced a "Real Estate Tokenization Initiative," but the market for World Liberty Financial tokens has seen a decline of 39.11% over the last 90 days [10] - Bitcoin traded at $108,800, down from a Thursday high of $112,000, reflecting the volatility associated with Trump's announcements [10]

Market Movements - Australian Oilseeds Holdings Limited Warrant (NASDAQ:COOTW) surged by 494.86% to $0.18 with a trading volume of 3,759,243, while its ordinary shares (COOT) increased by 244.87% to $3.32 with a trading volume of 167,502,947, despite facing a Nasdaq notification regarding non-compliance with the minimum stockholders' equity requirement of $10 million [1][4] - Genprex, Inc. (NASDAQ:GNPX) saw a 193.90% increase in its stock price to $0.74 with a trading volume of 825,729,912, driven by anticipation of promising preclinical data on its Reqorsa® Gene Therapy, which targets ALK-EML4 positive translocated non-small cell lung cancer [1][4] - Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ:OMER) experienced a 170.73% increase in its stock price to $11.1 with a trading volume of 107,994,321, following a significant licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk valued at up to $2.1 billion, granting exclusive global rights to develop and commercialize Omeros' MASP-3 inhibitor [1][4] Investor Interest - Bonk, Inc. Warrant (BNKKW) experienced a 125.16% price increase to $0.17 with a volume of 127,897, indicating investor interest in the company's prospects [2] - The reasons behind these surges include positive clinical trial results, strategic corporate developments, and broader market trends favoring these sectors [2] - The market environment reflects significant investor interest across various sectors, including biotechnology and consumer defensive, with analysts closely monitoring these companies for further developments [3]

Company Overview - Veritone Inc (NASDAQ:VERI) experienced a significant increase in share price, rising 48.2% to $8.09 in pre-market trading following contract wins and preliminary third-quarter results [1][2]. Contract Wins - The company announced contract wins to deploy its Veritone Data Refinery product with leading hyperscalers and venture-backed model developers [1]. Financial Performance - Veritone reported preliminary, unaudited third-quarter revenue between $28.5 million and $28.7 million, indicating a 30.5% increase at the midpoint compared to the third quarter of 2024 [1].

Core Insights - The global oilseed market is facing short-term optimism but long-term challenges, raising questions about whether soybean prices have reached their peak [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Short-term outlook for the oilseed market appears positive, driven by factors such as demand recovery and supply constraints [1] - Long-term challenges include potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions affecting production [1] Group 2: Price Analysis - There is speculation regarding the peak of soybean prices, with recent trends indicating a possible stabilization or decline [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring price movements to assess future investment opportunities [1]