Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the impact of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and earnings growth on market performance, with a focus on the potential for continued double-digit gains in the stock market. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed's actions, particularly rate cuts, have been significant but there is a belief that further cuts may not be necessary given strong GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3 and projected 15% profit growth year-over-year for the next year [3][4] - There is speculation that the Fed may still cut rates once or more in the coming year due to political pressures, but the primary focus should be on earnings growth rather than Fed actions [4][6] Group 2: Earnings and Economic Growth - Earnings growth is identified as the primary driver of market gains, with initial fears about earnings being unfounded as the year progressed [2] - The combination of strong earnings, supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and robust GDP growth creates a favorable environment for the stock market [6][8] Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - There is cautious optimism about the market's ability to continue its upward trajectory, driven by AI and other sectors, despite potential volatility and risks such as upcoming Supreme Court decisions that could impact trade policy [15][16] - Concerns about inflation resurfacing if rate cuts are implemented too aggressively highlight the delicate balance the Fed must maintain [11][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Rate Trajectory - The upcoming change in Fed chair leadership in 2026 is significant for the rate trajectory and overall macroeconomic environment [1][2][3] - A dovish Fed chair may lead to potential rate cuts, but it is unlikely that rates will drop to 1% or 2% [2][4] - The new Fed chair's ability to influence the committee's stance on rates is crucial, as they only have one vote and need committee support for major changes [3][4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns and Economic Data - Inflation has taken a backseat recently, but its potential resurgence in 2026 remains uncertain [5][6] - Current inflation data may be distorted, complicating predictions for future inflation trends [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still unclear, with opinions divided on whether they will have a lasting effect [14] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The oil and gas market shows signs of flagging inflation, while precious metals are reaching record highs, indicating mixed signals in the economy [11][12] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion is not intended to be stimulative but may have stimulative effects on the economy [13] - Lower interest rates could benefit housing and reduce the interest burden on U.S. Treasury debt, positively impacting the real economy [22][25]

Core Viewpoint - Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. reported strong financial performance for fiscal 2025, with significant increases in sales and net income, despite facing inflationary pressures and rising operating costs [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, sales rose to $49.2 million from $46 million, and net income increased to $0.9 million from $0.2 million, resulting in diluted EPS of $0.48 compared to $0.11 a year ago [2]. - Total revenues for fiscal 2025 increased by 9.6% to $205.2 million from $187.2 million, while net income attributable to stockholders surged by 49.9% to $5 million ($2.71 per share) from $3.4 million ($1.81 per share) in fiscal 2024 [3]. Segment Performance - Restaurant food sales grew by 8.5% to $124.5 million, and restaurant bar sales increased by 5.8% to $31.8 million. Package store sales advanced by 16% to $46.9 million, driven by higher customer traffic [4]. - Restaurant gross margin improved to 66.6% from 65.6%, while package store gross margin fell to 25.1% from 26.6%, indicating differing profitability trends across segments [7]. Cost Management - Total costs and expenses rose by 8.3% to $196.5 million, which was slower than revenue growth, leading to a 49.7% increase in income from operations to $8.7 million from $5.8 million [5]. - Payroll and related costs increased by 7.3% to $63.7 million, but payroll as a percentage of revenue improved to 31.04% from 31.70%, suggesting effective cost management [6]. Liquidity and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of fiscal 2025 were $20.1 million, down from $21.4 million, primarily due to a land acquisition. Operating cash flow improved to $10.5 million from $6.6 million [8]. Management Insights - Management highlighted that revenue growth was driven by higher menu prices and increased sales, particularly from the Hollywood, FL location operating for the full year [9]. - To maintain margins amid inflation, the company implemented multiple price increases throughout fiscal 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - While Flanigan's did not provide formal numeric guidance for fiscal 2026, management expects continued growth in restaurant and package store sales, but also anticipates rising operating costs and a potential decline in package liquor store gross margin [12]. - The company plans to construct a new restaurant in Cutler Bay, FL, and has committed to purchasing $9.2 million of baby back ribs for calendar year 2026, reflecting increased market pricing [13][14].

Core Insights - The potential invasion of Venezuela poses significant geopolitical risks that could impact global markets, particularly through fluctuations in oil prices [1][2][3] - Venezuela's oil production, accounting for 1% of global consumption, could lead to notable short-term impacts on energy prices and inflation if disrupted [2] - Military action in Venezuela could have broader implications for regime change and oil production, affecting financial markets worldwide [3] Active ETFs and Investment Strategies - Active ETFs provide flexibility to adjust to geopolitical risks and focus on company fundamentals, which can help investors navigate market shocks [4] - The T. Rowe Price Equity Research ETF (TSPA) exemplifies an active ETF that utilizes a bottom-up portfolio construction approach, identifying companies with strong fundamentals [5] - Transitioning to active ETFs by the end of 2025 may be a strategic move for investors to prepare for potential geopolitical risks in the upcoming year [5]

Economic Outlook - The US economists project a growth rate of approximately 1.9% for the next year, indicating a focus on downside risks related to labor [2] - Tax law changes, including potential tax incentives and refunds, are expected to influence economic conditions positively, potentially leading to a stronger growth environment [3][4] Inflation Trends - Headline inflation is anticipated to remain contained, with oil prices expected to stabilize around $60 and food prices potentially decreasing due to tariff adjustments [4] - Core inflation may remain sticky or even decline, despite stronger growth, particularly in the services sector [5] Market Projections - The S&P 500 target for the next year is set at 7700, representing an 11% increase from current levels, driven by expectations of continued AI investment and a cyclical recovery [5][7] - This projection suggests the potential for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains for the S&P 500, which historically indicates a positive outlook for the market [8] AI and Earnings Growth - The role of AI is viewed as a significant factor in driving earnings growth, with expectations of a "beat and raise" scenario for many AI companies [6][7] - There is an anticipated broadening of earnings due to increased demand and supply dynamics related to AI adoption [7]

No Overhead Resistance, Only Reversal RiskWith no true resistance, let’s face it, the only fear for the bulls is a sudden reversal to the downside with better-than-average volume. We could still get this today, but if it occurs, it will be driven by low volume, which will set up the next “buy the dip” opportunity.The New Definition of a Dip in a Vertical Gold MarketAs we move higher and more vertical, the definition of dip is going to change. Sticking with a 50% correction of a price swing, our “dip” level ...

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season was notably shorter this year, with only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, yet consumer resilience was evident as spending continued despite the time constraints [2][3] - Value retailers, such as Walmart and dollar stores, performed well due to consumers having limited budgets and opting to spend in fewer places [3][6] - Electronics emerged as the top-selling category, with significant demand for gaming consoles, new phones, and laptops, contributing to a mini boom for retailers and tech companies [4] Retail Performance - Discount retailers saw substantial gains, with dollar stores and Walmart reporting increased sales, reflecting consumer behavior focused on budget-friendly options [6][14] - The K-shaped economy is highlighted, where affluent consumers continue to spend confidently while budget-minded individuals face economic challenges [7][12] - Luxury retailers experienced a mixed performance, with ultra-high-end products performing well, while mid-level luxury brands struggled due to inflation and decreased aspirational spending [8][9][11] Future Outlook - The retail economy is expected to remain strong in 2026, with consumers likely to continue spending, albeit with a focus on essentials and budget items [13][14] - There may be a "holiday hangover" as consumers reassess their financial situations post-holiday season, leading to potential shifts in spending behavior [13][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows low unemployment and healthy consumer balance sheets, but poor sentiment could impact future spending [15]

分组1 - The current market dynamics indicate a significant interest in gold and precious metals, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards these assets as a hedge against inflation and currency instability [2][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's outlook is characterized by a potential pause in interest rate changes, with expectations of cuts beginning in mid-2026, influenced by political pressures and the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee [7][8][10] - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve may lack independence in its decision-making, leading to a higher likelihood of rate cuts despite economic indicators [9][12][14] 分组2 - Consumer sentiment reflects expectations of a 5-year forward inflation rate remaining high, between 3.5% to 4%, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation among the public [6] - The market is currently experiencing confusion regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, with a split in opinions on whether the Fed should cut rates, which could lead to volatility in financial markets [13][14]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its strong performance into the final trading week of 2025, driven primarily by AI developments despite concerns about overvaluation [2] - Inflation is a significant concern for 2026, with potential inflationary pressures from oil and a weakening consumer backdrop [3][4] - There is a cautious outlook for 2026, with expectations of a flat market and reliance on dividend returns after a strong run in previous years [5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer market is described as bifurcated, with affluent consumers maintaining spending while lower-income consumers face financial pressures [6] - The overall job market is not strong, which may impact consumer spending and corporate results [6][7] - Consumers have accumulated high credit card balances, which may limit future spending despite potential rate cuts [7] Investment Focus - Investment strategies are shifting towards AI infrastructure, which is seen as less overpriced compared to applied AI segments [9] - Companies involved in cloud computing and chip manufacturing are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to their business infrastructure focus [9] - Beldin, a company focused on automation and robotics, is identified as a promising investment, benefiting from North American automation spending and trading at lower multiples compared to peers [10][11]

gold bitcoin, gold all time high, silver, gold prices,. Photo by BeInCrypto While the crypto community remained focused on the possibility of an altcoin season and fresh Bitcoin highs, a different narrative unfolded. By late 2025, what many analysts now describe as a “metal season” has taken shape. Precious metals and even base metals have outperformed cryptocurrencies this year. With analysts expecting this momentum to extend into next year, a key question emerges: could copper offer a more compelling be ...