We are coming up on this mark. As you look back over the past year, what has been the biggest surprise to you as someone actively involved in these markets. >> Good morning, Brian.Thank you for having me on. Uh to me, it's the market resiliency. I mean, it truly is the Teflon market.you if someone had told us a year ago that the Trump administration was actually going to go through with all of these reciprocal tariffs with threatening 100 plus percent tariffs on China all of these different trade metrics an ...

All right, we got some breaking news from Washington Fed Governor Lisa Cook who is speaking in DC. Steve Leeman has those headlines. Steve.>> Uh, thanks Brian. The Olive for Fed policy continues to be somewhat confusing with Fed officials offering different forecasts from each other and even some officials taking both sides of the argument. Lisa Cook speaking in Washington said she supported the decision to cut rates last week.Uh, but says downside risks to employment are greater than upside risk to inflati ...

Manufacturing Sector Overview - The ISM manufacturing index for October reported a reading of 48.7%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, consistent with the August figure and lower than previous months [1][2] - This marks the sixth consecutive month below the neutral level of 50, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing industry [3] Price Trends - The prices paid index decreased to 58.0%, down from 61.9%, representing the second lowest reading of the year, indicating easing inflationary pressures [2] - The January figure was notably higher at 54.9%, suggesting a trend of declining prices in the manufacturing sector [2] New Orders and Employment - New orders improved slightly to 49.4%, up from 48.9%, but still below the neutral mark, indicating mixed signals in demand [2][3] - Employment figures showed a slight increase to 46.0%, up from 45.3%, marking the best reading since May, although still indicating contraction [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bond ETFs experienced a decline following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which contradicted market expectations for a certain move [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% [1]. - Powell emphasized that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, highlighting differing views within the committee [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, futures markets reduced expectations for a December rate cut, with the probability dropping to about 66% from around 90% [2]. - Yields surged in response, with the 2-year Treasury yield increasing by 11 basis points to 3.6%, the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.07%, and the 30-year yield climbing by 7 basis points to 4.6% [3]. Group 3: Bond ETFs Performance - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell by 1%, while the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) decreased by 0.65% [3]. - The 10-year yield has remained near 4%, reflecting a bounce off this key level as investors processed Powell's remarks [3]. Group 4: Economic Considerations - Powell noted ongoing risks related to inflation and employment, mentioning the government shutdown as a challenge to the Fed's data-driven approach [4]. - Despite Powell's cautious stance, markets anticipate approximately three additional rate cuts between now and mid-2026, with future moves dependent on economic data [5].

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry acknowledges a challenging situation with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, highlighting the absence of a risk-free policy path [1] - The industry shifted towards a more neutral policy stance, considering increased downside risks to employment [2] - The industry emphasizes that policy decisions are not predetermined and will be based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks [3][5] - Differing views exist regarding further policy rate reductions, indicating that such actions are not a certainty [4] Economic Outlook - The industry faces two-sided risks in discussions regarding economic developments [3] - The industry remains prepared to respond promptly to potential economic developments [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes managing inflation and ensuring employment, which creates tension between job growth and price stability [2][10] - The Kansas City Fed has a historical tendency to adopt a hawkish stance, indicating a cautious approach towards rate cuts despite pressures from political figures [4][5] - Small and medium-sized businesses are crucial for job creation in the U.S., accounting for 80% of jobs and holding about 50% of employment, suggesting that their performance is more indicative of economic health than larger companies [8][9] Group 2 - Current economic indicators show a mixed picture, with some data suggesting a slowdown while others indicate stability, highlighting the complexity of the economic landscape [7][8] - The 10-year Treasury yield remains steady, which is critical for businesses, as they rely more on long-term rates than on the Federal Funds rate [7] - There is skepticism regarding the likelihood of further rate cuts unless there is a significant economic downturn, with the Fed expected to maintain its principles against political pressures [6][10]

When it comes to the tilt of jobs versus the Fed's mandate on inflation and price stability, which do you think it should tilt more towards given what we've seen so far. >> Well, look, one of the very rare things would be to cut rates when you have 3% inflation or slightly under 3% wherever the number is. We always want to keep uh 1% real rate.So, this may be as far as you can push it right now. And maybe that's what the Kansas City Fed uh is concerned about. We'll have to see when we get a better briefing ...

Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.And that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. In the near term, risks to inf ...

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing Industry Overview - The briefing primarily discusses the economic outlook and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, focusing on employment, inflation, and interest rates. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75% to 4% to support maximum employment and stable prices [1][4][6]. 2. **Economic Growth**: GDP growth was reported at 1.6% for the first half of the year, down from 2.4% the previous year, with stronger consumer spending noted as a key driver [2][49]. 3. **Labor Market Conditions**: The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job gains slowing significantly and the unemployment rate remaining low at 4.3% [2][54]. There are concerns about declining labor force participation and immigration affecting job availability [3][38]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation remains elevated, with total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rising 2.8% over the past year. Core PCE prices also increased by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4][24]. 5. **Risks to Employment and Inflation**: The balance of risks has shifted, with downside risks to employment increasing and upside risks to inflation remaining [5][58]. The FOMC is navigating a challenging situation where one goal may conflict with the other [5][58]. 6. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC plans to cease the reduction of aggregate securities holdings as of December 1, indicating a shift towards a more neutral policy stance [6][8][21]. 7. **Diverse Views within the Committee**: There are strongly differing views among committee members regarding future policy actions, particularly concerning the potential for further rate cuts in December [10][36][58]. 8. **Impact of Tariffs**: Higher tariffs are contributing to inflation in certain goods, but the FOMC believes these effects may be short-lived and should not lead to ongoing inflation problems [4][25][40]. 9. **Investment in AI and Infrastructure**: Significant investments in AI and infrastructure are noted, with the FOMC indicating that these investments are not particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [27][28][48]. 10. **Consumer Spending**: Despite a cooling labor market, consumer spending remains strong, particularly among higher-income consumers, which is a significant driver of economic growth [48][49]. Other Important Considerations - **Data Availability**: The ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed some important economic data, complicating the FOMC's ability to assess the labor market and inflation accurately [2][19][50]. - **Long-term Inflation Expectations**: Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal, despite current elevated levels [4][24]. - **K-shaped Economic Recovery**: The economy is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, where higher-income consumers are faring better than those at the lower end of the income spectrum [32][55]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the Federal Reserve's briefing, highlighting the current economic landscape, monetary policy decisions, and the challenges faced by the committee.

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting differing views among Fed governors regarding inflation risks and labor market conditions [1][2] - The Fed has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, citing cooling labor conditions and persistent inflation [2] - Powell noted that while inflation has decreased from 2022 highs, recent price pressures in goods categories have emerged, leading to an upward tilt in near-term inflation risks [3] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet runoff, concluding "quantitative tightening" on December 1, after reducing its securities holdings by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years [4] - Powell emphasized that the Fed will remain data-dependent and is prepared to respond to economic developments without a preset policy course [5]