I was wondering if you could step back a little bit, Chair Powell. Um, you know, there's a spade of articles and a lot of op-eds now in the newspapers saying that the US economy and the global economy is going through this profound change, you know, under akin to the end of the Bretton Woods era in the 1970s. And don't you owe the American people like some sort of like explanation for what's we're going through.I mean, I I noticed earlier this month when you talked about Bretton Woods a little bit and you s ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently positioned to wait for more clarity before making adjustments to monetary policy, with a high bar for cutting rates due to uncertainty and above-target inflation [3][6]. - There are mixed views among FOMC participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing that tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent, while others express concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored [3][7]. - The economic implications of tariffs are significant, with potential for both upward pressure on prices and negative effects on employment, particularly in sectors reliant on imported materials [7][8]. Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to push up prices, but the extent of the increase and its impact on growth and employment remains uncertain [7]. - Three channels through which tariffs could have a persistent influence on inflation include increased short-run inflation expectations, opportunistic pricing by firms, and lower productivity leading to upward price pressure [7]. - The FOMC acknowledges that tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, with potential long-term effects depending on how trade policy evolves [7][8]. Balance of Risks - Current data suggests that the Fed is close to meeting its inflation mandate, with inflation at 2.1 percent in April [8]. - There are greater upside risks to inflation and potential downside risks to employment and output growth in the future [8]. - The balance of risks is closely tied to the evolution of trade policy, with uncertainty remaining about the ultimate levels of tariffs and their economic impact [8]. Inflation and Inflation Expectations - Recent inflation data has been subdued, but expectations are that tariffs will soon reflect in prices [11]. - Estimates indicate that tariffs have raised overall core PCE prices by 0.2% through April, suggesting a quick pass-through of tariffs into prices [11]. - While short-term inflation expectations have risen sharply, longer-term expectations remain stable [11]. Growth and Labor Market Outlook - The labor market is currently near maximum employment, but trade and policy changes could raise the unemployment rate [12]. - There are indications that economic activity may be starting to slow, with expectations of slower growth compared to the previous year [12][14]. - Businesses are preparing for potential workforce reductions if uncertainty persists, indicating a cautious outlook on economic activity [12][14].

Well, investors shifting their focus back on the Federal Reserve ahead of the central bank's policy meeting next week. President Trump once again calling for Fed Chair Pal to cut rates for more on the path ahead for the Fed and interest rates. Let's get now to Loretta Mester, University of Pennsylvania adjunct professor and former Cleveland Federal Reserve President.Uh Loretta, always good to see you. So, let's start Loretta with that inflation report we got today. PPI tame Loretta benign just like CPI yest ...

Employment Landscape - The non-farm payrolls report, while stronger than expected, indicates a slowing employment landscape [1] - Headline data decreased compared to the previous month, which was also revised downwards [1] - Employers may be reducing hiring due to tighter financial conditions, while incentivizing current employees with higher wages [1] Wage Growth & Labor Force - Strong wage growth coupled with a lower labor force participation rate was observed [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Continued wage pressures may keep inflation elevated, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The low unemployment rate provides no immediate impetus for a rate cut [2]

We're checking in on the consumer. New data from Vantage Score shows student loans dragging on delinquency rates. Auto loans surging past prepandemic highs.For more, we're bringing in now Silio Tavvaris, CEO and president of Vantage Score. Silio, always great to see you, especially on set. So, we are always looking as investors for lines of signing the consumer.Silio, different data, different metrics. What start big picture. What are you seeing.What do you see with the consumer based on the credit data you ...

[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a lowered forecast for nonfarm payroll growth to +110k, which is below the consensus of +126k, suggesting a cautious outlook for the employment sector [9]. Core Insights - Private sector employment increased by 37k in May, which was below expectations, and the previous month's employment was revised down to +60k from +62k [1][2]. - The ISM services index fell to 49.9 in May, indicating contraction, with significant declines in business activity and new orders, while the employment component showed a slight increase [3][7]. - The S&P Global US services PMI was revised up to 53.7, reflecting improvements in new business and employment components [7]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - The ADP report showed a 37k increase in private sector employment for May, with a notable rise in the services sector, particularly in leisure and hospitality (+38k) and financial services (+20k) [2][3]. - Employment in goods-producing industries saw a slight decline of 2k, despite a 6k increase in construction jobs [2]. ISM Services Index - The ISM services index decreased by 1.7 points to 49.9, falling short of consensus expectations, with declines in business activity (-3.7 points) and new orders (-5.9 points) [3][7]. - The employment component of the ISM services index increased by 1.7 points to 50.7, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [3]. S&P Global Services PMI - The S&P Global US services PMI was revised up by 1.4 points to 53.7, with both new business and employment components showing positive revisions [7]. - The new business index increased by 0.9 points to 53.2, while the employment index rose by 2.4 points to 51.8, indicating a more favorable outlook for the services sector [7].