RT unusual_whales (@unusual_whales)US ADP nonfarm employment change actual: 54k vs 104k previous; est 68k ...

💥BREAKING:Important data today 👇🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims https://t.co/LWtXDW3aAO ...

Industry Recognition - The report highlights "America's Best Employers For Tech Workers 2025" [1] Data Source - The information is sourced from a URL link: https://t.co/sYuIZPwowU [1] - Additional data may be available at: https://t.co/Npgn7D7YCp [1]

Labor Market Trends - Official data indicates limited evidence of increasing redundancies in Britain [1] - Firms are showing a decreased tendency to hire new employees or replace those who leave [1] - The figures may not fully capture the situation in smaller employers [1]

ISM Manufacturing Analysis - The ISM manufacturing headline number for August is 48.7%, marking the sixth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction [1] - Despite being in contraction territory, 48.7% is the best number since June [1] Prices Paid - The prices paid number is 63.7%, the smallest since February, suggesting easing inflationary pressures [2] New Orders - New orders stand at 51.4%, exceeding 50 and indicating expansion, reaching levels last seen in January [2] Employment - The employment component is 43.8%, reflecting weakness and comping to the weakest level since last month [3] - This marks the seventh consecutive month of employment component in contraction territory (under 50) [3] Construction Spending - July construction spending is reported at -0.1%, aligning with expectations [3] - This is the best number since April when it was positive at positive one-tenth of a percent [4]

Employment Trends - AI is expected to change work by shrinking the workforce and boosting productivity [1] - Stanford data indicates a 13% drop in employment for workers under 25 in jobs most exposed to AI [2] - MAG7 companies are reducing middle management, with Alphabet cutting 35% of small team managers [3] Company Strategies - Companies are seeing initial productivity gains from AI experiments, but widespread efficiency is still a challenge [1] - Companies are freeing up resources for AI development by cutting back middle management [4] - Companies are removing layers of leadership to speed up product cycles [4] Efficiency Gains - One manager is now able to do the work of three with the deployment of generative AI tools internally [5] - Microsoft is shedding 15,000 roles [3] - Amazon is pushing to flatten their org chart [3]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are improving following the release of major economic numbers, despite a drawback in EU markets due to rising unemployment and inflation in Germany [1] - U.S. indexes are experiencing volatility, with the small-cap Russell 2000 showing gains while other major indexes remain in the red [1] PCE and Inflation Metrics - July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were in-line with expectations, indicating no hindrance to the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut for the September Fed meeting [2] - Personal Income for July increased by 0.4%, the strongest since April, while Personal Spending rose by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since March [3] - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, the lowest since May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, indicating stability in inflation metrics [5] Employment and Economic Indicators - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's focus has shifted from inflation to employment concerns, with July's non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73K, which is below the previous four-month average of 54K [8] - A significant upward revision in PCE would be necessary to alter the current outlook, as weakening employment is influencing the decision for a rate cut [9] Trade and Inventory Data - Advanced Trade in Goods for July reported a deficit of $103 billion, which was more than $10 billion lower than anticipated [10] - Advanced Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories both reported a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, indicating stable inventory levels [11] Market Expectations - The upcoming week will feature new jobs reports, including July JOLTS numbers and private-sector payrolls from ADP, leading up to the significant BLS non-farm payrolls report [12]

Exclusive: Amazon plans to extend new employment offers to Whole Foods’ U.S. corporate employees https://t.co/cvBwrXkmXA ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The market has priced in an 85% chance of a September rate cut, with the remaining 15% split between no cut and a 50 basis points cut [3] - The speaker suggests the Fed is de facto running an inflation target around 2.5% to 3% due to structural changes and employment considerations [8][9] - The long end of the curve's muted reaction suggests recognition of fiscal dominance, with high deficits and debt impacting monetary policy [11][12] Fed's Actions & Communications - The speaker acknowledges the Fed's recognition of higher employment risks but criticizes the lack of clarity on post-September policy and structural changes' implications [3][4] - The speaker expresses disappointment that Jackson Hole address didn't cover long-term strategy issues and lessons learned [5][7] - The speaker points out the Fed's tendency to be data-dependent rather than strategic [8] Sovereign Wealth Fund & Government Intervention - The speaker expresses concern about the government taking stakes in businesses beyond Intel, worrying about the blurring of ownership and control [16] - The speaker warns against government influence on business decisions, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic, entrepreneurial private sector [17][19] Global Economic Interdependence - US long-end rates are more influential globally than other countries' rates are on the US, with a beta near one for the US impacting the rest of the world [13]

Job Market Challenges - Anthropology, physics, computer engineering, commercial art and graphic design, or fine arts majors may face difficulties in finding employment [1] Career Guidance - The report provides tips for graduates to secure employment [1]