Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The 10-year note yield reached 4.11% and the 2-year note yield reached 3.60%, marking their highest levels in nearly three weeks and over a month respectively [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [8] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.17%, the lowest level in over a year [8] Group 3: Historical Context and False Positives - Historical analysis shows a false positive in 1998 where the 10-2 spread went negative without leading to a recession, contrasting with multiple instances before the 2009 recession [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern of false positives and negative spreads prior to recessions, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [6]

Leading economic figures are issuing stark warnings that the month-long government shutdown is beginning to “materially damage” the U.S. economy. Moynihan Cautions Of Economic ‘Malaise’ Amid Prolonged ShutdownBank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan, in a conversation with Fortune, cautioned that the prolonged standoff risks causing economic “malaise,” while Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated a recession is “more likely than not” if the impasse lasts through the end of the year. ...

We haven't had a recession for quite a while. Are you worried about any potential recession coming or where you think the economy's in pretty good shape. Well, I think the economy is in pretty good shape at the moment. And I think when you look at kind of the give gets, you know, in terms of tailwinds and headwinds, there are there are more tailwinds at the moment.I mean, I go back we're still running a pretty aggressive fiscal, you know, fiscal play. The infrastructure investment boom, you have you know, y ...

Market Overview & Fed Policy - A 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is generally beneficial for the credit market [1] - The market is uncertain about future rate cuts beyond the current one [2] - Tariffs initially caused inventory pre-buying, delaying the impact on prices, but Q3 is when the impact is expected to be felt [3][4] Credit Market Conditions - Credit spreads are currently tight [4] - High yield market quality is at its best in a decade, with the highest percentage of double B and lowest percentage of triple C ratings in over 10 years [5] - Current tight spreads are considered reasonable given the current risk levels [6] Investment Strategy & Economic Outlook - Equity market valuations require significant growth, while credit offers contractual returns, making credit potentially more attractive in a slowing economy [6][7] - Contractual returns in credit are yielding approximately 7% to 8% [7] - Signs of a slowdown include consumer spending trends, particularly among low-end consumers, and rising credit card delinquencies [8][9] - The market is heading into a credit picker's market, where the ability to select good credits will be crucial [10][11] - Core high yield and loan credit below investment grade are in a relatively good position with low leverage and good liquidity [11]

Core Insights - Vivian Tu, a former Wall Street trader, adapts her financial advice for her audience during economic downturns, shifting from wealth-building to recession survival strategies [1] Group 1: Emergency Fund Recommendations - Tu advises increasing the emergency fund target from three to six months of expenses to six to nine months during recessions to account for job loss and longer hiring cycles [3][4] - A larger safety net allows individuals to be selective in job offers and reduces panic-driven financial decisions [4] Group 2: Debt Management Strategies - High-interest and variable debt should be prioritized for repayment during recessions to avoid financial strain from rising costs [5][6] - Eliminating high-interest payments enhances cash flow flexibility, which is crucial when income becomes uncertain [7] Group 3: Spending Cuts Approach - Tu recommends making smart, discerning cuts to spending rather than adopting a blanket austerity approach, which can lead to dissatisfaction and failure [8] - The focus should be on eliminating convenience costs that do not add real value, while still budgeting for meaningful discretionary spending [8]

Coulda been betterCoulda been worse3-3 on plays, but my size plays won out, netting us a few hundred in profit.Pre FOMC Picks (3-3)◦ Inflation 50 + Times | NO ✅◦ Unemployment / Employment 25+ Times | NO ❌◦ Recession | NO✅◦ Dissent | YES✅◦ AI / Artificial Intelligence | NO❌◦ Pandemic | YES❌_____Live Plays from Stream (3-1)◦ Meeting 9+ Times | NO ❌◦ Feedback | NO ✅◦ Mande 6+ Times | NO ✅◦ Stagflation | NO ✅6-4 overall, BIG win on Dissent which covered the majority of the L'sOverall leaving here with a decent ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 6858, driven by soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggesting potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 6858 on Monday [1] - The increase in the index was triggered by soft CPI data released on Friday [1] - The soft CPI data indicates the possibility of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]

Welcome back. Arch Invest CEO Kathy Wood telling CNBC today that a quote reality check could be coming for AI valuations. And Bill Gates saying on Squawkbox that a ton of these investments will be dead ends.The possibility of an AI bubble of course continues to be a key focus for the markets and it is as well the focus of the latest CBC Fed survey. The Steve Leeman has those results. Steve.Yeah, maybe one of the most important economic and financial things going on, but concern is high among respondents, Da ...

Good news for law schools and MBA programs: applications are on the rise. Amid a challenging job market, students are turning to what they see as a safer bet—skilling up in hopes of becoming more attractive to prospective employers. Gen Z graduates have faced a difficult path to landing full-time roles out of college. The entry-level job market has been challenging, with limited opportunities and the threat that AI tools will automate their roles. Instead of facing the bleak job market head-on, law school ...

The BIGGEST Mention Market of the MONTH&& I got my plays.We going HARD on the NO'sGovernment Shutdown, data may be sparse.Plays Below______Inflation 50 + Times | NO◦ Has hit 5/6 times, with 4 being only 1-2 times over◦ Gov shutdown means data will be minimal, therefor i lean less talking in general, we take the coin flip for NOUnemployment / Employment 25+ Times | NO◦ Same idea as the above, data will be lower due to shutdown◦ Averages 29 mentions, with the opening part of the speeches closer to 13+ times, ...