Group 1 - The article discusses the anticipation for Ex-US equities to begin outperforming due to significant valuation differences compared to domestic equities [1] - The author has a background in the hedge fund industry, with experience as a Portfolio Manager and Domestic Equity Analyst, managing a Long/Short Equity product with gross assets exceeding 1 billion dollars [1] - The investment philosophy includes fundamental, bottoms-up value investing for long positions and catalyst-oriented short investing, complemented by technical analysis for risk management [1] Group 2 - The author expresses a beneficial long position in the shares of EDIV and DFIV through various investment vehicles [2] - The article is written independently, reflecting the author's personal opinions without external compensation [2] - There is a disclaimer regarding the lack of guarantee that past performance will predict future results, emphasizing that no specific investment advice is provided [3]

Core Insights - Alphabet (GOOGL) has achieved a market capitalization of $3 trillion, becoming the fourth company to reach this milestone, driven by a favorable legal ruling and optimism regarding its AI prospects [1][2][7] Market Performance - Alphabet shares have seen a significant increase, gaining approximately 17% since the beginning of September and 30% year-to-date, despite a recent 1% decline to around $248 [3][7] - The stock has been trending sharply higher since breaking out from a saucer pattern in late August [4][7] Technical Analysis - The relative strength index indicates bullish momentum with a reading nearing 90, but also suggests potential short-term price fluctuations due to heated conditions [4] - A spinning top candlestick pattern formed recently indicates indecision among buyers and sellers [4] - Bullish price targets based on technical analysis are projected at $261 and $286.53, with key support levels identified around $215 and $201 [6][7]

Trend Identification and Momentum - The 200-day moving average is a key indicator for identifying momentum in crypto markets, with price above indicating bullish control and price below indicating bearish control [4] - A potential buying opportunity arises when a crypto asset, after being below the 200-day moving average for weeks or months, closes a full day above it, especially when accompanied by a fundamental catalyst like a product launch or user growth [5][7] - Stablecoin supply growth is a powerful indicator; expanding supply during a 200-day reclaim increases confidence in the move's sustainability [8] - It's crucial to ignore the 200-day moving average when fundamentals, such as significant supply unlocks or team departures, contradict the technical signals [9] Identifying Market Tops and Bottoms - The PI cycle top, a combination of the 111-day and 350-day moving averages on BTC, serves as an alarm for potential market tops when the fast line crosses above the slow line [17] - The MVRV z-score (zed score) uses on-chain data to determine if BTC is over or underpriced compared to the average cost basis of holders; a high score indicates unrealized profit and potential tops, while a low score suggests market bottoms [20][21] - The zed score's behavior may differ from previous cycles due to the influence of large buyers like ETFs and digital asset treasuries, which are re-anchoring supply at higher prices [24] - The zed score is expected to be more reliable as a bottom signal due to the potential for long liquidity wipeouts and liquidations of smaller crypto treasuries during a harsh bear market [27][29] Trading Sideways Markets - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is useful in sideways markets; look for bounces when price is near support and RSI is low (30-40 or lower), and exits when price is near resistance and RSI is high (60-70 or higher) [42] - Bollinger Bands, which expand with rising volatility and tighten when the market is calm, can be combined with RSI for trading sideways markets; sell when RSI is over 70 and price tags the upper band, and vice versa [44] Market Fundamentals - Ethereum funds saw inflows of nearly $4 billion, indicating a clear allocation preference from large buyers [34] - The total stablecoin market cap is above $280 billion, providing fresh capital for price action [34] - September will see $45 billion unlocked across the altcoin spectrum, so it's better to focus on tokens that don't have heavy unlock schedules in their immediate future [35]

Core Insights - Michael James McDonald is a stock market forecaster and former Senior Vice President of Investments at Morgan Stanley, known for his advocacy of contrary opinion theory and investor sentiment measurement [1] - His first book predicted the end of the 18-year bull market and the beginning of a long-term trading range market, which occurred between 2000 and 2009 [1] - McDonald later forecasted the end of the ten-year trading range market in 2010, signaling the start of another long-term bull market, which also materialized [1] - He emphasizes that a significant portion of a stock's price is influenced by investor emotions, particularly fear and greed, and warns that when too many investors have the same expectation, it often leads to a price reversal [1] - Through his company, the Sentiment King, McDonald continues to analyze investor psychology to forecast major stock trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - Michael James McDonald emphasizes the importance of contrary opinion and investor sentiment in stock market forecasting, suggesting that emotional factors like fear and greed significantly influence stock prices [1] Group 1: Background and Publications - McDonald is a former Senior Vice President of Investments at Morgan Stanley and has authored multiple books on stock market strategies, including "A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller Coaster Market" published in July 2000, which predicted the end of the 18-year bull market [1] - His second book, "Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis," was published in 2002, further establishing his expertise in market analysis [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - In 2010, McDonald declared the end of a ten-year trading range market and the beginning of a new long-term bull market, which subsequently occurred [1] - He notes that when a majority of investors have the same expectation about a stock's price movement, it often leads to the opposite outcome, highlighting the significance of measuring investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Sentiment Analysis - McDonald has developed metrics to gauge when too many investors are expecting a particular market movement, which he refers to as the work of the "Sentiment King" [1] - His ongoing research through his company, the Sentiment King, focuses on understanding investor psychology to forecast major stock trends effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - December soybean meal futures are presenting a value-buying opportunity as prices begin to trend higher, supported by technical indicators and market conditions [1][2][3]. Technical Analysis - The daily bar chart indicates that December soybean meal futures prices are starting to trend upward, with a bullish MACD crossover signal occurring as the red MACD line crosses above the blue trigger line [2]. - Historical price data shows that soybean meal prices below $300.00 per ton have historically represented a value-buying opportunity [2]. - A breakout above the resistance level at $290.00 would enhance bullish sentiment and create a further buying opportunity, with an upside price target of $312.00 [4]. Market Fundamentals - The recent rally in the soybean market occurs despite the USDA's report of a large U.S. soybean crop expected to be harvested soon, indicating that traders have already priced in this information [3]. - Improved U.S.-China trade relations are fostering optimism among soybean bulls for increased purchases of U.S. soybeans by China in the upcoming months [3].

Group 1 - The investor has a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a portfolio split of approximately 50%-50% [1] - The investment strategy involves buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, primarily using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. during his career [1] - Wyckoff operates an analytical and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has a background in journalism and economics, having studied at Iowa State University [2] - He has worked with various financial news and advisory services, including Dow Jones Newswires and TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Investment Strategy - The company employs a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares [1] - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, with a typical investment timeframe of 3-24 months [1] - The company targets stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Screening and Analysis - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - Technical analysis is employed to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1]

What drives your #crypto investing decisions these days?• Fundamentals• Technical analysis• Market sentiment• Hype & trends ...