Market Overview - US stock futures showed positive movement with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slightly above flatline, indicating cautious optimism ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [1][19] - Major US benchmarks experienced consecutive weekly gains, with S&P 500 gaining 0.3%, Dow rising 0.5%, and Nasdaq climbing 0.9%, supported by a softer September PCE inflation reading [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is set to begin its final FOMC meeting of the year, with expectations growing for a rate cut for the first time since the inflation cycle began [3][4] - According to CME FedWatch, there is now an 88% probability of a rate cut, a significant increase from 67% a month ago, reflecting cooling inflation data and concerns over labor market resilience [6][7] Economic Indicators - A busy economic calendar includes the delayed October JOLTS report, which will provide insights into US hiring activity, layoffs, and quits, with investors looking for signs of weakening demand that could justify policy easing [8] - Additional inflation indicators and claims data later in the week will offer further context on economic cooling, consumer resilience, and wage pressures [9] Earnings Season - Earnings season is in focus with major companies like Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco set to report, which will provide insights into cloud demand, AI investment, enterprise spending, and US consumer strength [14][17][15] Commodity Market - Silver prices are hovering near historic highs, trading at $58.855, driven by ETF inflows and shifting rate expectations, with total holdings of silver-backed ETFs increasing by 590 tons last week, the strongest inflow since July [16][18] - Gold prices also edged higher, benefiting from expectations that lower US interest rates will boost demand for non-yielding stores of value [19]

Pictet fixed-income strategist Laureline Renaud-Chatelain discusses the euro-area economy, inflation and monetary policy after European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said she's comfortable with investor bets that the ECB's next interest-rate move will be an increase. Renaud-Chatelain speaks on Bloomberg Television. ...

Market Overview - Asian shares are mixed as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week [1] - U.S. futures and oil prices have risen, but tensions between Japan and China are affecting market sentiment [2] Japan's Economic Situation - Japan's Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.2% to 50,581.94 after revised data showed the economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.3% for July-September, worse than the previously reported 1.8% [3] - Japanese exports have been negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs, and public investments have declined [3] Chinese Market Performance - Chinese markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling by 0.9% to 25,841.21, while the Shanghai Composite index increased by 0.6% to 3,926.47 [4] - China's global exports rose by 5.9% in November year-on-year, surpassing $1 trillion for the year, although exports to the U.S. fell by 29% [4] Other Asian Markets - South Korea's Kospi rose by 1.3% to 4,154.85, and Taiwan's benchmark increased by 1.2% [5] - In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 decreased by 0.1% to 8,624.40 [5] U.S. Market Highlights - The S&P 500 increased by 0.2% to 6,870.40, just below its record closing level from October [5] - Ulta Beauty's stock surged by 12.7% after reporting stronger-than-expected profits and revenue [6] - Warner Bros. Discovery's shares rose by 6.3% following Netflix's announcement of a $72 billion acquisition deal [7] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with expectations of a potential cut to support the slowing U.S. job market [8] - Lower interest rates could boost investment prices but may exacerbate inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [9] Consumer Inflation Expectations - U.S. consumers have lowered their inflation expectations to 4.1% for the coming year, down from 4.5% last month, marking the lowest forecast since January [10] Oil Prices - U.S. benchmark crude oil increased by 14 cents to $60.22 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 11 cents to $63.86 per barrel [11]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed slight gains with the Dow Jones up 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 up 0.19% to 6,870.4 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.31% to 23,578.13 points [9][10] - European markets had mixed results, with the German DAX index rising 0.73% to 24,056.06 points, while the French CAC40 and UK FTSE 100 indices fell by 0.09% and 0.45% respectively [9][10] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.58% to 26,085.08 points, while the Nikkei 225 index decreased by 1.05% to 50,491.87 points [9][10] Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate is projected to reach 3% for the year, with expectations of a significant decline in inflation next year [8][10] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,464 billion as of the end of November, marking a $30 billion increase from October [11] - The total number of credit cards and combined loan cards issued in China reached 707 million, reflecting a decrease of 8 million from the previous quarter and a decline of approximately 100 million from the historical peak in 2022 [13] Company News - Baidu Group saw a nearly 6% increase in stock price, while Qifu Technology and Wanguo Data also experienced gains of over 4% [14] - Yum China announced a planned acquisition of a 51% stake in Hefei Zhongke Shengu Technology Development Co., with a tentative purchase price of 100 million yuan [14] - A-share announcements included a final issuance rate of 0.03348913% for Muxi Co., and a licensing agreement between Aowei New Materials and its affiliate Zhiyuan Innovation for 26 million yuan [14]

Australia’s central bank would be justified in taking a no-change stance when it reveals its final interest rate decision for the year, according to new data on wages and jobs.The Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Monday released a new monthly report it hopes in the future will be a leading indicator for the official numbers posted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.The bureau’s next quarterly wages index won’t be released until February, while its November labour force findings will be out on Thursday. ...

Summary of Japan Equity Market Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market and its outlook for 2026, highlighting significant structural changes and geopolitical factors impacting the market [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Normalization**: The Japanese economy is expected to continue its normalization process, overcoming previous shocks such as US tariffs, with an estimated annual upside of +8% for Japanese equities [2][3]. 2. **Inflation and Corporate Reforms**: Key drivers include an upswing in inflation, corporate reforms (involving shareholder returns, business restructuring, and growth investments), and investments focused on economic security [2][3]. 3. **AI and Geopolitical Factors**: Stock selection will be influenced by global AI expectations, with a widening performance gap among sectors due to operational resource allocation in response to inflation and geopolitical changes [3][35]. 4. **Sector Preferences**: Preferred sectors include banks and consumption-related sectors at the beginning of 2026, transitioning to AI-related sectors as the global economy accelerates [3][35]. 5. **Top Stock Picks**: Notable stock picks include: - **Technology Sector**: Tokyo Electron, Murata Manufacturing, Daikin - **Real Estate and Retail**: Mitsubishi Estate, FOOD & LIFE - **Corporate Reforms**: Toyota, Sumitomo Corporation, Panasonic, Kirin [3][4]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Fiscal Policy Impact**: The fiscal deficit is projected to widen from -0.8% of GDP in 2025 to -2.9% in 2026, which may boost GDP by approximately 0.7 percentage points [14][15]. 2. **Wage Growth and Inflation**: Wage growth is expected to persist, with base pay hikes projected to be slightly above 3%, contributing to a shift from deflation to sustained inflation [36][37]. 3. **Corporate Governance Reforms**: The Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to revise the Corporate Governance Code, which may lead to improved balance sheet efficiency and resource reallocation among Japanese companies [37][38]. 4. **Geopolitical Risks**: The minority status of the new administration raises concerns about policy execution, with potential risks of a "Japan sell-off" if fiscal expansion is not managed effectively [15][39]. Economic Projections - **GDP Growth**: Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 0.9% in FY2025 to 1.2% in FY2026, with a nominal growth rate of about 3% over the next three years [11][12]. - **Inflation Rates**: Core CPI is projected to slow from 3.1% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, but inflation expectations may sustain around 2% beyond 2027 [12][13]. Conclusion - The Japanese equity market is poised for growth driven by structural reforms, inflationary trends, and strategic investments in key sectors. However, geopolitical risks and fiscal policy execution remain critical factors to monitor as 2026 approaches [1][2][3][4].

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 December 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Battery & Materials 2026 target revised up; December production outlook: CATL the only manufacturer seeing m/m growth J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Li ...

Summary of US Rates Outlook 2026 Fixed Income Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US rates market and the economic backdrop as it enters 2026, characterized by stalled inflation progress, uneven growth, and signs of labor market weakness [2][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions - Economic growth in the US is more resilient than expected, potentially boosted by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and AI-driven capital expenditures [7]. - Consumer spending is mixed; higher-income consumers are driving spending while lower-income households face affordability challenges [7]. - Labor market indicators show a modest increase in unemployment and slowing nonfarm payroll growth, but the labor market has not collapsed [7][22]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Disinflation towards the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2% inflation target has stalled, with both headline and core inflation measures remaining around 3% [7][29]. - The report forecasts 10-year Treasury yields at 4.30% by the end of 2026, higher than the Bloomberg consensus of 4.06% [2][8]. - The Fed is expected to maintain a neutral duration conviction, with potential for yields to rise due to dual-sided risks to policy [6][8]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The conclusion of Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair is a focal point, with potential personnel changes at the FOMC that could influence policy views [4][51]. - The Fed is likely to commence net asset purchases, particularly in T-bills, starting in Q1 2026 to mitigate funding pressures [4][65]. Treasury Supply and Demand - The Treasury's strategy of holding coupon issuance sizes steady is expected to continue through H1 2026, with maturity extension anticipated due to persistent deficit pressures [5][71]. - The report highlights that long-dated Treasuries may underperform swaps in the coming months due to supply and demand dynamics [5][89]. Yield Curve Scenarios - Four policy paths are outlined to frame potential rates outcomes: resilient growth with sticky inflation, inflation resurgence, moderate slowdown, and severe slowdown [3][35]. - The baseline scenario anticipates bear steepening of the yield curve, while an inflation resurgence could push 10-year yields to test 5% [10][39]. Risks and Market Positioning - The balance of risks skews towards further curve steepening, with optimal positioning suggested in the belly of the curve where structural risks are lower [3][46]. - The report cautions against long positions in the front-end due to negative carry and labor market concerns limiting hawkish repricing [9][46]. Additional Important Content - The report discusses the potential impact of the IEEPA tariff decision on fiscal deficits and the Treasury's reliance on T-bills for funding [81][84]. - It notes that the relative value of T-bills may decline as policy rates decrease, potentially shifting demand towards higher-returning risk assets [80][81]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring repo market pressures and their implications for Treasury supply absorption [100]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the US rates outlook for 2026, highlighting key economic indicators, Federal Reserve dynamics, and potential investment strategies within the Treasury market.

December 5, 2025 07:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America It's beginning to look a lot like a rate cut We now expect a 25bp cut at the Dec Fed meeting, followed by two more 25bp cuts in Jan and Apr. The cut will likely be accompanied by messaging of a higher bar for cuts moving forward. Initial Black Friday reporting was better than feared, but we still expect slower real spending growth in 4Q. M Exhibit 1: We expect cuts in Dec, Jan, and Apr to a terminal target range of 3.0- 3.25% Key Takeaways | ...

Let's bring in Axio senior political reporter Alex Eisenstat. So, Alex, you've got some new reporting about the president's travel blitz to tout his economy, but what do you expect he will say Tuesday in Pennsylvania. Because Jake set that up and you kind of have to wonder how he's going to approach this.>> Yeah, look, he's going to have to address headon the fact that a lot of Americans are feeling like the price of goods is just way too expensive. The issue is for Donald Trump that he doesn't like to admi ...