Market Overview & Economic Commentary - S&P 500 rose 10% during the 2018 shutdown, suggesting temporary government shutdowns have limited impact on market [2] - Market focus shifting to Q2/Q3 earnings and the AI trade [3] - Anticipation of rate cuts on October 29th and potentially December 10th is expected to fuel market exuberance [4] - Current market conditions are compared to the late 1990s internet bubble, with potential for irrational exuberance [5][6] - Rate cuts may not be necessary given GDP growth of 3% and persistent inflation [10] - The Fed's stance on inflation being "transitory" is questioned, especially with strong GDP growth [10][11] AI Sector Analysis - The AI space is currently perceived as having widespread potential, but is expected to consolidate to a few major players [6] - Circular investments and inflated valuations in AI are reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble [7][8] Monetary Policy & Fed Actions - The necessity of rate cuts is questioned, considering current economic indicators [9][10] - The Fed's potential rate cuts are viewed as sweeteners rather than necessities to prevent economic buckling [8] - The Fed's current approach is compared to its "transitory" inflation stance in 2021, despite evidence to the contrary [9][11]

So, what does history tell us about how the markets performed during a government shutdown. How should investors position. In the meantime, let's ask our next guests, Capital Area Planning Group managing partner and CNBC contributor Malcolm Ethridge and BTI chief market technician Jonathan Kinsky.Guys, welcome. Malcolm, typically a government shutdown is something to shrug off or perhaps uh buy a temporary dip, but with the markets performing as well as they have in September and some of the stakes here, ca ...

Market Performance During Government Shutdown - Historically, markets tend to perform at least flat during government shutdowns, with the longest recorded shutdown lasting 35 days [3] - The current administration's willingness to break norms may lead to a more prolonged shutdown, potentially impacting market performance negatively [3] Context of Current Market Conditions - September's market performance was strong, contrary to historical expectations, which raises questions about the reliability of historical patterns during government shutdowns [5] - The absence of a pullback before the shutdown could indicate a different market reaction this time [6] Focus on AI Trade and Consumer Sentiment - The AI trade has been a significant driver of market performance, with major companies like Nvidia contributing positively [9] - Investor focus remains on the sustainability of the AI trade, regardless of consumer and job numbers [10] Technical Indicators and Market Risks - The S&P has gone 105 trading days without testing its 50-day moving average, marking the fourth longest streak since 1990, which may suggest a potential pullback of 3 to 4% [11] - Weakness in consumer-facing sectors, such as restaurants and retailers, could pose risks to the broader market if these trends continue [12][13]

Core Insights - The stock market is experiencing volatility despite major indexes reaching record highs, influenced by the AI trade and strong economic data that may affect Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [1] Economic Data Focus - The key event for the week is the nonfarm payroll report, with economists predicting an addition of 45,000 jobs in the last month, a significant increase from the 22,000 jobs added in August [3] - The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, with the job market's strength being a critical focus for investors as it influences the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [3][4] - Traders are currently pricing in two more rate cuts by the end of the year, but a strong jobs report could lead to a reassessment of these expectations [4] Additional Labor Market Indicators - Other labor market data to be released includes job openings and labor turnover, with expectations of 7.1 million openings, down from 7.2 million in September [6] - ADP private payrolls are expected to show an addition of 40,000 jobs, down from 54,000 in September [6] - Initial jobless claims are anticipated to rise to 228,000 from 218,000 the previous week [6] Market Sentiment - Market participants are closely monitoring labor market indicators, as any signs of weakness could impact stock performance and Fed policy [5]

Claire, the AI trade has been the absolute juggernaut in markets over the past couple of years now at least. Are there signs in your mind that things are legitimately cooling off or is this just a pause that refreshes so to speak. >> Morning, Dom.It's great to be on your show. Um, there's there's not a pause, there's an acceleration in in our view. I mean, given the fact that was announced between Nvidia and Open AI, the importance of which we don't think can be overstated.Uh I mean this was for 10 gigawatt ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a rebound despite concerns about overvaluation and risks related to inflation and labor weakness, as highlighted by JPAL's comments [1][2] - The AI trade remains strong, with continued positive performance from AI-related companies, indicating that this sector is still in its early stages of growth [3][2] Earnings and Market Sentiment - There is a lull in earnings reports, with significant companies like Costco and Nike reporting soon, leading to a quieter market period until bank earnings resume on October 14 [4][5] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamentals and technicals, tuning out the noise from political and market chatter [6] Investment Focus - The investment strategy includes a diversified approach, favoring sectors such as technology, industrials, financials, and select energy companies [7] - Vulcan Materials is highlighted as a strong investment choice due to its dominant position in the aggregates market, which is essential for construction [8][15] Company Performance - Vulcan Materials has successfully increased its pricing, raising the price per ton of aggregate by 55% over the last five years, despite facing some headwinds [13][12] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from upcoming infrastructure projects, particularly with the Space Force initiative in Alabama, which will require significant concrete supplies [9][14] Competitive Position - Vulcan Materials is recognized for its strong pricing power and high award-winning rate from municipalities, indicating a competitive edge in securing contracts [14][15] - Although Vulcan has underperformed compared to peers like Martin Marietta this year, its potential for future growth remains strong due to its market dominance [12][15]

Market Overview - Markets initially reacted to concerns about overvaluation and dual risks of inflation and weakening labor, but the uptrend may persist [1][2] - AI trade remains strong with continued beats across the street, suggesting it's still in early innings [2][3] - Market participants should tune out noise and focus on fundamentals and technicals during the earnings lull [4][5][6] Investment Strategy - The firm favors tech, industrials, financials, and select energy and power companies [7] - The firm is focusing on companies with dominant pricing power and strong EBIDA growth [12] - The firm likes Vulcan Materials due to its dominant position in aggregates and potential tailwinds from infrastructure projects and Space Force in Alabama [7][8][9][15] Vulcan Materials Analysis - Vulcan Materials has underperformed peers this year but has potential due to its dominant position in aggregates [11][15] - Vulcan Materials has increased the price per ton on aggregate by 55% over the last 5 years, leading to increased free cash flow [13] - Vulcan Materials has a high award-winning rate, especially from municipalities, increasing faster than its peers [14]

All right. So, JP Pal says the market seems uh a little frothy. I'm going to just translate what he's trying to say.I think everybody's saying that, but people keep putting their money into the markets and it keeps moving to highs. Do you think that this is sustainable, specifically with so much money pouring into the AI trade. Look, I think Jay is clearly trying to manage expectation around how many rate cuts we should be expecting, not only for the balance of this year, but as we move through 2026.The Fed ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a shift in leadership from US equities to international equities, with a notable movement of capital towards dividend-paying companies and a change in China's policy to support growth rather than control [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - There is significant momentum in the AI and tech sectors, leading investors to engage in higher beta stocks, which are considered riskier investments [2]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, characterized by low interest rates and reduced regulation, which is expected to support dividend stock investments [3]. - International markets have outperformed US markets year-to-date, with a 25% increase compared to the S&P's 14% [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A pivot is anticipated in market leadership, as the US markets have outperformed for over 14 years, suggesting a potential catch-up trade in the US, particularly in AI investments [5]. - Investing in international markets offers diversification benefits, as gains in the US are concentrated in a few tech companies, while international investments provide broader exposure and attractive valuations [6]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Expectations indicate that interest rates will continue to decline, which could positively impact the housing market due to its high GDP multiplier effect [8]. - Investors are likely to shift focus from the $7.7 trillion currently in money markets towards quality companies that offer solid dividends [8].

Market Trends & Shifts - Market leadership is shifting from US equities towards international equities [1] - Capital is moving away from cash towards dividend-paying companies [1] - China's policy is changing from control towards supporting growth [1] - Investors are shifting focus away from the $77 trillion sitting in money markets [8] Investment Opportunities & Strategies - International markets offer broader exposure and attractive valuations from a risk-adjusted return perspective [6] - US markets are trading at premium valuations, suggesting a potential pivot towards relative value areas [3] - Consider USUS ETF, which excludes America, with top holdings outside of the tech trade, showing year-to-date outperformance of 25% compared to the S&P's 14% [4] Macroeconomic Factors - Low rates and less regulation create a strong macro tailwind [3] - Bonus depreciation is reducing the effective corporate tax rate to approximately 15% [3] - Rate cuts are anticipated, potentially leading to a pivot in market focus [3] - Lower rates are expected to be a tailwind for the housing market, which has a high GDP multiplier [8] AI & Tech Sector - Momentum in the market is heavily influenced by the AI and tech trade [2] - Gains in the US market are concentrated in a handful of tech companies [6]