Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential risks associated with the current market dynamics, particularly in relation to AI investments and the performance of major tech stocks, while also pointing out opportunities in other market segments. Group 1: Market Risks and Dynamics - Clients are increasingly concerned about potential risks that could disrupt the current market rally, especially as earnings season approaches [2][3] - There is a noted dispersion in performance among the "magnificent seven" tech stocks, with only four outperforming the S&P 500, indicating that not all AI-related stocks are performing equally [4] - The market may experience downward pressure from large-cap stocks like Nvidia, which, despite being a significant contributor to S&P gains, ranks low in terms of price performance [4][9] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is a broadening of the AI narrative beyond just major tech companies, with opportunities emerging in sectors like power generation and data centers [6] - Certain market segments, such as heavily shorted stocks and non-profitable tech stocks, have shown significant gains, with some meme stock baskets up over 100% since April 8 [7] - The market may still present interesting opportunities even if leading stocks are dragging down index returns, as seen in previous market cycles where underlying performance improved despite poor index performance [10][12]

We do look at overall financial conditions and we we we ask ourselves whether our our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that we that is what we're trying to achieve. But um but you're right it it it by many measures for example equity prices are are are fairly highly valued. >> That was Fed Chair Jay Pal at a local Chamber of Commerce event near Providence, Rhode Island yesterday.Joining us right now to talk about it is Anastasia Amarosa. She is chief investment strategist of private weal ...

We'll go to the markets here as we watch the first trading day of a new week and we're modestly green. The dust now settling from the rate cut which leaves us Joe where Goldman Sachs is David Cen today raising his 12 month S&P target. Raised a few of them but the 12-month target is now 7200.It is Goldman's Tony Pascarella who makes the call I referenced at the top of the show today too. Don't fight it. Don't chase it.Do I love the positioning setup and tactical riskreward. I don't. With that, uh, do I think ...

Market Overview - Futures are slightly lower at the start of the trading day, but there are lingering bullish tones in the market [1][5] - The market has experienced a significant run recently, indicating potential fatigue in pre-market futures [5] Earnings and Economic Data - Key earnings reports are expected this week, including Micron after the bell tomorrow and Costco on Thursday [2] - Important economic data will be released, including PMIs, durable goods, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and personal income and outlays [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - A steady flow of Federal Reserve speakers is anticipated this week, discussing recent interest rate decisions and economic outlooks [4][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is currently around 91.9%, with market expectations heavily influenced by upcoming economic data [12][14] Inflation and Labor Market - The consensus for the year-over-year PCE inflation rate is expected to tick up slightly to between 2.6% and 2.7%, while the core PCE is projected to remain flat at around 2.9% [13] - Ongoing labor market data will be crucial for future discussions on interest rates, with more job-related data expected in early October [14] Gold and Risk Sentiment - Gold prices are rising, attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market and a weaker dollar [6][7] - The VIX is higher, indicating increased market volatility, while yields on 10-year notes have drifted lower [8][9]

US stocks are trading at record levels with earnings season right around the corner, and improving expectations for Corporate America’s profit growth indicate that the rally can keep going https://t.co/HtIbBP72s5 ...

Group 1 - The second quarter earnings season is concluding with mostly positive results, as 98% of S&P 500 companies have reported, leading to an expected 11.9% increase in earnings per share [1] - Analysts had initially projected a 5% rise in S&P 500 earnings for Q2, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2023, influenced by factors such as President Trump's tariffs and economic uncertainty [2] - A variety of companies have reported earnings this week, including Zscaler, NIO, Salesforce, and others, with particular attention on Nvidia's earnings from the previous week [3] Group 2 - Additional companies reporting include PDD Holdings, Alibaba, Okta, and several others, indicating a broad range of corporate earnings updates from the market [4] - For ongoing updates on earnings reports and analysis, resources are available for the latest financial news [5]

Economic Overview - Q2 GDP improved to +3.3%, marking the best growth in nearly two years, with a 30 basis points increase from the initial print and 20 basis points above expectations [2] - Consumption rose to +1.6%, the best quarter since Q4 of the previous year [2] - The Pricing Index remained unchanged at +2.0%, down from +3.8% in Q1, indicating cooling inflation [3] - Core Pricing reached +2.5%, 100 basis points lower quarter over quarter [3] - Inventories decreased to -3.3% in Q2 from +2.6% in Q1, while Net Trade improved to +5% this quarter from -4.6% last quarter [3] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 229K, slightly below the expected 230K, marking the eighth downward shift since June [4] - Continuing Claims stood at 1.954 million, down from the revised 1.961 million, remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [5] Earnings Reports - Dollar General (DG) reported earnings of $1.86 per share, exceeding estimates by +19.23%, with revenues of $10.73 billion, a +0.47% beat, and raised guidance [6] - Best Buy (BBY) posted earnings of $1.28 per share, surpassing expectations by +4.9%, with comparable sales turning positive at +1.5% [7] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) reported earnings of $4.38 per share, exceeding estimates by +2.1%, and raised future guidance despite a recent acquisition miss [8] - Burlington Stores (BURL) saw earnings of $1.59 per share, beating consensus by +25%, with revenues of $2.71 billion, a +2.5% beat [10] Market Expectations - Pending Home Sales for July are expected to bounce back to +0.3% from -0.8% the previous month, following a year-over-year decline of -2.8% in June [11] - Major companies such as Marvell Technologies, Dell Technologies, and Ulta Beauty are set to report Q2 earnings later in the day [12]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K, exceeding expectations by 10K and increasing by 11K from the previous week, marking the highest level since June [2] - Continuing Claims approached 2 million, reported at 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey showed a negative reading of -0.3, significantly lower than the expected 7.0 and the previous month's 15.9, indicating a decline in manufacturing output [3] - New Orders fell to -1.9, a decrease of 20 points month over month, while Shipments remained positive at 4.5 [3] Company Earnings - Walmart reported Q2 earnings of 68 cents per share, slightly below the Zacks consensus by 5 cents and only a penny above the previous year's earnings, with revenues of $177.4 billion, surpassing estimates by 1% [4] - Walmart revised its revenue guidance higher for the full fiscal year despite the mixed results [4] Market Expectations - Flash S&P Services and Manufacturing PMI for August are anticipated to cool down, with Services expected at 55.0 and Manufacturing at 49.5 [5] - Existing Home Sales for July are projected to decrease to 3.91 million annualized units from 3.93 million the prior month [6] - U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) are expected to improve to -0.1% for July from -0.3% in June [6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Earnings season continues with companies like Zoom Communications, Workday, Ross Stores, and Intuit expected to report quarterly earnings, with Intuit projected to achieve a year-over-year earnings growth of 33% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The second-quarter earnings season is concluding, with over 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, and the retail sector is prominently featured this week [1] Company Performance: Home Depot - Home Depot reported its second consecutive earnings miss, with adjusted EPS of $4.68 compared to expectations of $4.71, reflecting a 0.64% miss, and total revenues of $45.28 billion versus $45.51 billion, a 0.5% miss [6] - The company experienced a 0.86% increase in net income year-over-year and a 4.9% increase in revenues compared to the second quarter of 2024 [6] - Comparable sales increased by 1.0%, with U.S. comparable sales rising by 1.4%, although foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total comparable sales by approximately 40 basis points [7] - Home Depot reaffirmed its guidance for total sales growth of approximately 2.8% for the fiscal year, with comparable sales growth of 1.0% and an expected adjusted EPS decline of 2% to $15.24 [9] - The company is facing challenges from elevated interest rates and a slowdown in the home improvement sector, which has seen reduced demand due to high mortgage rates and rising home prices [4][10] Industry Context: Home Improvement Sector - The home improvement sector is currently ranked in the bottom 16% of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries, with most stocks considered overvalued and expected to experience below-average earnings growth [3] - The sector has been adversely affected by a broader operating environment characterized by high interest rates and weak discretionary spending, leading to a slowdown in large-scale home remodeling projects [4] - Despite the challenges, the aging housing stock and rising home equity levels are expected to support long-term demand in the home improvement market [18] Upcoming Performance: Lowe's - Lowe's is expected to report second-quarter earnings of $4.24 per share, a 3.41% improvement year-over-year, with revenues anticipated to climb 1.47% to $23.93 billion [12][15] - The company has not missed earnings estimates since 2019 and has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.22% [13] - Lowe's has expanded its reach to larger professional customers through the acquisition of Artisan Design Group, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in new home construction and large-scale renovation projects [16]

S&P 500 companies trounced expectations this earnings season after they found ways to blunt the impact of tariffs and benefitted from a weaker dollar, according to Goldman strategists https://t.co/DxdfdQVdhP ...