Manica, what are you hearing on the ground from the bank which hires a lot of foreign talent on that H-1B visa. Hi, it's nice to connect again. You know, it's been a dramatic weekend and I was talking to JP Morgan's top leadership exactly about the impact that this new H1B visa rule will have on hiring in the US and whether it will result in more offshoring um which can have a counter impact here in India.And so this is what the Apac CEO of JP Morgan told me about the total cost in terms of this H-1B visa a ...

Group 1 - The equity markets are reaching new highs, indicating a market adjustment to tariffs, but potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs could impact the U.S. debt load [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut its overnight lending rate, yet bond yields are rising, suggesting a complex market response [2][3] - Mortgage rates are nearing their lowest in a year, influenced by lower inflation and the Fed's movement towards a neutral stance [3] Group 2 - Tariffs are generating record revenue, contributing to a more sustainable fiscal position for the U.S., which may lead to lower interest rates over time [4][15] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has been criticized for its low estimates of potential GDP growth, which contradicts observed economic indicators such as strong blue-collar wage growth and capital expenditure recovery [12][13] - The CBO projects that tariffs could reduce deficits by $4 trillion over a decade, highlighting their significance in fiscal planning [15]

Join us now with his reaction to the Fed's decision and chairman Pal's comments. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, you're okay, right. You you were enjoying things.You're you're getting your thoughts together uh and everything. Hopefully the guy with the lawnmower is uh is not coming out today. Kevin, >> that was funny last week.>> Unbelievable. Um 25 basis points. Um it's a start.How what how do you view that. You know, my old friend Alan Greenspan used to say that monetary policy steering i ...

Join us now with his reaction to the Fed's decision and chairman Pal's comments. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. You're okay, right.You you were enjoying things. You're you're getting your thoughts together uh and everything. Hopefully the guy with the lawnmower is uh is not coming out today.Kevin, >> that was funny last week. >> Unbelievable. Um 25 basis points.Um it's a start. How what what how do you view that. You know, my old friend Alan Greenspan used to say that monetary policy steer ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a limited path for interest rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient economy and persistent inflation [1][2]. Economic Projections - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is expected to decline to 3.4% by the end of 2026, which is only a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the 3.6% projected for the end of 2025 [2]. - The Fed has revised its outlook for real GDP growth in 2026 upward to 1.8%, indicating a stronger economy than previously anticipated [4]. - The projection for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.6%, which supports the Fed's decision to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period [5]. Internal Divisions - There is significant disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the future path of interest rates, with some members advocating for rate hikes while others suggest substantial cuts [6]. - The wide range of opinions among FOMC members is evident in the 2025 projections, contributing to a cautious outlook for 2026 [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's policy decision, the stock market exhibited mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declining, while the Dow Jones index increased [8]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.12% to $659.18, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) decreased by 0.20% to $590.00 [8].

Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate remains low but has edged up, with job gains slowing and downside risks to employment rising [1] - Inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated [1] - Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated [3] - GDP growth rose at a pace of around 1% to 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year [3] - The moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending [3] - Business investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from last year's pace [4] - Activity in the housing sector remains weak [4] Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point (0.25%) [2] - The Committee also decided to continue to reduce its securities holdings [2] Economic Projections - The median participant projects GDP to rise 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year [4]

Economic Indicators - The core PCE number, which the Fed focuses on, is expected to remain close to 3%, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [3] - Recent inflation data suggests that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but an additional rate cut this year has been added, increasing the total expectation to three cuts [7] Labor Market - There is clear evidence of a weakening labor market, with an ongoing rise in the unemployment rate, which could lead to downward pressure on wages and alleviate inflation concerns in the future [5][4] Market Sentiment - Despite inflation concerns, bullish sentiment in the market is likely to continue, supported by new all-time highs in both the US and overseas markets [6][8] - Investors appear to be looking for reasons to sell stocks, but the current conditions may continue to support and propel stock prices [8] Consumer Impact - The impact of economic conditions on working-class consumers in Q4 is critical, with wealth gains primarily accruing to upper-income consumers rather than lower-income ones [9][10] - Price pressures may persist into the holiday shopping season due to tighter inventories, influenced by tariffs [11] Home Furnishings Sector - The home furnishings subindustry, including companies like Wayfair and RH, has performed strongly, driven by lower rates and increased consumer spending on home upgrades [12]

Trade Negotiations & Agreements - The US aims to get India to open its market and cease purchasing Russian oil, which has increased to 40% of their oil imports post-sanctions, enabling them to refine and sell it globally [1] - A significant deal is anticipated with Taiwan, and a deal is likely with Switzerland [1] - While a deal was made with South Korea, its implementation is pending paperwork completion, unlike Japan, which has followed through [1] Success Stories & Economic Impact - Europe, with a $20 trillion economy and 450 million people, has agreed to open completely to America, including accepting US cars with a 15% payment [1] - Japan has committed $550 billion to invest for the benefit of America, including projects like the Alaska pipeline, nuclear power plants, grid improvements, and generic antibiotics production [1] - Tariffs are reportedly bringing in $40 billion per month, reducing the deficit [1] Manufacturing & Economic Growth - Factories are expected to be built in America on an unprecedented scale following the August 1st deal with various countries [1] - Over $10 trillion in factory construction is anticipated, leading to a surge in construction jobs [1] - GDP growth is projected to exceed 4% next year due to construction activities [1]

Trade Negotiations - India is under pressure to open its market and cease purchasing Russian oil, which has increased from 1% to 40% of its oil imports since the Ukraine war began [1] - Upcoming trade deals are anticipated with Taiwan and Switzerland, while South Korea's compliance with agreements remains to be seen [1] Success Stories in Trade Agreements - The trade agreement with Europe involves 450 million people and a 20 trillion dollar economy, allowing for complete market access to the U.S. and a 15% tariff payment [1] - Japan has committed 550 billion dollars for investments in the U.S., including infrastructure projects like the Alaska pipeline and nuclear power plants, in exchange for tariff reductions [1] Economic Impact - Tariffs are generating 40 billion dollars monthly, contributing to deficit reduction without significantly causing inflation [1] - A projected 10 trillion dollars in factory construction is expected, leading to a surge in construction jobs and GDP growth exceeding 4% next year [1]

try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...