Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate on Wednesday, potentially signaling another cut in December to support hiring and stimulate the economy [1] Interest Rate Cuts - A rate cut on Wednesday would mark the second reduction this year, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for consumers, particularly for mortgages and auto loans [1] - The average 30-year mortgage rate has decreased from 6.6% to approximately 6.2% since Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated potential rate cuts in late August, which may help the sluggish housing market [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is navigating an unusual economic period, making future moves more difficult to predict than usual [1]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced a pullback after reaching record intraday highs, with the S&P 500 briefly dipping into negative territory before posting modest gains [1] - The Dow increased by 255.49 points (0.5%) to 47,800.08, the Nasdaq rose by 68.16 points (0.3%) to 23,705.62, and the S&P 500 gained 5.40 points (0.1%) to 6,880.56 [1] Economic Indicators - The early strength in the market was attributed to optimism regarding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China, alongside a rare metals deal between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. showed a modest decline, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index falling to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in September, below economists' expectations of 93.4 [5] Sector Performance - Steel stocks saw significant gains, with the NYSE Arca Steel Index rising by 1.8%, marking its best intraday level in over fifteen years [6] - Software stocks also performed well, reflected by a 1.3% increase in the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index [6] - Conversely, computer hardware stocks faced pressure, leading to a 2.0% decline in the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index [6] - Airline, utilities, and commercial real estate stocks exhibited notable weakness, which limited broader market gains [7] Upcoming Events - Traders are anticipating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, with expectations of a quarter-point interest rate cut [3] - The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 87.9% chance of another quarter-point rate cut in December, while views on further cuts in early 2026 are mixed [4] - Major tech companies, including Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Amazon, are set to report their quarterly results soon [4] Global Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets mostly declined, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index down by 0.6% and China's Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2% [8] - European markets showed mixed performance, with the French CAC 40 Index down by 0.2%, the German DAX Index stable, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index up by 0.7% [9] - In the bond market, treasuries showed modest strength, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note decreasing by 1.4 basis points to 3.983% [9]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly lower by -0.05% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which may result in a dovish outcome with potential hints of further rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy and lead to interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of an overall 115 basis point reduction by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2 - The dollar has underlying support from a +0.6 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield, as well as stronger-than-expected reports from the Richmond Fed and US consumer confidence [2] - The FOMC meeting will not release a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning no updates on the Fed's dot plot will be provided, but Fed Chair Powell will address the media post-meeting [4] - There is market anticipation for an update on the potential end of the Fed's quantitative tightening, which could positively impact stock and bond markets by increasing liquidity [5] Group 3 - The August FHFA US house price index rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline, while the S&P CoreLogic CS US 20-city house index rose +0.19% month-over-month and +1.58% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [6] - The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased by 13 points to -4, which was stronger than market expectations of a 5-point rise to -12 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates, influenced by lower-than-expected inflation data and a softer labor market, which may create favorable conditions for various investment areas [1][2]. Investment Areas - **Short-Term Bonds**: The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) is expected to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts, with an annual yield of 4.29%, making it an attractive option for investors [3]. - **Dividends**: The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) is highlighted as a solid investment during economic uncertainty, providing a steady income stream with an annual charge of 2.48% and 6 basis points in fees [4][5]. - **Homebuilding**: The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) may see increased interest as lower mortgage rates could encourage more Americans to enter the housing market, with an annual yield of 0.55% and 38 basis points in fees [6]. - **Growth Stocks**: The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) is positioned to perform well in a low-rate environment, as reduced borrowing costs can enhance company expansion and future earnings [7]. - **Auto Sector**: The First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ) could benefit from improved buyer sentiment due to lower rates, despite only modest reductions in monthly payments for consumers [8].

In the next 48 hours or so, there will be two major market-moving events. The Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell will announce new interest rates tomorrow, and US President Donald Trump will meet with Premier Xi Jinping the day after. Regardless of the outcome, the BTC USD price will move. So far, there are hints of strength. Even though Bitcoin bulls should build on the series of higher highs posted over the weekend, what’s crucial for structure traders is whether the digital gold will float above $110,00 ...

Market Overview - European stocks are expected to open flat to higher, with the U.K.'s FTSE index slightly up, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 down by 0.2%, and Italy's FTSE MIB just below the flatline [1] Federal Reserve Meeting - The U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins on Tuesday, with a 96% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut anticipated by the market [2] - Traders are looking for signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding another potential rate cut at the final meeting of the year in December due to concerns about a weakening labor market [2] Economic Data and Geopolitical Concerns - The Fed is facing an economic data blackout due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, with limited recent data available, including last week's inflation report [3] - Geopolitical issues, particularly the U.S.-China trade dispute, are also significant for investors, with a meeting scheduled between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea to address trade tensions [3] Trade Negotiations - Both the U.S. and China appear to be in a conciliatory mood, having agreed on a framework for a potential trade deal that includes topics such as rare earths export restrictions, soybean purchases, and TikTok [4] - President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with President Xi during their upcoming meeting at the APEC Summit [4] Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports in Europe on Tuesday include Novartis, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, Air Liquide, Iberdrola, ASM International, and Logitech [5] - HSBC, Europe's largest lender, reported third-quarter profits that exceeded expectations [5]

Group 1 - US stock futures are stabilizing after reaching new record highs, with major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hovering around flat lines as investors assess President Trump's trade actions in Japan [1][2] - The S&P 500 closed above 6,800 for the first time, reflecting rising optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal [2] - Attention is focused on upcoming events including Big Tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate decision, and a meeting between President Trump and China's President Xi [2][3] Group 2 - President Trump signed trade deals in Japan, emphasizing military spending and support for Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [3] - The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting is underway, with markets anticipating a second interest-rate cut and looking for insights from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future rate cuts [3] - Earnings reports from major companies such as Visa, UnitedHealth Group, and PayPal are expected, with significant attention on upcoming results from major tech firms including Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft [4]

After a brief pullback, the US dollar ended the week softer again, as U.S. inflation and a strong equity market rally recalibrated risk appetite. September CPI undershot consensus on both headline and core measures, with the core component rising at its slowest pace since June. Thus, fed fund futures moved to reflect an almost guaranteed 25 bps cut at next week's FOMC meeting, and likely one more cut by year-end.The US dollar’s repricing propelled commodity currencies. NZD, AUD, and CAD all marked gains. Co ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed that the list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been winnowed down to five, with the winner likely to be named by the end of the year.Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Bessent said the finalists are current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, according to several media outlets.Those names ...

Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold futures opened at $3,967.20 per ounce, nearly flat with Tuesday's close of $3,966.20, and moved above $4,000 in early trading [1] - The price of gold has changed as follows: one week ago: -3.5%, one month ago: +5.7%, one year ago: +43.3% [7] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 99.9% probability that the target federal funds rate will drop to a range of 375 to 400 basis points from the current 400 to 425 [1][2] - Limited data due to the government shutdown has made it challenging for the policymaking committee to evaluate economic risks [2] Group 3: Impact of Interest Rates on Gold Demand - Falling interest rates typically increase demand for gold by making cash and other interest-bearing assets less appealing [3] Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Common ways to invest in gold include physical gold, gold mining stocks, gold ETFs, and gold futures [8] - Each investment option has its own pros and cons, affecting investor decisions [5][6][11][14][18][19][20]