Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In April, both offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB depreciated against the USD, with a notable increase in the average price difference between the two, indicating a shift in the currency market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Market - The average daily price difference between CNY and CNH increased by 82 basis points (BP) to 170 BP compared to the previous month [1][3]. - The offshore RMB bond issuance decreased to 360.34 billion CNY, a decline of 13.1% from the previous month, with 95 bonds issued, an increase of 3 bonds [4]. - The CNH HIBOR rates for overnight and 7-day terms rose, while the 3-month and 1-year rates fell, indicating mixed trends in the offshore money market [5]. Group 2: RMB Deposits in Hong Kong and Taiwan - As of March 2025, offshore RMB deposits in Hong Kong decreased by 7.3% to 959.84 billion CNY, while Taiwan's deposits fell by 2.1% to 110.97 billion CNY [2]. - Cross-border trade settlement in Hong Kong increased by 11.3% to 11,839.76 billion CNY, suggesting a rise in trade activity despite the drop in deposits [2]. Group 3: Foreign Participation in Domestic Markets - As of the end of April, the number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market remained stable at 231, with no changes in the number of foreign clearing banks and participating banks [6]. - The total transaction volume of foreign institutions in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market was 33,233.29 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.5% compared to the previous month [7].

冉学东 中美贸易谈判一路披荆斩棘，轻舟已过万重山。 美国政府5月12日发布行政命令称，自5月14日起，通过邮政服务从中国寄送价值不超过800美元的商品，税率将从 120%降至54%。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行。经过双方的共同努力，此次会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设 性，达成重要共识，取得实质性进展。这个利好对于国际金融市场而言是超预期的，市场报以积极回应，就汇率 市场而言，美元大幅升值，同时人民币也大幅升值。 5月12日当天美元指数上涨1.73%，人民币汇率上涨0.56%，5月13日截至12点人民币升值0.20%，连破几个整数关 口到了7.18525，而美元指数小幅下行0.21%。5月12日，人民币和美元联袂上涨的局面是比较少见的。 从目前权威媒体透露的信息来看，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了 共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税。 未来还将对一些重要议题进行磋商，主要是针对暂缓的24%关税部分；二是芬太尼问题谈判问题，当然还可能针 对具体的非税壁垒、汇率水平等进 ...

100欧元 805.64人民币 100日元 4.9184人民币 新华社北京5月15日电 中国外汇交易中心5月15日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 5月15日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 719.63人民币 100港元 92.209人民币 100英镑 955.42人民币 100澳元 463.18人民币 100新西兰元 425.23人民币 100新加坡元 553.87人民币 100瑞士法郎 856.33人民币 100加元 515.57人民币 100人民币 111.76澳门元 100人民币 59.567马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1115.1俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 253.33南非兰特 100人民币 19494韩元 100人民币 50.982阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.064沙特里亚尔 100人民币 5001.67匈牙利福林 100人民币 52.497波兰兹罗提 100人民币 92.62丹麦克朗 100人民币 1 ...

人民币汇率的支撑要素正在逐步积聚。一季度以来，AI、消费、高端制造等关键行业频现亮点，推动 市场信心回暖。宏观层面上，经济复苏基础持续夯实，呈现"生产端韧性+需求端修复"特征。 中国农业银行金融市场部高级交易员顾思蒋认为，从国内视角看，人民币汇率的支撑要素正在逐步积 聚。一季度以来，AI（人工智能）、消费、高端制造等关键行业频现亮点，推动市场信心回暖。宏观 层面上，经济复苏基础持续夯实，呈现"生产端韧性+需求端修复"特征。一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，高于去年全年的5%和去年同期的5.3%。在美国经济降速风险抬升的背景下，中美基本面的差异 有望收敛，为人民币汇率潜在升值空间夯实基础。 与此同时，伴随今年以来资本市场表现回暖，外资投资中国的热情回升。在顾思蒋看来，外汇存款积累 至新高，汇市供求结构存在反转机会。2025年以来，上证指数最大涨幅达到9%，恒生指数最大涨幅超 30%。多个调研显示，更多全球投资者正在考虑增加对中国资产的配置，相应资金流入将有助于改变汇 市供求格局。 中国人民银行近日发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》表示，坚持以市场供求为基础、参考 一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动 ...

Economic Indicators - The US April CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since February 2021, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Core CPI increased by 2.8%, marking the slowest pace since the inflation surge in spring 2021 [1] - The market's expectation for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly cooled, with an over 80% probability of maintaining rates in June [1] Corporate Performance - In April, national corporate sales revenue grew by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing a steady growth trend since last year's fourth quarter [3] - Industrial sales revenue increased by 3.7%, with manufacturing sales up by 4.4% [3] - High-tech and digital economy sectors saw sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% respectively [3] Currency Exchange - The RMB/USD exchange rate returned to below 7.2, with the central bank setting the midpoint at 7.1991, a strengthening of 75 points [7] - The RMB has appreciated against a basket of currencies, with the RMB exchange rate index rebounding significantly since April's low [7] Regulatory Actions - Five departments, including the Market Supervision Administration, have held talks with major food delivery platforms like JD, Meituan, and Ele.me to address competition issues [6] - The focus of the discussions includes ensuring compliance with laws and regulations, promoting fair competition, and protecting the rights of consumers and delivery personnel [6] IPO Developments - CATL is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially becoming the largest global IPO of the year, with expected fundraising of up to HKD 41 billion [9] - The company has received over USD 50 billion in institutional orders, indicating strong market interest [9] AI Market Trends - The usage rate of DeepSeek has dropped by over 50%, from a peak of 7% in mid-February to 3% by the end of April [11] - OpenAI's new features have led to a surge in usage for its models, indicating a competitive landscape in the AI sector [11][12] Employment Changes - Microsoft announced a reduction of nearly 3% of its workforce, affecting about 6,000 employees, as part of a strategy to streamline management levels [13][14] - This move aligns with similar actions taken by other tech giants to adapt to market changes and the challenges posed by AI advancements [13]

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup has lowered its short-term gold price target to $3,150 per ounce, expecting gold to consolidate in the $3,000-$3,300 range in the coming months [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that mid-term risks for oil prices are skewed to the downside, predicting Brent and WTI crude prices to average $60 and $56 per barrel respectively in 2025, based on strong global supply growth and demand slowdown [2] - Goldman Sachs also forecasts that OPEC+ will stop increasing oil production starting in August due to slowing economic activity and weak oil demand [3] Group 2: Trade and Currency Implications - Nomura has upgraded Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" following an unexpected U.S.-China tariff agreement, which is expected to support positive risk sentiment in global markets [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that the recent easing of the global trade war has an unclear impact on the U.S. dollar, suggesting that positive trade news benefits global economic growth more than the U.S. itself [4] - CICC suggests that if tariffs are further reduced, the Federal Reserve may have the opportunity to cut interest rates in the latter half of the year to alleviate growth pressures [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Developments - CITIC Securities expects that the issuance of new special bonds will exceed 1 trillion in both the second and third quarters of 2025, driven by a more accommodative monetary policy [10] - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the U.S. internet sector over the next 6-12 months, anticipating strong performance from major internet companies despite potential adjustments due to tariff policy changes [11] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares, focusing on three main lines: domestic demand, trade recovery, and technology [12]

近期持续回升的人民币对美元汇率在5月13日来到近段时间高点。据中国外汇交易中心数据，5月13日人 民币对美元汇率中间价报7.1991，较上一个交易日上升75个基点，为4月7日以来的最高值。 截至当天16时30分，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率分别报7.2012、7.1987，均为今年以来的最高值。 随着中美关税政策阶段性缓和，市场情绪改善，市场机构预计短期内人民币还有升值动能。北京大学国 民经济研究中心预计，5月人民币汇率将保持震荡上行，在7.0至7.3区间震荡，从拉升因素看，中国经济 继续修复，美国预期不确定性政策在短期内冲击美国经济，并推动全球经济增速下滑。 "人民币贬值压力最大的阶段可能已经过去。"王青指出，未来人民币或与美元走出相反的双向波动过 程，但波幅会相对较小；相对于其它主要货币来说，人民币走势将更为稳定。 （文章来源：证券时报） 4月份以来，尽管面临较大外部冲击，国内金融体系仍然保持稳健，金融市场展现出较强韧性，人民币 对美元汇率在4月初略有贬值后，自4月12日起逐渐回升。日前《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》公布 后，人民币对美元汇率迅速走强，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率分别在5月13日盘中触及7.1 ...

值得注意的是，近期央行频频释放稳汇率信号。5月7日，央行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的新闻发布会上 表示："坚定维护中国的汇市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行。"在近期发布的《2025年第一季度中国 货币政策执行报告》中，央行再次强调"三个坚决"——坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市 场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 展望未来，民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，人民币汇率将保持平稳双向波动格 局。随着中美贸易摩擦缓和，人民币贬值压力将有所减弱。同时，在4月下旬中共中央政治局会议提出 要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期后，国内政策也将陆续发力显效，为外汇市场的平稳运行奠定 良好基础，预计人民币汇率大概率将在合理均衡水平上维持基本稳定。 Wind资讯数据显示，5月12日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率上涨超400个基点， 在岸人民币对美元汇率上涨近330个基点。5月13日，人民币对美元汇率延续向上势头。截至当日17时， 离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.1787，创下自去年11月11日以来的新高；在岸人民币对美元汇率 盘中最高升至7 ...

荷兰银行上调人民币汇率预测，因贸易协议改善经济前景。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese yuan (RMB) has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching its highest value since April 7, driven by positive market sentiment following the US-China trade talks and supportive domestic macroeconomic policies [1][2][3] - The RMB to USD central parity rate reported by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System was 7.1991, with offshore and onshore RMB touching 7.1780 and 7.1855 respectively, marking the highest levels of the year [1] - Factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation include the unexpected reduction in tariffs from the US-China trade talks, which has boosted market confidence and led to a comprehensive appreciation of the RMB [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has indicated a commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth, which is expected to provide significant support for the RMB [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the RMB's future trajectory will depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the performance of the US dollar, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation process for the RMB [2][3] - The potential for further appreciation of the RMB is noted, particularly as the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy becomes more apparent, suggesting that the most significant depreciation pressures on the RMB may have passed [2]