（原标题：人民币"破7"冷思考 2026年升值动能与回调压力并存） 2025年人民币兑美元汇率走出"先弱后强"的走势，从年初至4月初在7.30-7.35震荡偏弱，到4月后迎来趋 势性拐点由贬转升，年末离岸、在岸人民币汇率双双突破"7"这一关键心理关口，分别创下2024年9月、 2023年5月以来新高。 这一轮升值行情背后，是美元走弱、中国经济基本面稳健、年末结汇需求释放等多重因素的共振助推， 叠加出口韧性与人民币资产吸引力提升的合力支撑。与此同时，"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基 本稳定"的政策基调已连续四年延续，央行2025年第四季度例会则进一步明确防范汇率超调风险的导 向。 展望2026年，在美联储降息预期、中国经济回升向好等利好因素与外部环境不确定性的交织作用下，人 民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，而是双向波动行情。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三大因素：中美两国经济恢复 的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进，其中，国内经济恢复情况决定汇 率双向波动的中枢方向。 多重因素共振助推破7 2025年以来，人民币对美元汇率呈现"先弱后强"的走势。从 ...

记者丨边万莉 编辑丨周炎炎 2025年人民币兑美元汇率走出"先弱后强"的走势，从年初至4月初在7.30—7.35震荡偏弱，到4月后迎来趋势性拐点由贬转升，年末离岸、在岸人民币汇率 双双突破"7"这一关键心理关口，分别创下2024年9月、2023年5月以来新高。 这一轮升值行情背后，是美元走弱、中国经济基本面稳健、年末结汇需求释放等多重因素的共振助推，叠加出口韧性与人民币资产吸引力提升的合力支 撑。与此同时，"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定"的政策基调已连续四年延续，央行2025年第四季度例会则进一步明确防范汇率超调风险的导 向。 展望2026年，在美联储降息预期、中国经济回升向好等利好因素与外部环境不确定性的交织作用下，人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，而是双向波动 行情。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三大因素：中美两国经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对 外经贸关系的演进，其中，国内经济恢复情况决定汇率双向波动的中枢方向。 多重因素共振助推破7 2025年以来，人民币对美元汇率呈现"先弱后强"的走势。从年初至4月初，人民币汇率震荡偏弱，人民币兑美元 ...

导读 12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0大关，为2024年9月以来首次。进入2025年下半年，人民币对美元汇率整体呈现阶段性走强态势，在岸与离岸市 场同步抬升，并不断刷新阶段高点。与此前单边承压阶段不同，此轮人民币升值并非由单一因素驱动，而是在美联储政策节奏调整、美元指数波动加剧、 中美宏观基本面差异逐步收敛以及国内政策预期持续修复等多重因素交织作用下形成，呈现出更为复杂的运行特征。基于此，本文结合"IMI财经观察"特 约评论员及多位学界、业界知名专家观点，系统梳理人民币汇率阶段性走强的驱动因素与内在基础，并对当前政策管理取向及后续走势进行深入评析。 01 人民币汇率全年走势回顾 2025年以来，人民币汇率运行呈现出典型的"先抑后扬"特征。年初至4月，在特朗普重返白宫后再度推动"对等关税""芬太尼关税"等极限施压政策背景 下，全球贸易摩擦升温，多边贸易体系受阻，美元指数阶段性走强，叠加全球产业链供应链重塑预期，人民币汇率一度承压，境内中间价与即期汇率同步 回调，离岸人民币一度贬破7.40，触及2015年"8·11"汇改以来的阶段性极值区间。进入5月后，随着中美经贸谈判有序推进，美元指数在高位震荡并逐 ...

文 | 人民币观察 大河 图 | 微摄 综合市场主流机构预测与核心驱动因素演化趋势，2026年人民币汇率将以"温和升值为主基调、双向波动常态化、先升后稳显韧性"为核心特征，汇率中枢有 望突破7.0整数关口，全年运行区间预计在6.7-7.2之间。智通财经综合9家机构预测显示，2026年底人民币兑美元汇率有望收于6.7-7.0区间，其中德意志银行 预测更为乐观，认为到2026年底人民币兑美元将升值至6.7，2027年底进一步升至6.5；东吴证券预计2026年底人民币对美元或升向6.7-6.8；南华期货则认为 全年核心波动区间为6.80-7.15。 2025年，全球金融市场经历货币政策转向与经济格局重构的深度调整，人民币汇率在内外因素交织作用下走出"先弱后强、波动收窄"的鲜明轨迹。年末，离 岸人民币成功突破7关键关口，为2026年走势奠定偏强基础。展望新一年，在美联储降息周期延续、中国经济韧性凸显、人民币国际化进程加速等多重积极 因素支撑下，市场主流预期人民币将延续温和升值态势，但全球经济复苏分化、地缘政治博弈等不确定性仍可能引发阶段性波动。深入解析人民币走势的核 心驱动逻辑与未来演化路径，对企业经营、跨境投资及宏 ...

港股市场核心宽基：恒生ETF（159920） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 相关ETF： 中国AI核心资产：恒生科技指数ETF（513180） 高弹性特征突出：港股通科技ETF（159101） 12月25日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061。从历 史经验来看，在人民币汇率上行周期中，恒生指数、恒生科技指数等港股资产表现较好。 当前正处于美联储降息周期中，美元指数的走弱为人民币汇率的抬升创造了较为友好的外部环境；中国 经济的韧性与吸引力则构成了坚实的基本面支撑，叠加年底临近或有结汇需求释放，均支撑人民币汇率 抬升。 ...

还有常被忽视的一点：人民币国际化稳步推进。现在更多国家愿意用人民币结算贸易，各国央行也将人 民币纳入外汇储备。这种"用脚投票"的市场选择，逐渐改变了美元独大的旧格局，给了人民币长期升值 的潜力。 不过，人民币走强对普通人的影响是双面的。好处很明显——留学、海淘、出国游更划算，企业进口原 材料成本降低。但也要看到，出口企业会面临价格压力，可能影响部分行业就业。汇率从来都是双刃 剑，关键在动态平衡。 展望未来，人民币汇率大概率会保持双向波动，既不会单边大涨，也不会断崖下跌。因为决策者更看 重"稳"而不是"强"，适度波动有利于经济转型。对咱们普通人而言，与其猜测汇率涨跌，不如想想如何 利用这种变化——比如在汇率合适时配置些海外资产，或关注进口商品消费机会。 最近，不少朋友发现人民币越来越"硬气"了——出国旅游换汇时能多换点美元，海淘时感觉外国商品变 相打了折。这背后可不是运气，而是实打实的市场变化。今天咱们就聊聊，人民币为啥悄然走强了。 首先，中国经济基本面的支撑是关键。你看，尽管外部环境复杂，但咱们的产业链完整、内需市场庞 大，这就像给人民币装上了"稳定器"。当其他国家为通胀发愁时，咱们的物价整体平稳，让人民币资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with the RMB appreciating nearly 5% from its April low of 7.43 to around 7.07, marking a new high since October 14 of last year [1] Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation is significantly influenced by the market's rising expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has increased to approximately 80% since the dovish signals from the Fed on November 21 [1] - Despite fluctuations in the US dollar index due to the depreciation of the Japanese yen, the RMB has maintained a robust position, indicating a dual strength of both the dollar and the RMB [1] - The recent RMB appreciation is largely driven by market forces, reflecting a broader trend of strengthening against most currencies [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The foundation for the RMB's strength lies in China's resilient economic fundamentals, with exports continuing to grow despite US tariffs, and a GDP growth target of 5% appearing achievable [2] - China's significant position in the global supply chain and trade system provides a strong basis for its economic resilience amid trade tensions [2] - The recent policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition have stabilized key economic indicators, alleviating market concerns about persistent price declines and interest rate cuts, thereby boosting market confidence [2] Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - The questioning of the US dollar's credibility due to high debt levels and protectionist tendencies has created opportunities for the internationalization of the RMB, with its global trading volume rising to $817 billion daily, accounting for 8.5% of global forex trading [3] - As of the end of October, the scale of offshore RMB loans by financial institutions reached approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 37.5% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated international use of the RMB [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the solid economic fundamentals of China and the overarching trend of RMB internationalization, the RMB is likely to continue its strong performance [4]

Core Insights - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has surprised many, with the exchange rate reaching 7.0905, a one-year high, indicating a stronger yuan compared to earlier this year when it hovered around 7.3 [1][3] - Despite concerns about capital outflows, foreign investment in Chinese assets has shown resilience, with northbound capital in A-shares increasing by over 380 billion yuan this year, reaching a total market value of 2.58 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 [3][4] Currency Exchange Rate - The yuan's exchange rate has improved significantly from earlier in the year, with a notable rise from 7.3 to 7.0905, marking a strong performance [1][3] - The dollar index peaked at 109.24 earlier this year, a historically high level, raising concerns about the yuan's potential depreciation [1][3] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital has not fled the Chinese market as previously speculated; instead, it has been accumulating Chinese assets during market fluctuations [4][5] - As of November 18, foreign investors held significant stakes in several A-shares, with some exceeding 24% ownership, indicating strong interest [4] Institutional Perspectives - International investment banks and funds have expressed improved outlooks on Chinese assets, citing valuation advantages and supportive policies as key reasons for their optimism [5][6] - Short-term capital movements do not reflect a loss of confidence in the Chinese market; rather, they are part of normal portfolio adjustments [5][6] Economic Fundamentals - The long-term trajectory of the yuan will depend on economic fundamentals, with China's economy showing resilience, particularly in emerging sectors like renewable energy and digital economy [6][8] - The current exchange rate mechanism is more market-oriented, allowing for healthier fluctuations, which is a positive sign for the currency's stability [8][9] Investment Opportunities - The stable yuan provides a favorable environment for investment, with ongoing foreign capital inflows indicating the attractiveness of Chinese assets [10][12] - A stable exchange rate is beneficial for trade, reducing currency risk for businesses, although it may impact price competitiveness for exporters [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The founder and chairman of Bison Asset, Wang Guohui, expressed a strong bullish outlook on the Chinese capital market, citing the "MIT" advantages of Manufacturing, Innovation, and Talent as key reasons for this optimism [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing - China has established a robust manufacturing ecosystem over the past thirty years, which includes not only factories and machinery but also a comprehensive infrastructure of ports, airports, roads, and power plants [1] - The application of artificial intelligence in manufacturing by Chinese companies is expected to enhance this advantage in the coming decades [1] Group 2: Innovation - Historically, many Chinese companies have been reluctant to invest in innovation, preferring to utilize existing technologies for short-term returns [1] - The presence of a significant number of Chinese engineers in top U.S. tech companies indicates a strong potential for innovation, with companies like DeepSeek making breakthroughs in large language models [1] Group 3: Talent - The talent pool in China includes proactive and creative entrepreneurs, engineers, and industrial workers, which is a significant source of confidence in the country's future [2] - Visits to innovative companies, such as a biotechnology firm in Chengdu with founders educated in the U.S., reinforce the belief in China's potential for future development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound of the RMB against the USD reflects its resilience, supported by improving economic fundamentals in China and various influencing factors for future trends [1][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of August 29, the onshore RMB appreciated from 7.1805 to 7.1330 against the USD, marking a nearly 10-month high. The offshore RMB also surged to 7.1182, gaining over 340 points [2]. - In August, the onshore RMB rose by 0.83%, reversing the previous month's decline and recording the largest increase in three months. The offshore RMB increased by 1.21%, the highest monthly gain since September 2024 [2]. - The RMB's central parity rate strengthened from 7.1321 on August 22 to 7.1030 on August 29, with a nearly 1.2% increase since the beginning of the year [2]. Economic Fundamentals - The core driver behind the RMB's appreciation is the overall improvement in China's economic fundamentals, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% in Q2 [3]. - Several international investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, shifting their asset allocation recommendations from neutral to "overweight" [3]. - The market's positive sentiment towards RMB is bolstered by strong export performance and increased global interest in Chinese equity assets [3]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Hedge funds are increasing their bets on RMB appreciation, with targets set for the exchange rate to exceed 7.0 by year-end [4]. - The consensus in the market suggests that the RMB will gradually stabilize and appreciate, although specific predictions on the extent of appreciation vary [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that September will be a critical period to observe if the RMB can break the 7.0 mark, particularly if the USD weakens post the Federal Open Market Committee meeting [6]. - Predictions suggest that the RMB could appreciate to 6.98 against the USD within the next 12 months, supported by strong fundamentals [6]. - Potential factors influencing RMB fluctuations include the release of accumulated settlement funds and the guidance of the central parity rate [6].