Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound of the RMB against the USD reflects its resilience, supported by improving economic fundamentals in China and various influencing factors for future trends [1][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of August 29, the onshore RMB appreciated from 7.1805 to 7.1330 against the USD, marking a nearly 10-month high. The offshore RMB also surged to 7.1182, gaining over 340 points [2]. - In August, the onshore RMB rose by 0.83%, reversing the previous month's decline and recording the largest increase in three months. The offshore RMB increased by 1.21%, the highest monthly gain since September 2024 [2]. - The RMB's central parity rate strengthened from 7.1321 on August 22 to 7.1030 on August 29, with a nearly 1.2% increase since the beginning of the year [2]. Economic Fundamentals - The core driver behind the RMB's appreciation is the overall improvement in China's economic fundamentals, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% in Q2 [3]. - Several international investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, shifting their asset allocation recommendations from neutral to "overweight" [3]. - The market's positive sentiment towards RMB is bolstered by strong export performance and increased global interest in Chinese equity assets [3]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Hedge funds are increasing their bets on RMB appreciation, with targets set for the exchange rate to exceed 7.0 by year-end [4]. - The consensus in the market suggests that the RMB will gradually stabilize and appreciate, although specific predictions on the extent of appreciation vary [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that September will be a critical period to observe if the RMB can break the 7.0 mark, particularly if the USD weakens post the Federal Open Market Committee meeting [6]. - Predictions suggest that the RMB could appreciate to 6.98 against the USD within the next 12 months, supported by strong fundamentals [6]. - Potential factors influencing RMB fluctuations include the release of accumulated settlement funds and the guidance of the central parity rate [6].

银河证券分析师高乐表示，随着沪指近期站稳3600点之上并不断走高，部分投资者开始更多关注中国经 济基本面能否进一步改善并为大盘走强提供动能。而最新披露的7月中国进出口等重要经济数据向好， 这对沪指当天的上涨起到了积极作用。 消息面上，中国海关总署7日公布的数据显示，7月中国货物贸易进出口总值3.91万亿元，同比增长 6.7%。其中，出口同比增长8%；进口同比增长4.8%，连续两个月增长。 中新社北京8月7日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国A股7日(周四)表现总体平稳，主要股指互有涨跌。其中，上证 指数当天高开震荡，最终飘红收官，并再创收盘点位的年内新高。 截至当天收盘，上证指数报3639点，涨幅为0.16%；深证成指报11157点，跌幅为0.18%；创业板指报 2342点，跌0.68%。沪深两市成交总额约18255亿元(人民币，下同)，较上一个交易日放量约914亿元。 板块方面，根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，小金属板块当天上涨2.94%，领涨A股所有行业板 块。个股方面，正海磁材、宁波韵升当天股价收获涨停板，其中正海磁材录得约20%的涨幅。(完) ...

美元指数走软背景下，人民币兑美元汇率继续走强 （大公文汇网记者 倪巍晨 上海报道）美元指数走软背景下，人民币兑美元汇率继续走强。8月4日，人民币中间价报 7.1395，较上一交易日调升101点，升幅为今年1月21日以来最劲，离岸与在岸人民币兑美元早盘也均收复7.2关。分析 称，美国最新非农就业数据断崖式下跌，加剧市场对美国经济衰退的忧虑，美元指数也终结反弹，这是人民币兑美元汇 率走强的主因。同时，中美最新贸易谈判取得积极进展，以及二季度中国经济超预期表现，也为人民币汇率保持基本均 衡提供支撑，下半年人民币汇率或续偏强，年末汇价有望升见7.1。 市场数据显示，人民币兑美元汇率中间价从6月末的7.1586升至7月末的7.1494，呈现偏强势头。瑞银财富管理投资总监 办公室（CIO）指出，近期中国政府放宽境外投资额度、扩容「债券通」项下「南向通」，并鼓励在跨境贸易中更多使 用人民币，一系列举措凸显了金融管理部门对人民币日益增强的支持态度。与此同时，二季度中国GDP同比增速优于预 期，加之强劲的出口势头及中美关税风险的缓和，宏观形势为人民币汇率提供支撑。该团队强调，年内美元DXY指数 已下跌10.5%，同期人民币仅上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's economy is maintaining stable growth despite complex challenges, with a long-term positive outlook remaining unchanged [1] - Consumption and technology are identified as the two main supports for the economic fundamentals, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5% year-on-year from January to May, showing acceleration compared to the first quarter [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector is experiencing strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in May, indicating a transition from a "manufacturing giant" to a "strong manufacturing nation" [4] Group 2 - China is projected to contribute approximately one-quarter of global economic growth by 2025, highlighting its role as a significant engine for the world economy [6] - The Chinese government's macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beneficial for the global economy, suggesting the need for more fiscal stimulus measures to counter external shocks [6] - The recent China-U.S. trade talks are expected to boost market risk appetite, potentially leading to a positive outlook for A-share listed companies in the second quarter [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar indicates a strengthening of the Chinese economy and positive foreign sentiment towards the yuan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The offshore yuan reached a high of 7.1780 against the US dollar, while the onshore yuan peaked at 7.1855, both marking the highest levels of the year [3]. - The recent surge in the yuan's value is compared to a significant recovery, reflecting a reversal from previous declines [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as beneficial for Chinese citizens, making overseas travel and purchases more affordable [5]. - The stability of the Chinese economic fundamentals and effective macroeconomic policies are credited for the yuan's recovery [5][7]. Group 3: Public Sentiment - There is a general sense of optimism among the public regarding the yuan's performance, with some humorously suggesting its dominance in the global market [5]. - The public is encouraged to maintain a rational perspective on currency fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of steady economic practices [7].