With high inflation such a recent memory, American consumers angrily insist that everything is already too expensive. Households have little tolerance for paying even higher prices. The opposite may be true of foreign companies https://t.co/DcWynwg5W1 ...

Core Insights - Amazon's low-cost essentials have seen an average price increase of 5% since President Trump's inauguration, as reported by The Wall Street Journal [1] - Amazon refuted the WSJ's findings, claiming that the analysis was flawed and that price changes were due to promotions ending rather than tariffs or inflation [2] - The company highlighted that its pricing is dynamic, which can lead to fluctuations, indicating sensitivity to the topic and potential concerns about government retaliation [3] Pricing Analysis - The WSJ analyzed 2,500 common items on Amazon, including cough drops and antibacterial wipes, to determine price changes [1] - Amazon pointed out that some items were on sale during the initial data collection, which skewed the findings [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.3% increase in consumer prices for June, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, suggesting broader inflationary trends [4]

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question for you. As you wrap up the EU leg of these trade deals, you look ahead to the China deal that many are looking towards as well. Can you guarantee Americans still that they won't see an increase in prices as many economic analysts do believe that they will.Well, I think we need to look at the data. Uh obviously in in the first Trump term, we put a lot of tariffs on China. Uh in the first Trump term, we put a lot of tariffs on China and inflation went down.Right now, we've had more tariffs on China ...

Earnings Reports - Q2 earnings season is ramping up with major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon set to report earnings this week [2][3] - A total of 164 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to release their earnings results by August 1st [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, maintaining the current rate of +4.25-4.50% [4] - There is only a 2% chance that the Fed will cut rates at this meeting, with a 67% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in September [5] Labor Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims have decreased to 217K, but the labor market may be weakening as ADP reported a negative -33K jobs filled in June, the first decline in over two years [7] - The BLS report indicated +147K new jobs in June, but only about 70K were outside government hires, which may not be sufficient to offset the retiring workforce [8]

From @WSJopinion: The Fed might have to raise the target rate to bring down inflation, writes William L. Silber https://t.co/4EusTP6sVc ...

Consumer & Economy - US consumer is holding in pretty well, supported by bank earnings, and consumer health is crucial as it represents approximately 69% of the economy [1][2] - Executive sentiment regarding future prospects is more important than backward-looking data, as it will drive corporate activity in the next 6 months and impact the broader macro view [3][4] Market Sentiment & Valuation - Market exhibits bullishness, especially among retail investors, indicated by the resurgence of meme stocks, crypto, and SPACs, requiring close monitoring [5] - Current valuations appear stretched relative to historical data, but valuations are more useful on a 5 to 10-year horizon [4][5] US-China Trade - US relies on China for rare earth minerals, potentially for another decade before achieving self-sufficiency [6] - China needs US chips, and US needs its chip and AI companies to thrive for wealth creation, suggesting a need for compromise between both countries [7] Fed Independence & Monetary Policy - Reduction of Fed independence could lead to a weaker currency, higher inflation, and higher long-term yields, as seen in other countries [10][11] - The market is closely watching potential dissents within the Fed, as two governors dissenting is not common and could impact rate volatility [13] - There is disagreement on whether the economy needs a rate cut, with some arguing that the stock market's all-time high suggests rates are not overly restrictive [15] Inflation & Tariffs - There is a risk of higher inflation in the second half of the year, potentially jeopardizing expectations of two Fed rate cuts by January [19] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain, with a possibility of increased tariff impact due to wound-down inventories and stricter government regulations on transshipments [17][18] AI & Productivity - The Fed's ability to model the productivity gains from AI over the next 18 to 24 months is questionable, making it difficult to set appropriate Fed funds rate [16] - Setting monetary policy based on uncertain AI productivity gains is considered nonsensical [17]

Let's get to Ed Yardi. Yardenni uh research president. You think I mean we've had the case made that the the stock market is wrong.Basically what someone was saying earlier about the way it's react because it's going to be anti-growth. Even the trade deals themselves. This individual Roger Alton said the trade deals themselves are anti-growth and inflationary and the stock market is just ignoring it because of AI.I guess was >> well I I I think the stock market is uh just discounting the facts that we've le ...

With high inflation such a recent memory, American consumers angrily insist that everything is already too expensive. Households have little tolerance for paying even higher prices. The opposite may be true of foreign companies https://t.co/UrvXKAxqVA ...

Core Insights - The current US stock market is at a critical juncture where macroeconomic conditions and industrial transformations are intertwined, with disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence driving productivity gains while inflation and monetary policy uncertainties challenge market stability [1] Industry Opportunities - Structural opportunities are primarily found in the technology revolution, with the industrialization of generative AI extending from infrastructure to application layers, benefiting cloud services, semiconductor equipment, and specific software service providers from capital expenditure waves [3] - Certain consumer giants with pricing power and global supply chain advantages demonstrate strong cost pass-through capabilities in an inflationary environment [3] - The biotechnology sector is experiencing value reassessment opportunities due to accelerated new drug approvals and a resurgence in merger and acquisition activities, particularly for innovative companies with clear pipelines [3] Market Challenges - Major stock indices remain at historically high valuations, making them sensitive to interest rate changes, with the pace of inflation decline potentially slower than expected [3] - The timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift is uncertain, and prolonged high-interest rate environments may suppress growth stock valuations [3] - Earnings divergence is increasing, with industries overly reliant on low-cost financing or facing weak demand experiencing downward pressure on profits [3] - Geopolitical risks pose potential disruptions to supply chains and energy prices, necessitating vigilance [3] Sector Differentiation - Technology giants maintain relative strength due to cash flow advantages and technological barriers, but regulatory policy changes and capital return efficiency should be monitored [4] - The financial sector sees marginal relief in net interest margin pressures, yet risks associated with commercial real estate remain a challenge [4] - The industrial and materials sectors are significantly influenced by the global manufacturing cycle, with increasing regional performance disparities [4] - While essential consumer goods exhibit defensive characteristics, valuation premiums may limit upside potential [4] Investment Strategy - In light of the complex landscape of the current US stock market, a "quality first, moderate diversification" core strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality companies with stable cash flows, strong technological barriers, and relatively reasonable valuations while remaining cautious of overvalued thematic stocks [5] - Utilizing market volatility to optimize holding costs and avoiding emotional trading behaviors is advised [5] - Close monitoring of inflation data and employment market changes is essential for timely assessment of interest rate impacts on corporate valuations [5] - Portfolio construction may benefit from cross-industry and cross-market capitalization diversification to smooth volatility while retaining some liquidity to address potential risk events [5][6] - Continuous evaluation of the core competitiveness and sustainable profitability of investment targets is a pragmatic approach to navigating market uncertainties [6]