Core Inflation Insights - Core PCE inflation is projected to have risen 2.9% in September, moving away from the Federal Reserve's target of a 2% annual rate [1] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures index is expected to show a 2.8% increase over the 12 months ending in September, up from 2.7% in August, marking the highest level since April 2024 [1] - If the report aligns with expectations, it would indicate that core PCE inflation has exceeded the Fed's target for 55 consecutive months [1] Economic Implications - Inflation has been a persistent issue since 2021, with forecasts suggesting it will not return to pre-pandemic levels in the near future [1] - The upcoming report was delayed due to a government shutdown, but if it meets expectations, it will reflect similar annual increases as the Consumer Price Index for September [1] - Economists at Bank of America predict core PCE inflation will remain above 3% through Q3 2026 and above 2% through 2027 [1] Federal Reserve's Response - Despite ongoing inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates to support the struggling job market [1] - The Fed has maintained high rates to curb inflation but faces pressure to lower them to stimulate hiring amid a slowdown in job growth [1] - Recent discussions among Fed officials highlight the conflicting pressures of maintaining low inflation and high employment, influencing the direction of interest rates [1]

For many, credit cards are a convenience and, at times, a lifeline. They’re helpful in financing larger purchases and many individuals turn to them when they need to cover expenses while waiting on their next paycheck to arrive. While it’s always important to use credit cards cautiously, 2026 could be the worst year to rely on credit cards — find out why below. For You: Fidelity Says This Is a Surprising Risk of Holding Too Much Cash — Do You Have Too Much? Read This: 6 Safe Accounts Proven To Grow Your Mo ...

Core Insights - The corn market is experiencing strong export demand but is hindered by large supplies, leading to price stagnation [1][3] - Concerns about US corn supplies for the 2026 planting season are emerging, with expectations of tight vendor supplies [2] - The soybean market is currently waiting for significant export business, particularly from China, which has not yet materialized [6][10] Corn Market Analysis - The national corn index recently climbed above $4 for the first time since last spring, indicating some market momentum [3] - Despite solid demand, the weak basis suggests that there is still an abundance of supplies available [4] - If demand decreases during winter, the market could weaken due to the ample bushels on hand [4][5] Soybean Market Dynamics - The soybean market is seeing commercial activity but lacks substantial sales, particularly from China, which is a key player [6][9] - Weekly export sales and shipment numbers are lagging, indicating a delay in catching up with demand [8] - There is speculation that some sales to China may be occurring below reportable levels, which could affect future reporting [9] Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to result in a quarter-point rate cut, which could weaken the US dollar and support commodities [12][15] - Political factors are currently influencing market movements more than traditional economic indicators [13] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could impact crude oil markets, but current reactions have been muted [19] Silver and Biofuels Outlook - Increased demand for silver, driven by electric vehicle production, has led to record prices, with silver crossing $58 recently [21] - Changes in fuel economy standards could affect both the silver market and ethanol demand, as a shift towards gasoline vehicles may increase ethanol usage [22]

Malaysia’s improving fiscal outlook, moderating inflation and resilient currency are enhancing the appeal of its bonds, positioning them for continued gains into next year https://t.co/EeSXXd5dWl ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to "reset" fuel efficiency standards for passenger cars to address rising auto prices and inflation concerns, which have been exacerbated by previous regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - The average price of a new vehicle reached an all-time high of over $50,000 in October, indicating a significant increase in auto prices [4]. - Overall inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been rising monthly since the announcement of tariffs on imported goods, including automobiles [3]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The proposed changes to fuel efficiency standards are expected to save consumers approximately $109 billion, equating to about $1,000 off the average cost of a new vehicle, although the timeline for price reductions remains uncertain [5]. - The new standards will roll back efficiency mandates established by the Biden administration, potentially altering automakers' long-term strategies and product development plans [6]. Group 3: Industry Response - Executives from major automotive companies, including Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors, expressed support for the new standards, emphasizing the need for alignment with market conditions and customer affordability [10]. - Following the announcement, shares of Ford and GM increased by about 1%, while Stellantis' stock rose by 4.7%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the policy shift [10].

US stocks edged up on Wednesday as a surprise decline in private-sector employment revealed cracks in the job market, but also reinforced bets on a Fed rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.9%, or over 400 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.2% after the major gauges finished Tuesday with gains across the board. The ADP report looked to add fuel to the rate-cut fire, as nearly 90% of bets sit on a quarter-point redu ...

Renminbi Exchange Rate and Policy Recommendations - The renminbi is at its weakest since 2012 in real effective terms, having depreciated about 16% over the past ten years [2] - The US dollar is at its strongest in almost 40 years in real effective terms, although it has weakened from an index of 110 at the beginning of the year to about 100 [2] - Exchange rates should be determined by market forces, considering fundamentals, interest rates, and capital flows [7] - Policymakers should consider a combination of monetary and fiscal easing to achieve both a stronger renminbi and escape the low inflation zone [14] - A modest appreciation of the renminbi is unlikely to hurt Chinese companies' competitiveness [16] Renminbi Internationalization - The renminbi is already a reserve currency as it joined the SDR basket ten years ago, but its share is still low at 2% to 3% [18] - The shift from high to low interest rates in China makes it cheaper to borrow in renminbi, favoring internationalization [20] - Further opening up access to Chinese markets for foreigners and vice versa is needed [21][22] - More Chinese bonds should be issued both domestically and offshore to supply safe assets [23] Consumption and Investment Strategies - Boosting labor income requires a strong job market, while transfer income has slowed due to local government difficulties [24][25] - The marginal propensity to consume in China has decreased from $0.68 to $0.66 per dollar earned, indicating cautiousness [26] - Both Hong Kong and mainland markets are good strategies for equity allocation, considering the global monetary reset [31][32]

It's been a frustrating period for those who have been priced out of the housing market due to high mortgage rates and home prices. Mortgage rates remain significantly higher than those from 2021, and prices for both new and existing homes have surged. Worse, would-be homebuyers, including my son and his wife, have been forced to compete against all-cash offers, making homebuying even more challenging. There's little debate that something needs to change, which is why many are closely watching the Federa ...

Odds of an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week jumped in the wake of disappointing November private payroll figures, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick arguing President Trump’s tariffs were not to blame for the numbers.US private payrolls lost 32,000 jobs last month – a sharp downward turn mostly accounted for by small businesses, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. In contrast, October saw an upwardly revised increase of 47,000 jobs.The November figure larg ...

Core Insights - Retailers are implementing various strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of inflation and tariffs on their businesses [1] Group 1: Strategies Employed by Retailers - Retailers are focusing on attracting wealthier customers to boost sales [1] - The use of celebrity advertisements is being leveraged to enhance brand appeal and drive consumer interest [1] - Some retailers are resorting to store closures as a strategy to streamline operations and reduce costs [1]