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【申万宏源策略】美国衰退预期发酵,资金流出美股流入欧股——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250307-20250315)
申万宏源研究· 2025-03-17 01:10
Global Asset Price Review - The recent comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary regarding tariffs have heightened concerns about a potential economic recession, leading to a decline in global equity markets while commodity prices generally increased [1][6]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.31%, and the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.15% to 103.7 [1][6]. - The performance of global equity markets varied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.59%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 2.27% [1][6]. Global Fund Flows - There was a notable shift in global fund flows, with money moving out of U.S. equities and into European stocks, alongside inflows into money market funds and government bonds [2][12]. - In the past week, domestic investors withdrew $18.2 million from the Chinese stock market, while foreign investors added $9.7 million [2][12][14]. Global Asset Valuation - The economic recession expectations in the U.S. have led to significant adjustments in U.S. equity valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing, while China's asset ERP has decreased [3][9]. - The historical ERP for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stands at 12%, indicating relatively low valuations compared to the rising ERP of U.S. indices [3][9]. Global Asset Risk Indicators - The proportion of retail investors bullish on U.S. stocks has reached a historical low, while bullish sentiment among A-share investors remains strong [4][11]. - The CBOE volatility index has increased, reflecting heightened market uncertainty, while the Shanghai Composite Index's options market shows a strong bullish sentiment [4][11]. Global Macro Economic Observations - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector, while inflation rates are showing signs of decline [5][10]. - In contrast, China's manufacturing PMI and new orders PMI have shown marginal improvement, remaining above the expansion threshold [5][10].
突破QDII瓶颈:全球化配置的进阶路径
Morningstar晨星· 2025-03-06 00:51
最近,不少投资者都有这样的疑问: "QDII又双叒限购了,想买点海外基金这么难吗?" 在波动成为常态的全球市场中,如何突破工具限制,构建真正具备韧性的资产配置框架,成为 越来越多投资者关心的问题。 往期推荐 免责条款:©【2025】 Morningstar 保留所有权。此处提供的信息、数据、分析和观点不构成投资建议;截至撰写日期, 仅供参考;可随时更改,恕不另行通知。本内容并非买卖任何特定证券的要约,也不保证其正确性、完整性或准确性。 过往表现不保证未来结果。Morningstar 名称和标识是 Morningstar, Inc.的注册商标。这里的内容包含 Morningstar 的专 有资料;未经Morningstar 事先书面同意,不得以任何方式复制、转载或以其他方式使用本文章的全部或部分内容,在社 全球资产配置的核心价值,在于通过地域与资产类别的双重分散,优化投资组合的长期 风险收益比。 当境内市场经历阶段性调整时,海外成熟市场的权益资产可能正处于估值 修复周期;当本币汇率波动时,持有其他币种计价的资产可以有助于对冲风险。在QDII 额度受限的情况下,投资者需要将视野投向更广阔的跨境投资工具箱。 目前, ...
突破QDII瓶颈:全球化配置的进阶路径
Morningstar晨星· 2025-03-06 00:51
想进一步了解如何借助晨星的数据与工具优化跨境投资策略? 欢迎扫码或点击文末 " 阅读原 文 " 获取更多信息: 往期推荐 免责条款:©【2025】 Morningstar 保留所有权。此处提供的信息、数据、分析和观点不构成投资建议;截至撰写日期, 仅供参考;可随时更改,恕不另行通知。本内容并非买卖任何特定证券的要约,也不保证其正确性、完整性或准确性。 过往表现不保证未来结果。Morningstar 名称和标识是 Morningstar, Inc.的注册商标。这里的内容包含 Morningstar 的专 有资料;未经Morningstar 事先书面同意,不得以任何方式复制、转载或以其他方式使用本文章的全部或部分内容,在社 目前,两类机制为境内投资者提供了可行路径:一是,运作近十年的 内地与香港互认基金 机 制,通过严格筛选的40余只香港注册基金,为投资者提供直达亚太市场的配置工具;二是,依 托粤港澳大湾区政策创新的 跨境理财通 ,不仅将个人投资额度提升至300万元,更涵盖超过 2000只(不同份额合并计算)涵盖股债的多品类产品,显著拓宽了资产选择半径。 对于具备大湾区户籍或社保条件的投资者来说,跨境理财通"南向 ...