Well, good morning, Steve. Thank you for joining us on this non jobs day. Jobs day.We get no government primary economic data because of the shutdown right now. So let me start by asking if that continues. As a member of the Open Market Committee, would you feel comfortable voting for a significant cut in interest rates if you don't have data on employment and on inflation.Good morning and thanks for having me. Look, I think it's important to recognize, first of all, that as you're pointing out, access to h ...

Market Overview - Stocks are expected to move higher in early trading, continuing the upward trend seen in recent sessions, with S&P 500 futures up by 0.1 percent [1] - Major averages have reached new record highs despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [1] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Traders appear to be unconcerned about the economic impact of the shutdown, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned it could negatively affect U.S. economic growth [2] - Bessent highlighted that the shutdown could lead to a decrease in GDP and impact working Americans [2] - The delay in the release of key U.S. economic data, including the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, is a significant concern for the markets [2][3] Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is an expectation that the government shutdown may last until mid-October, which could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed interest rate decisions [3] - The ISM's services PMI is anticipated to slightly decline to 51.7 in September from 52.0 in August, but a reading above 50 still indicates growth [4] Stock Performance - Major averages closed higher for the fifth consecutive session, with the Nasdaq up by 88.89 points (0.4 percent), the Dow rising by 78.62 points (0.2 percent), and the S&P 500 increasing by 4.15 points (0.1 percent) [5] - Mixed performance was observed in overseas trading, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rising by 1.9 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling by 0.5 percent [5] European Market Trends - Major European markets showed mixed results, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index up by 0.5 percent, while the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index fell by 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively [6] Commodity Prices - Crude oil futures increased by $0.25 to $60.73 per barrel after a previous decline [6] - Gold futures rose by $17.90 to $3,886 per ounce following a significant drop [6] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar is trading at 147.35 yen, up from 147.23 yen, and valued at $1.1730 against the euro, compared to $1.1714 previously [7]

The State Bank of Vietnam plans to keep pursuing policies to spur growth while containing inflation, aiming to boost lending to businesses even as it controls credit to riskier sectors https://t.co/TBn4tiirWw ...

Well, the S&P and NASDAQ pulling back after hitting fresh record highs at the open. Joining us with his outlook, PNC asset management, chief investment strategist, Young Ma, thank you so much for joining us. I mean, there's so much to talk about here, but I guess we really should start with the news of the day being, of course, this government shutdown moving into day two.And if you look back at history and the four or so shutdowns that lasted more than a day in the last 30 years, most of them had a muted e ...

The country grew rich on Chinese demand. Now it must find a new model for growth https://t.co/Bwnv1bIQBf ...

Economic Growth - GDP增长通常被认为是经济增长的标志 [1] - 经济增长可以提高生活水平 [1] Potential Risks - 不均衡的经济增长可能导致通货膨胀 [1] - 不均衡的经济增长可能加剧不平等 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc has been a leading tech stock, excelling in e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising, yet its stock performance has disappointed investors recently [1][2]. Stock Performance - Despite the broader equity market reaching new highs, Amazon's stock has not surpassed its all-time high of $240 from February [2]. - The stock has encountered resistance at the $240 level multiple times over the past nine months, indicating a potential "triple top" pattern, which is a bearish signal [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The triple top pattern suggests that buyers are losing confidence at the $240 price point, making it increasingly difficult for the stock to break through this ceiling [4][6]. - The recent inability of Amazon to capitalize on favorable market conditions raises concerns about the sustainability of its bullish momentum [6]. Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo upgraded Amazon's rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, indicating a stronger commitment to the bullish outlook, especially in light of the stock's struggles to break the $240 barrier [7][9]. - The upgrade is significant as it reflects a high degree of confidence in Amazon's potential to overcome current resistance levels [9]. Growth Drivers - The upgrade from Wells Fargo is based on expectations surrounding Project Rainier, which aims to accelerate growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) amidst increasing demand for AI workloads [10]. - Amazon's advertising business is also highlighted as one of the fastest-growing segments, alongside its robust e-commerce operations, particularly with the upcoming Prime Day expected to drive significant consumer spending [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - Amazon possesses multiple growth drivers that provide a strong long-term outlook, despite recent stock performance challenges [12]. - The underlying business fundamentals remain solid, suggesting that the stock may soon gain enough momentum to reach new highs [12].

Market Overview & Outlook - Equity market experienced a phenomenal recovery, with low stocks up 38% since Liberation Day [1] - A potential 5-10% correction is possible, considering the S&P's forward multiples at approximately 22 times earnings and the 10-year Treasury yields slightly above 4% [2] - The market is expected to see a rolling rotation, with profit-taking from the "Magnificent Seven" benefiting small-cap, value, and international stocks [3] Earnings & Revenue Performance - Second-quarter revenues increased by 6% year-over-year, and earnings increased by 12% year-over-year, both exceeding expectations [4] - Third-quarter revenues are projected to increase by approximately 6-7%, with earnings expected to show solid double-digit growth [4] - Federated Hermes is reevaluating and increasing its earnings estimates for the remainder of the current year and the following year [5] Economic Indicators & GDP - The U S GDP estimate for the next year is 28%, while the blue-chip consensus is 15% [6] International Markets - International stocks are considered attractive due to valuations being 40% cheaper than domestic stocks, compared to a typical discount of 20% [8] - The dividend yield on international stocks is approximately 29%, significantly higher than the S&P's 12% [8] - A weak dollar and accommodative foreign central banks are expected to facilitate stronger economic and earnings growth in international markets [9] - The company maintains an overweight position in international assets, viewing them as a favorable subcategory [10]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing an inflection point with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time this month due to a weakening labor market, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [1][3] - Increased uncertainty is attributed to changes in trade policy, tariffs, and immigration policy under the Trump administration, affecting economic growth, inflation, and unemployment forecasts [1] Economic Growth Projections - The Federal Reserve projects real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2024, with a slowdown expected this year before a rebound, showing an annualized growth rate of 1.6% in the first half of 2025 [5] - The Fed anticipates GDP growth of 1.6% in Q4 of 2025, rising to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, before returning to 1.8% in 2028 [5] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects GDP growth of 1.4% for 2025, increasing to 2.2% in 2026, and returning to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 [6] - The Trump administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimates GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025, rising to 3.2% in 2026 and 3.1% in the following two years [6] Inflation Projections - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, recorded a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% in August [7] - The Fed projects PCE inflation to rise to 3% year-over-year in Q4 of 2025, then decline to 2.6% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, and return to the 2% target in 2028 [8] - CBO forecasts PCE inflation to reach 3.1% in Q4 of 2025, declining to 2.4% in 2026, and returning to 2% in 2027 and 2028 [8] - The OMB estimates PCE inflation at 2.4% by the end of this year, declining to 2% in 2026 and remaining there through 2028 [9] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Projections - CBO projects CPI inflation to hit 2.8% year-over-year in 2025, declining to 2.7% in 2026, and further to 2.2% in 2027 and 2028 [10] - OMB estimates CPI inflation at 2.5% this year, declining to 2.2% in 2026, then slightly rising to 2.3% in 2027, and returning to 2.2% in 2028 [10] Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with expectations for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release the September jobs report soon [11] - The Fed projects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% in Q4 of this year, gradually declining to 4.4% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027, and 4.2% in 2028 [12] - CBO sees the unemployment rate at 4.5% in Q4 of 2025, declining to 4.2% in 2026, then rising back to 4.4% in 2027 and 2028 [12] - The OMB projects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1% this year, declining to 3.9% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 and 2028 [13]

Market Risk Assessment - Investors are taking on excessive risk in South African corporate bonds [1] - The increased risk is due to the weak outlook for economic growth in South Africa [1] Company Focus - Prescient highlights the excessive risk-taking behavior [1]