Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.09%, recovering from early losses due to Eurozone fiscal concerns impacting EUR/USD [1] - The dollar found support as US weekly jobless claims fell to 224,000, close to expectations of 225,000 [3] - The dollar initially declined due to weaker-than-expected US reports on November CPI and December Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey [1][3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is increasing liquidity in the financial system by purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, which is putting pressure on the dollar [2] - There are concerns regarding President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, which could be bearish for the dollar [2] Economic Indicators - The US November CPI rose by +2.7% year-on-year, which was weaker than the expected +3.1% [3] - The November core CPI increased by +2.6% year-on-year, also below expectations of +3.0%, marking the smallest pace of increase in 4.5 years [3] - The December Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell by -8.5 to -10.2, contrary to expectations of an increase to 2.3 [3] Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming January 27-28 meeting [4] Eurozone Economic Concerns - The euro (EUR/USD) decreased by -0.20% as ECB officials indicated that the cycle of interest rate cuts is likely finished based on growth and inflation outlooks [5] - Fiscal concerns in the Eurozone are heightened after Germany announced plans to increase federal debt sales by nearly 20% to a record 512 billion euros ($601 billion) to fund increased government spending [5]

The market is going to fucking rip here sooner than later imo.CPI came in SO cool.Inflation concerns with rate cuts are out teh window.3-5 rate cuts next year seems like an inevitable situation.Risk On assets will be going much higher.Bottom is in across crypto imo.The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter):This is absolutely insane:Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the largest monthly declines since 2023.While a +10 basis point increase in inflation was expected, it actually FELL by -40 basis ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Middle Market Business Owners Survey Report by Capstone Partners reveals significant insights into the decision-making processes, growth strategies, and financial outlooks of U.S. middle market companies [1][3] Group 1: Economic Concerns and Business Adjustments - For the third consecutive year, 92.5% of CEOs identified inflation as their primary concern affecting company growth [7] - 39.7% of business owners have reduced company expenses in response to tariffs [7] - CEO perspectives on the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act are mixed, with 41.4% expecting no impact, 36.7% anticipating negative effects, and 21.9% viewing it positively [7] Group 2: Capital Markets and Growth Strategies - 57.4% of CEOs have engaged in at least one capital markets transaction in the past year to enhance growth and optimize capital structure [7] - Private equity interest in middle market businesses is rising, with 53.9% of business owners reporting contact from a PE firm in the last year [7] - Over half (55.9%) of business owners plan to implement growth strategies in the next 12 months, indicating a shift towards growth rather than just financial stability [7] Group 3: Performance Improvement and M&A Outlook - The need for performance improvement support among business owners has increased by 3.4% compared to the previous year, as they aim to maintain margins and improve operational efficiencies [7] - A record 75.8% of business owners are preparing for an exit, suggesting a potential surge in middle market M&A activity [7] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Revenue Projections - The percentage of CEOs with a very positive outlook on the U.S. economy has risen to 18.7% in 2025, marking the first increase in five years as clarity around interest rates and inflation improves [7] - Business owners anticipate continued revenue growth, with 26.9% projecting a 1-9% year-over-year increase and 27.2% expecting growth of 10-25% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts predict that lower interest rates today may lead to a spike in inflation by 2026, making dividend stocks more attractive as they can provide passive income that outpaces inflation [2]. Group 1: Dividend Stocks - Dividend stocks have accounted for 40% of the stock market's total return over the last 90 years, highlighting their importance in investment portfolios [2]. - High-yield dividend stocks trading below $20 are particularly appealing for investors looking to hedge against potential inflation increases [3]. Group 2: Energy Transfer - Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.1%, supported by its extensive pipeline network of over 140,000 miles across the United States [3]. - As a midstream company, Energy Transfer benefits from fee-based, asset-backed services, ensuring a consistent revenue stream through long-term contracts and service fees, regardless of commodity price fluctuations [4]. - The company is well-positioned to meet the growing demand for natural gas, especially as U.S. production continues to set records to fulfill export demands and data center needs [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite a 16% decline in ET stock in 2025 and three out of four quarters of adjusted earnings per share falling below expectations, this is attributed to significant capital investments rather than balance sheet weaknesses [5]. - The capital investments made by Energy Transfer were executed without increasing debt or diluting shareholders, indicating a disciplined approach to balance-sheet management [5][6].

Investors cheered the news that inflation dramatically slumped in November, but economists caution that this dip may not last. Thursday's CPI report was unusually noisy, due in large part to the fact that the BLS did not publish much of the October price data after staff were unable to collect and process information retroactively. The missing data included the headline and core monthly and annual percentage changes in the index, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions. After headline CPI readings incr ...

Core Insights - The November inflation data in the U.S. significantly underperformed market expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the anticipated 3.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6%, down from 3.0% in September, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [1] - Financial markets reacted positively, with major indices rising, U.S. Treasury yields declining, and the dollar index weakening [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - Brian Jacobsen from Annex Wealth Management noted that housing inflation, a major component of CPI, has significantly slowed down, suggesting that previous inflation drivers are no longer central to current inflation [2] - Peter Cardillo from Spartan Capital Securities highlighted that the drop in core inflation to 2.6% and overall inflation to 2.7% is favorable for both the Federal Reserve and financial markets, potentially paving the way for multiple rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 if the trend continues [2] - Jan Nevruzi from TD Securities emphasized that the inflation data fell below nearly all predictions, indicating a clear dovish trend despite potential technical issues in data collection [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Kay Haigh from Goldman Sachs Asset Management cautioned against overinterpreting the data due to the noise from missing October data, suggesting that the Fed will likely focus on the December CPI data for clearer signals [3] - Seema Shah from Principal Global Investors stated that the significant drop in November inflation supports dovish views within the Fed, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts occurring earlier than expected in 2026 [3] - Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group remarked that the inflation impact from tariffs has largely dissipated, making the case for further rate cuts clearer as the rationale for maintaining restrictive monetary policy weakens [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Chris Zaccarelli from Northlight Asset Management pointed out that there are currently no signs of sustained high inflation, alleviating concerns within the Fed about the risks of renewed inflation from continued rate cuts [4] - Zaccarelli also suggested that if dovish perspectives prevail, further monetary easing could support stock market performance, with potential for continued market gains as economic growth, corporate earnings improve, and inflation remains controlled [4]

Economic Indicators - November's inflation rate was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% [1] - The "Core" CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by only 2.6%, also below the predicted 3% [1] Market Reactions - Investors reacted positively to the inflation report, with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) rising by 0.8% in premarket trading [2] - A cooler inflation report increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, which is generally favorable for the stock market [4] Company Earnings - Micron (Nasdaq: MU) reported earnings of $4.78 per share for fiscal Q1 2026, exceeding expectations by 84 cents, with sales of $13.6 billion [5] - Micron's guidance for Q2 suggests earnings could reach $8.42 per share, significantly above the consensus forecast of $4.49, with projected sales of $18.7 billion [5] - Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS) reported earnings of $1.21 per share for fiscal Q2, slightly beating revenue projections with sales of $2.8 billion [6] - Cintas forecasts full-year profit between $4.81 and $4.88 per share, although sales may be slightly lower than expected at around $11.1 billion [6]

Economic Overview - US stocks experienced a significant rise following a cooler-than-expected inflation report, with consumer prices increasing by 2.7% year-over-year, lower than the anticipated 3.1% [1][5] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is viewed as a positive development for the market, which has been under pressure due to high valuations and concerns regarding the AI sector [4] Tech Sector Performance - The tech sector rebounded after a period of weakness, with chip stocks, particularly Micron Technology, seeing a notable increase of up to 14% following strong earnings and robust guidance [2][8] - Micron reported $13.6 billion in revenue, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $12.8 billion, and projected $18.7 billion in revenue for the current quarter, exceeding the $14.2 billion forecast by analysts [7][8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The combination of cooler inflation and a weaker job market has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing its rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for a potential 25 basis point cut by March [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the latest CPI reading indicates the Fed may be ahead of its inflation targets for the upcoming year, supporting a narrative that job market risks are rising faster than inflation risks [6][7]

Market Overview - March 10-year T-notes are up by +9 ticks, with the yield down -3.7 basis points to 4.116% [1] - T-notes reached a 1.5-week high, while the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.10% [1] - Mixed performance in overseas stock markets, with Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.57% and Japan's Nikkei down -1.03% [1] Economic Indicators - The markets are pricing in a 27% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the next FOMC meeting [2] - US November existing home sales are expected to rise +1.2% month-over-month to 4.15 million [2] - The University of Michigan's December consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be revised upward by +0.2 to 53.5 [2] Inflation and Business Outlook - The US December Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell -8.5 to -10.2, contrary to expectations of an increase [3] - US November CPI rose +2.7% year-over-year, below the expected +3.1% [3] - November core CPI increased by +2.6% year-over-year, also weaker than the expected +3.0% and marking the slowest pace in 4.5 years [3] Stock Market Movements - Stock indexes are rising, led by a rebound in chip stocks, with Micron Technology up more than +14% after a positive forecast [5] - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.79%, the Dow Jones by +0.59%, and the Nasdaq 100 by +1.43% [5] - T-notes are higher due to favorable US economic reports, including lower-than-expected CPI and a contraction in the Philadelphia Fed survey [5] European Market Developments - European government bond yields are increasing, with the 10-year German bund yield rising to an 8-month high of 2.897% [7] - The ECB maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00% and raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to 1.4% [7] - ECB President Lagarde noted the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid uncertain inflation outlook [8] Company-Specific News - Micron Technology reported Q1 revenue of $13.64 billion, exceeding consensus estimates, and forecasted Q2 revenue between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion [9] - Lululemon Athletica is up more than +6% following news of Elliot Investment Management acquiring a stake over $1 billion [11] - Merck & Co is up more than +1% after an upgrade from BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $130 [12] Declines in Specific Stocks - Insmed is down more than -14% after a failed mid-stage trial of its therapy [13] - Birkenstock Holding Plc is down more than -3% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EBITDA below consensus [13] - FactSet Research Systems is down more than -2% after forecasting full-year revenue below consensus [14]

Stocks rallied at the open, bouncing after a sharp selloff Wednesday, as a cooler-than-expected inflation report lifted hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates further. An optimistic outlook in the tech sector also lifted sentiment https://t.co/bbWQanC5KA ...