The semiconductor company has an eye-popping valuation.Shares of Broadcom (AVGO 5.36%) have been soaring this year as the semiconductor company scored major AI chip wins, but investor sentiment shifted hard last week. Broadcom stock dropped by more than 11% on Friday in reaction to the company's report for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.Broadcom's results and guidance were stellar. Revenue surged 28% year over year, adjusted EPS increased 37%, and the company forecasted strong sequential growth in the fi ...

Today, our next guest says the AI boom of course is real and rather than calling it a bubble, it's more important to know when it's going to end. Joining us here at Post9 is Matt Whitiler, head of latestage growth at Wellington Management. His firm manages more than $1 trillion of assets.And thanks for coming in. It's good to talk to you. >> Thanks for having me.>> Um, what when you think about debt uh fueling this cycle as opposed to maybe a prior cycle, is it does it make it much different. >> I don't kno ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has experienced a decline of over 17% from its recent highs despite outperforming the S&P 500 Index, driven by concerns over the AI market and increased competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported revenues of $57 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, marking a 62% year-over-year increase and a quarter-over-quarter increase of $10 billion, which exceeds previous quarterly revenues before the AI boom [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) rose by 67% to $1.30 in fiscal Q3, showcasing strong growth despite challenges in the Chinese market [4]. - Management anticipates fiscal Q4 revenues to reach $65 billion at the midpoint, representing a year-over-year rise of approximately 65% [5]. Market Dynamics - There has been a realignment among AI stocks, with companies like Apple and Alphabet rebounding, while Nvidia and Meta Platforms have seen a slowdown [2]. - Concerns regarding an AI bubble and hyperscaler spending have contributed to the decline in Nvidia's stock price [6]. - Increased competition in the AI chip market from companies like AMD, Broadcom, and Amazon is impacting Nvidia's market position [6]. - Nvidia's potential loss of business in China, estimated by CEO Jensen Huang to be a $50 billion opportunity for the company this year, poses additional challenges [6].

Joining us now, Rashir Charmer, Rockefeller International chairman, and he's the founder of Breakout Capital. All right, Rashier, you want to go through them one through four quickly if you have time. Tell me whether we're in fact in a bubble.>> Yeah, David, as you know, there's a bit of a bubble and bubble talk these days, uh, which is that everyone's talking about a bubble, but there is no standard definition of a bubble. So what I've tried to do in my FT oped this morning uh is to lay out the a framework ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in the advanced stages of a bubble, characterized by overvaluation, overownership, overinvestment, and overleverage, particularly in the tech sector [2][5]. Overvaluation - Historical data indicates that major bubbles typically see prices rise tenfold over a 10 to 15-year period, which aligns with the performance of the US tech sector in recent years [2]. - Current valuations in the tech sector are in the 95th percentile across most metrics, with only the year 2000 showing comparable levels [2]. Overownership - Americans currently hold 52% of their financial wealth in the stock market, surpassing levels seen in 2000, and indicating a significant shift in wealth allocation compared to property [3]. Overinvestment - Tech investment as a share of GDP has reached 6%, which is higher than the levels recorded in 2000, suggesting a substantial increase in capital directed towards technology [4]. Overleverage - While there has been an increase in AI-related debt, households and the private sector are not as leveraged compared to previous cycles, with the government being the primary source of increased leverage [4][5]. Market Performance - Major tech companies like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have seen stock price increases of 9%, 2%, and 12% respectively this year, but all underperform the S&P 500 [6]. - The decline in free cash flow growth for these companies is contributing to their current stock performance issues [8]. Global Market Comparison - Despite significant investment in AI, US stock markets have underperformed compared to global markets, marking the widest performance gap since 2009 [8][9]. Interest Rates as a Catalyst - Historically, rising interest rates have been the primary catalyst for ending market bubbles, indicating that any tightening in financial conditions could trigger a market correction [9][10].

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a significant decline on December 12, 2025, primarily driven by sell-offs in technology stocks due to concerns over an AI bubble narrative [1] - Investors reacted negatively to news from Broadcom, which indicated expected margin pressure in its AI business for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, despite exceeding fiscal fourth-quarter earnings estimates [1] Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, equity investors may favor dividend-growth stocks over high price-growth stocks, as companies with a history of raising dividends typically demonstrate strong financial health, providing a defensive hedge against economic uncertainty [2] - Stocks with a strong history of year-over-year dividend growth are suggested to form a healthier portfolio with greater potential for capital appreciation compared to simple dividend-paying stocks or those with high yields [2] Selected Dividend Growth Stocks - Five dividend growth stocks have been identified as potential solid choices for investment: TE Connectivity (TEL), Enersys (ENS), Donaldson (DCI), Lam Research (LRCX), and Leidos Holdings (LDOS) [3][9] - These stocks exhibit positive sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth histories, consistent dividend increases, solid fundamentals, and favorable valuation metrics [9] Characteristics of Dividend Growth Stocks - Stocks with a strong history of dividend growth are typically associated with mature companies that are less vulnerable to market volatility, thus providing a hedge against economic or political uncertainties [4] - These stocks are characterized by superior fundamentals, including sustainable business models, long-term profitability, rising cash flows, good liquidity, strong balance sheets, and value characteristics [5] - Although these stocks may not have the highest yields, they have historically outperformed the broader stock market and other dividend-paying stocks [6] Performance Metrics - Selected stocks must meet specific criteria, including: - 5-Year Historical Dividend Growth Greater Than Zero - 5-Year Historical Sales Growth Greater Than Zero - 5-Year Historical EPS Growth Greater Than Zero - Next 3-5 Year EPS Growth Rate Greater Than Zero [7] - Additional metrics include a Price/Cash Flow ratio less than the industry median and a 52-Week Price Change greater than the S&P 500 [8] Individual Stock Insights - **TE Connectivity (TEL)**: Expected fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 10.2%, long-term earnings growth rate of 12.3%, and an annual dividend yield of 1.23% [10][11] - **Enersys (ENS)**: Projected fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 4%, long-term earnings growth rate of 15%, and an annual dividend yield of 0.71% [11][12] - **Donaldson (DCI)**: Anticipated fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 3.4%, long-term earnings growth rate of 10%, and an annual dividend yield of 1.30% [12] - **Lam Research (LRCX)**: Expected fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 14.1%, long-term earnings growth rate of 20.3%, and an annual dividend yield of 0.65% [13] - **Leidos Holdings (LDOS)**: Projected fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 3.4%, long-term earnings growth rate of 11.6%, and an annual dividend yield of 0.84% [14]

Core Insights - NVIDIA has experienced significant stock volatility, with drops exceeding 30% on multiple occasions, leading to substantial market value loss [1][6] - The company's valuation has surged due to strong AI demand and data center performance, but this growth also exposes it to risks from competition and market corrections [2][10] Company Performance - NVIDIA's market capitalization is over $3.3 trillion, making it the world's most valuable publicly traded company [4] - The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a 65.2% growth in the last twelve months and a 91.6% average over the last three years [11] - NVIDIA maintains a strong cash generation profile, with a free cash flow margin of nearly 41.3% and an operating margin of 58.8% [11] Competitive Landscape - The rise of custom AI chips from competitors like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft poses a threat to NVIDIA's market share, with Amazon claiming 50% cost savings [10] - AMD and Intel are increasing competition in AI accelerators, which may impact NVIDIA's dominance, although NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem remains a significant advantage [10] Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks - U.S. export restrictions, particularly the April 2025 H20 ban, could cost NVIDIA $5.5 billion, while China's push for domestic chip production adds further challenges [10] - Limited export approvals for the H200 could potentially yield $25-30 billion in revenue, but regulatory hurdles in China persist [10]

Core Viewpoint - The debate on whether the rally in AI stocks has turned into a bubble is ongoing, with differing opinions from Wall Street investment banks regarding the sustainability of the current market enthusiasm [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Sentiment - Alpine Macro suggests that the market does not yet exhibit classic signs of speculative excess, with investor skepticism remaining high and "AI bubble" discussions indicating caution rather than complacency [2]. - Sentiment surveys reflect a balanced outlook, contrasting sharply with the euphoria seen in the late 1990s, where bullish sentiment was dominant [3]. - Current stock valuations, while elevated, are not disconnected from reality, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 estimated to be approximately 25% undervalued according to the Fed model [3]. Group 2: Comparison to Historical Context - The cap-weighted index appears fairly valued, and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks trade at a premium based on growth expectations rather than speculative behavior [4]. - In contrast to the dot-com era, where growth stocks traded at over double their bond-implied fair value, current leading stocks like Nvidia Corp. trade at about 30 times forward earnings, supported by rapidly growing profits [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - There is little evidence of widespread overinvestment in AI, with major tech firms primarily funding AI initiatives through internal cash flow rather than debt, and IPO activity remaining subdued [5]. - The investment boom in AI is considered to be in its early stages compared to the internet boom [6]. Group 4: Potential Future Risks - Alpine Macro warns that the conditions for a bubble may be forming, as AI meets the criteria of a major technological shift and broad access to speculation, with the potential for cheap money emerging in 2026 [7]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to ease monetary policy in 2026, which could release approximately $13 trillion currently held in money market funds and demand deposits into risk assets [9]. - Financial markets are anticipating over two rate cuts by the end of 2026, with expectations concentrated in the latter half of the year [10][11]. Group 5: Conclusion - The conclusion from Alpine Macro is that while an AI bubble is not inevitable, the risk is increasing, and the Federal Reserve will play a crucial role in the future trajectory of the AI market [12].

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open Monday after major indexes lost ground to close last week amid concerns around an AI bubble. Here's what investors need to know today. https://t.co/FO3YWLr2yO ...

Company Overview - iRobot has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware, transferring full control to its primary manufacturer, Picea Robotics [2][3] - The restructuring aims to strengthen iRobot's financial position and ensure continuity for customers [4] Financial Performance - iRobot generated approximately $682 million in revenue in 2024, but its profitability has been declining [3] - The company faced increased costs due to a 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam, adding about $23 million in expenses this year [3] Market Competition - iRobot is under pressure from cheaper competitors, particularly from Chinese companies like Ecovacs Robotics [3] Future Outlook - iRobot expects to complete its prepackaged Chapter 11 process by February 2026 [3] - The combination of iRobot's design and R&D capabilities with Picea's manufacturing expertise is seen as a strategic move for the next phase of smart-home robotics [4] Alphabet's Investment - Alphabet is poised for a valuation increase related to its investment in SpaceX, which has recently completed a tender offer valuing the company at approximately $800 billion [4][5] - Alphabet has been a SpaceX investor for about a decade, initially investing $1 billion in 2015 for a 10% stake [6] Box Office Performance - Disney's "Zootopia 2" has maintained the top position at the box office, grossing $26.3 million over a recent weekend, bringing its domestic total to $259 million and global total to about $1.14 billion [8] - Universal's "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" and "Wicked: For Good" also performed well, with domestic earnings of $95.5 million and $312.1 million respectively [8][9]