Javier, you're picking up on geopolitics. We've got the conflict uh in Ukraine continuing uh Russia under sanction as a result of that. Then off the coast of South America, you've got a blockade in in place.How do these stand to affect the price of oil here in in the months to come. >> Well, I mean, that is the big headline race that oil traders talk about. You could have your best modeling of the global economy, your best modeling of supply and demand, but you cannot really anticipate what uh President Tru ...

A wave of visits to Taiwan by Japanese lawmakers is underway, underscoring the close ties between Tokyo and Taipei and drawing a sharp response from Beijing https://t.co/K0kQCXGBrt ...

By the end of 2026, the shape of 21st-century geopolitics will be much clearer. We explain how in The World Ahead https://t.co/9ajbQJwLYD https://t.co/zg2DTJn91M ...

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Geopolitical developments have caused fluctuations in oil prices, but these movements have been short-lived and less significant due to a well-supplied market [1] - The U.S. blockade and seizure of oil tankers from Venezuela have not led to substantial price increases, with Brent crude prices struggling to maintain the $60 per barrel mark [2][4] Market Conditions and Supply Dynamics - The oil market is currently experiencing a bearish trend, with expectations of near-record oversupply early next year, which may empower the Trump Administration to pursue more aggressive sanctions against Venezuela [3][7] - Despite temporary price increases due to intensified U.S. actions against Venezuelan tankers, the overall market glut continues to limit significant gains [5][6] Floating Storage and Supply Risks - A significant volume of oil, estimated at 1.3-1.4 billion barrels, is currently in floating storage, including Russian crude that buyers are hesitant to accept due to U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil producers [8] - Intensified sanctions on Russia's energy sector could pose a larger supply risk if peace talks with Ukraine fail, while a potential peace deal could lead to eased sanctions and increased global supply [6][7]

Geopolitical Analysis - The United States is actively pursuing a Venezuelan oil tanker, marking the third vessel targeted recently [1] - Increased pressure on Venezuela is anticipated as a result of the U S pursuit [1] Key Actors - Hagar Chemali, former Director for Syria and Lebanon at the White House National Security Council during the Obama Administration, provides insights [1] - Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey, MS NOW Military Analyst, offers analysis on the situation [1]

Let's talk about this and more and get critical analysis with retired Colonel Jack Jacobs. Uh Colonel Jacobs, it's it's great to have you on, although I feel like when I have you on or when we talk to you, it's because there's something that's very tense in the world. Do you think it is possible that the United States will go to some form of a physical war with Venezuela.>> It's unlikely. It's difficult to envision how we would do that. I mean, we've tried that in other countries down through the ages and I ...

Core Insights - The webinar featured key executives from major companies in the dry bulk shipping sector, discussing market dynamics and strategic considerations [1] Group 1: Company Strategies - Wah Kwong Maritime Services employs a strategy that balances spot and time charters based on market views and risk management [2] - EuroDry focuses on mid-sized dry bulk segments, avoiding smaller Handysize and larger Capesize vessels, and emphasizes a balanced fleet post-merger with Eagle Bulk Shipping [3] - Pangaea Logistics Solutions prioritizes customer needs, utilizing voyage charter contracts and long-term COAs while mixing spot market activity with contracted cargoes [4] Group 2: Financial Management - EuroDry advocates for a medium leverage strategy targeting approximately 50% loan-to-value to enhance equity returns while remaining resilient during downturns [5] - Pangaea's debt to fair market value is around 40-45%, indicating a comfortable leverage level, while Star Bulk focuses on using cash flow for stock buybacks rather than increasing leverage [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - The dry bulk shipping market experienced volatility, with a weak first half of the year followed by a stronger second half, leading to cautious optimism among executives [7] - Forecasts suggest a modest market correction, with geopolitical factors becoming increasingly significant in influencing freight rates, which are expected to remain stable with a potential variance of 20%-25% [8] - Optimism remains regarding strong volumes for coal, grain, and minor bulks, despite concerns over coal demand due to warm weather [9][10] Group 4: Fleet and Order Book - The newbuild order book is considered manageable, with Kamsarmax at approximately 14% and Ultramax at 11.5%, well within historical norms [11] - Shifts in Chinese demand, particularly in steel exports and power demand from AI data centers, are creating beneficial long-haul shipping demand for raw materials and finished steel [12]

Geopolitical Stance - Russia states it will not attack the EU or NATO [1] - Russia is prepared to formalize this commitment in a legal document [1]

China criticizes the US for seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela https://t.co/h6BCqI8rlD ...

Core Insights - Defence stocks on the ASX have gained significant attention due to rising geopolitical tensions and advancements in military technology, leading to substantial capital inflow and sharp increases in share prices over the past year [2][15]. Company Summaries Droneshield Limited (ASX: DRO) - Droneshield's share price has surged by 348% in the past year, driven by a major European military contract worth $49.6 million and a strong pipeline of international orders [3][5]. - The company specializes in technology for detecting and neutralizing hostile drones, which are increasingly relevant in modern conflicts [4]. - Despite its growth, Droneshield's earnings are volatile, with potential sharp pullbacks following periods of high expectations [6][7]. Electro Optic Systems Limited (ASX: EOS) - Electro Optic Systems has experienced a remarkable share price increase of over 668%, attributed to large international contracts, including an $80 million deal for high-energy laser weapons in South Korea [3][8]. - The company has improved its operational execution, leading to better margins and clearer earnings visibility after previous challenges with cost overruns and delays [9]. - However, the company faces high expectations and is sensitive to long procurement cycles and geopolitical factors [10]. Austal Limited (ASX: ASB) - Austal's share price has risen by nearly 118%, supported by long-term contracts, including billion-dollar deals related to US naval expansion [12][13]. - The company focuses on designing and building naval vessels, providing more stable revenue visibility compared to its peers [12]. - Austal's business model offers exposure to defence spending through industrial execution, which entails steady cash flows but also risks related to cost control and project management [14]. Industry Overview - The ASX defence sector reflects a structural shift in defence spending and technology evolution, with Australian capabilities becoming increasingly relevant to allied nations [15]. - Investors are advised to understand the business models and contract flows of defence companies, as volatility can create opportunities for those familiar with the sector [15][16].