Core Insights - Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) is a leading player in customer relationship management technology with a market cap of $242.2 billion, providing cloud-based solutions for businesses to enhance customer engagement across various functions [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, CRM shares have decreased by 15.1%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 17.5% during the same period [2] - Year-to-date, CRM shares have fallen by 24.4%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 15.6% [2] - Compared to the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), which returned 30.1% over the past 52 weeks, CRM has also lagged [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2026, Salesforce reported adjusted EPS of $2.91 and revenues of $10.2 billion, exceeding expectations; however, shares fell by 4.9% the following day due to a weak Q3 revenue forecast of $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion, which was below estimates [4] - Analysts project an 8.8% year-over-year growth in EPS for the fiscal year ending January 2026, reaching $8.58 [5] - Salesforce has a strong earnings surprise history, beating consensus estimates in the last four quarters [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 50 analysts covering CRM, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of 35 "Strong Buys," 2 "Moderate Buys," 12 "Holds," and 1 "Strong Sell" [5] - This rating configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, which had 36 "Strong Buy" ratings [6] Price Targets - Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reaffirmed a "Buy" rating on Salesforce with a price target of $350 [7] - The mean price target of $330.65 indicates a 30.9% premium to CRM's current price levels, while the highest price target of $430 suggests a potential upside of 70.2% [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a 6% growth in sales, a 100 basis point expansion in segment margins, and a 17% increase in adjusted EPS, achieving a free cash flow conversion of 102% [1][22][23] - The backlog reached a record $15 billion, reflecting sustained demand for the company's solutions [1][24][27] - The proprietary business system is evolving as a growth engine, combining 80/20 and Lean principles with digital and AI approaches to enhance customer focus and operational efficiency [2][5][6] Financial Performance - Fiscal 2025 was marked by strong execution, with organic revenue growth of 4% and adjusted EPS of $1.26, a 14% year-over-year increase [22][23] - The company ended the quarter with $400 million in available cash and a net debt ratio of 2.4 times, within the long-term target range [23] - Adjusted free cash flow improved by approximately $700 million to $2.5 billion for the year [23] Segment Performance - Orders grew 6% in the quarter, with notable growth in The Americas (9%) and EMEA (3%), while APAC saw a slight decline of 1% [24][25] - The Americas experienced a 3% organic sales increase, while EMEA delivered 9% organic growth [25][27] - The backlog grew 13%, with system backlog increasing by 14% and service backlog by 9% [27] Strategic Initiatives - The company is updating its long-term growth algorithm to reflect improved mid-single-digit top-line growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth [2][28] - The focus remains on investing in organic growth, returning capital to shareholders, and pursuing selective acquisitions [29] - The proprietary business system aims to identify and remove barriers to growth, with over 700 colleagues engaged in priority areas [6][9] Market Position and Innovations - The company is strengthening its leadership in advanced thermal management, particularly for data centers, with new product launches like the coolant distribution unit [13][14][15] - The transition to liquid cooling technologies is expected to enhance the company's competitive advantage in the data center vertical [14][15][56] - A significant project in Zurich will provide green heat to the city, showcasing the company's commitment to sustainable solutions [16][17][18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates organic sales growth of approximately 3% for the first quarter and mid-single-digit growth for the full year [30][31] - Adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately $4.55 per share, reflecting over 20% growth [30] - The guidance for fiscal 2026 includes a target of 50% operating leverage and approximately 100% free cash flow conversion [30][31]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2026 was a record $1.58 billion, up 3% sequentially and 17% year-over-year, driven by growth in AI data center and communications demand [24][25] - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 38.7%, a 70 basis point increase from the prior quarter and a 200 basis point increase year-over-year [25] - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.16, compared to $1.00 in the prior quarter and $0.67 in the year-ago quarter, reflecting a 16% sequential growth and 73% year-over-year growth [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center and communications segment revenue grew by 7% sequentially and 26% year-over-year, with data center revenue increasing by 4% sequentially and 23% year-over-year [6][17] - Communications market revenue grew 11% sequentially and 55% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for data center interconnect products [17] - Industrial segment revenue grew 2% quarter-over-quarter and 4% year-over-year on a pro forma basis, with expectations for stability in the current quarter [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing unprecedented demand for optical networking products, particularly in AI data centers, with record bookings indicating strong future growth [5][8] - Strong demand for both 800 gig and 1.6T transceivers is noted, with expectations for significant growth in calendar 2026 [9][14] - The optical circuit switch (OCS) platform is expected to add over $2 billion of addressable market opportunity, with growing customer engagement [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on streamlining its portfolio and concentrating investments in areas with the greatest long-term growth potential, having divested its aerospace and defense business [20][21] - Continued expansion of production capacity for transceiver modules and key optical components is a priority to meet strong demand [10][12] - The company aims for a gross margin target of greater than 42%, with ongoing cost reduction and pricing optimization initiatives [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong sequential revenue growth throughout the fiscal year, driven by robust demand in the data center and communications segments [5][24] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for its products, with significant improvements in supply chain capacity expected [10][36] - Management remains cautious about near-term demand in the industrial segment due to macroeconomic factors but expects stability [19] Other Important Information - The company has sold or exited 23 sites over the past five quarters as part of its portfolio optimization initiative [23] - The proceeds from divestitures are being used to pay down debt, significantly reducing the debt leverage ratio to 1.7 times [27][28] - The company is ramping production of 6-inch indium phosphide, which is expected to enhance gross margins due to lower production costs [11][52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the demand side and its breadth? - Management indicated very strong demand across both data center and communications, with record bookings extending well into the future, providing good visibility for planning [31][32] Question: What milestones should investors watch regarding indium phosphide capacity? - Key milestones include the ramping of production at two sites, with initial yields from the 6-inch indium phosphide production exceeding expectations [34][35] Question: How does the company view its position in the OCS market? - The company feels confident about its technology differentiation and expects meaningful revenue contributions from OCS in the coming years, with a steady ramp anticipated [38][39] Question: What is the outlook for the 1.6T transceivers? - The company expects a balanced ramp across multiple customers for 1.6T transceivers, with strong engagement and accelerated timelines from several customers [57][58]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 was approximately $62 million, with adjusted gross profit of $36 million and adjusted EBITDA of $9.9 million, each down 4% year over year [5][17] - Marketing revenue came in at $39 million, down 43% year over year and down 28% sequentially [12][16] - Product revenue was $22.5 million, up 8% year over year but down 6% sequentially [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The product segment showed strong year-over-year growth, with revenue increasing 8% from Q3 2024 and adjusted gross profit up 6% year over year [5][7] - Marketing segment profit was $16.6 million, down 14% year over year and down 15% sequentially, driven by lower traffic acquisition costs [12][19] - Sessions increased 23% year over year and 12% sequentially, reflecting strong execution in the product segment [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The transition away from Google's AdSense for Domains (AFD) product had a significant negative impact on marketing revenue, which previously contributed approximately 39% of marketing platform revenue [18][19] - The company is transitioning to Google's Related Search on Content (RSoC) product, which is expected to provide a more stable revenue stream moving forward [6][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on integrating AI across its operations and expanding its product offerings, particularly in the areas of search, shopping, and geolocation [6][11] - There is a strategic emphasis on acquiring direct users to reduce dependency on third-party distribution platforms [11] - The company plans to increase investment in its product segment, which is viewed as having more predictable growth compared to the marketing business [10][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the volatility in the marketing segment but expressed confidence in returning to growth as the transition to RSoC completes [13][21] - The leadership team believes the majority of the volatility tied to Google Marketplace dynamics is behind them and anticipates providing guidance in the near future [21] - The company remains committed to enforcing high standards of traffic quality and is pursuing claims against partners for invalid traffic [14] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $54.6 million of unrestricted cash and an outstanding balance of $265 million of term-loan debt [20][21] - The company is not providing Q4 2025 guidance at this time but expects to stabilize and rebound in the marketing segment [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Efforts with Microsoft and Bing's market share gains - The company has been working closely with Bing and has seen improved performance, leading to a shift in efforts towards Bing as monetization increases [23][24] Question: Collaboration with OpenAI and Anthropic - The company highlighted its new product Vanish, which focuses on private AI, and mentioned ongoing work with various AI models to enhance its platform [25][26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 2025 was a record quarter for the company, with adjusted EBITDA growing 29% year over year and free cash flow generation exceeding $1 billion for the first time in Lyft's history [3][11][12] - Active riders increased by 18% year over year, and gross bookings rose by 16% year over year, both reaching all-time highs [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record levels of active riders and driver hours, contributing to overall growth [12][13] - The partnership with United Airlines is expected to enhance customer value and drive additional growth [3][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 70% of rides growth in Q3 came from underpenetrated markets in North America, which represent a significant opportunity for future growth [13][42] - The company anticipates mid to high teens growth in rides and 17-20% growth in gross bookings for Q4 2025 [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Lyft is focusing on expanding its autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships and enhancing its position across the AV value chain [4][12] - The company aims to leverage its recent acquisitions, including FreeNow and TBR, to enhance its global presence and service offerings [46][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about multiple growth catalysts converging in 2026, including the impact of the United partnership and ongoing improvements in operational efficiency [9][12] - The California insurance reform (SB371) is expected to reduce costs for riders and stimulate demand, benefiting both drivers and the company [15][16] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on enhancing its business-to-business opportunities, including partnerships with universities and healthcare providers [90] - Lyft's high-value modes grew by 50% year over year in Q3, indicating strong demand for premium services [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the multiple converging catalysts in 2026? - Management highlighted that the marketplace is stronger than ever, with record active riders and driver hours, and emphasized the importance of the United partnership and underpenetrated markets [9][12] Question: How does Lyft plan to balance growth and margin trajectory? - Management stated that customer obsession drives profitable growth and that innovation is key to scaling the business without sacrificing margins [21][25] Question: What is the opportunity in low scale markets? - Management noted that about two-thirds of the $161 billion personal vehicle trips market in North America is in underpenetrated markets, which are expected to drive significant growth [42][43] Question: How does the Waymo partnership impact AV economics? - Management explained that the partnership is designed to maximize vehicle availability and utilization, which should improve unit economics over time [31][32][80] Question: What is the expected impact of insurance renewals? - Management indicated a mid-single-digit increase in insurance costs per ride but emphasized ongoing efforts to bend the insurance cost curve [40][41] Question: How will Lyft leverage its acquisitions for global expansion? - Management discussed the potential to enhance service quality and expand market reach through the integration of FreeNow and TBR's capabilities [46][50]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a rally of over 3% after dipping below $100,000 for the first time since June, indicating potential recovery in the crypto market [1] - The recent decline in Bitcoin was attributed to various market pressures, including government shutdowns and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which affected market liquidity and risk appetite [3][4] - The recent deleveraging event in Bitcoin was noted as the largest in history, with ongoing ripple effects still being felt in the market [7][8] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's break below its 200-day moving average is a significant technical indicator that traders are closely monitoring [2] - Funding stress observed in the secured overnight financing rate may signal early signs of market stress, although it has not yet impacted credit markets or bank equities [5][6] - The correlation between crypto and stock markets, particularly the NASDAQ 100, has been strong, with market makers trading both asset classes [10] Historical Context - Historical data suggests that after six consecutive months of stock market gains, there is an average gain of 3% in the following month, indicating potential for continued upward movement [11] - The current market environment, characterized by stretched valuations, particularly in AI-related stocks, may lead to a broader market expansion as investors seek mean-reverting opportunities [12][13] Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors are increasingly focusing on long-term positioning, with discussions extending beyond 2026, reflecting a strategic approach to current market conditions [13] - Despite concerns over valuations, key AI stocks are still viewed as reasonably valued due to their strong growth rates, suggesting continued interest in this sector [13]

Financial Performance & Guidance - Q4'25 ARR as reported reached $2478 million, a 10% YoY increase[22] - FY'25 Free Cash Flow was $857 million, a 16% YoY increase[23] - FY'26 Free Cash Flow guidance is approximately $1000 million[19,29] - FY'26 constant currency ARR growth guidance, excluding Kepware and ThingWorx, is 75% to 95%[16,29] - Q1'26 Free Cash Flow guidance is $265 million to $270 million[29] Kepware and ThingWorx Divestiture - The divestiture involves Kepware industrial connectivity and ThingWorx IoT businesses[9] - Estimated net transaction proceeds from the divestiture are approximately $365 million[12,14] - Kepware and ThingWorx contribute approximately $160 million of ARR and $200 million of revenue[15] - Kepware and ThingWorx contribute an estimated $70 million of free cash flow[17] Capital Allocation - The company intends to repurchase between $150 million and $250 million of its common stock per quarter in FY'26[40,80]

ETF Market Overview - The ETF marketplace has seen significant growth, with net inflows reaching $1.11 trillion as of the end of October 2025, which is approximately $100 billion short of the record set in 2024 [1][2] - 2025 is noted as the best year for the ETF industry across various asset classes, including equity, fixed income, gold, and cryptocurrencies, indicating a strong investor interest [2] Secular and New Trends - Secular trends show that low-cost beta strategies have attracted nearly $500 billion in new flows, primarily through S&P 500 exposure [4] - New trends are emerging around income generation, digital assets, cryptocurrencies, and private assets, which are expected to complement traditional low-cost market exposure [5][9] Private Assets and Partnerships - There is a growing emphasis on private assets, with partnerships established with firms like Blackstone, Apollo, and Bridgewater to enhance access to private market segments [8] - The All Weather ETF has seen significant success, crossing $600 million in flows and projected to reach $1 billion within its first year [9] Fee Sensitivity and Product Diversity - Investors are increasingly willing to pay higher fees for access to unique investment strategies, such as Bitcoin-oriented ETFs and private credit products, which offer exposure to harder-to-access markets [14][15] - The market is characterized by a mix of low-cost products and more complex offerings, including actively managed ETFs that charge higher premiums [16] Market Momentum and Sector Performance - The current market momentum is heavily influenced by technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services sectors, with analysts predicting continued strength in indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ [20][24] - There is speculation about a potential catch-up trade as investors may begin to diversify away from high-performing sectors, although this is not expected to happen until early next year [25][23] Defensive Sector Interest - The healthcare sector, represented by the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV), has started to regain favor after being out of favor for much of the year, indicating a potential shift towards more defensive investments [27]

Core Insights - Freshworks Inc. reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, exceeding previous estimates in growth and profitability metrics, driven by the integration of AI into their software solutions [2][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $215.1 million, a 15% increase from $186.6 million in Q3 2024, with the same growth rate when adjusted for constant currency [6]. - GAAP loss from operations was $(7.5) million, improving from $(38.9) million in Q3 2024, resulting in an operating margin of (3.5)% compared to (20.8)% [6]. - Non-GAAP income from operations was $45.2 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 21.0%, up from $24.0 million and 12.8% in Q3 2024 [6]. - GAAP net loss per share was $(0.02) based on 286.2 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $(0.10) based on 302.1 million shares in Q3 2024 [6]. - Non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.16, compared to $0.11 in Q3 2024 [6]. - Net cash provided by operating activities was $63.5 million, representing a margin of 29.5%, up from $42.3 million and 22.7% in Q3 2024 [6]. - Adjusted free cash flow was $57.2 million, with a margin of 26.6%, compared to $40.1 million and 21.5% in Q3 2024 [6]. Customer Metrics - The number of customers contributing more than $5,000 in ARR reached 24,377, a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - The net dollar retention rate was 105%, slightly down from 107% in Q3 2024 [7]. Business Highlights - Freshworks onboarded several new customers, including AllSaints/John Varvatos and Société Générale, expanding its market presence [7]. - The company appointed Enrique Ortegon as Senior Vice President and General Manager of Americas Field Sales [14]. Financial Outlook - For Q4 2025, Freshworks expects revenue between $217.0 million and $220.0 million, with year-over-year growth of 12% to 13% [9]. - The full-year revenue forecast is between $833.1 million and $836.1 million, reflecting a 16% growth [9].

Market Sentiment - A recent poll indicated that 48.8% of respondents believe the stock market is in a bubble, while 51.2% disagree, suggesting a divided sentiment among investors [2][10] - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, there is a prevailing optimism as many investors continue to engage in the market, indicating a willingness to invest even among those who perceive risks [10][11] Bull Market Analysis - The current bull market is in its fourth year, with historical data showing that five bull markets in the last 50 years have lasted this long, typically reaching at least five years, with an average duration of eight years [3][4] - The market is described as a "cruise ship," suggesting that once it gains momentum, it is difficult to slow down or reverse [4] Performance Indicators - Historical data shows that when the market is up at least 10% going into November, it has ended higher in the last 14 occurrences, and when up 15%, it has ended higher 20 out of 21 times [6][7] - The market is currently up 15% as of November 1st, which aligns with these positive historical trends [6] Global Market Context - The U.S. market has performed well, but many global markets have outperformed it, indicating a broader global bull market and opportunities for investment outside the U.S. [12][13] - The company has increased its international exposure in its portfolio, now holding about 19% in developed international equities, compared to previous years [13][14]