美国就业下滑。宏观方面，国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做 强国内大循环的重要载体。要因地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划。科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化。要深入实施 城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 要着力破解城乡二元结构。海外方面，ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来 最大降幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡下跌，沪指跌0.51%收于3878点，创业板指跌1.12%。行业方面，板块指 数跌多涨少，交通运输、有色金属、煤炭行业领涨，传媒、计算机、房地产、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。当日沪深 两市成交额为1.67万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.86%报47882.9点。 期指基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货的贴水继续修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同 步增加。 策略 海外方面，美国小非农就业数据表现弱于预期，美联储降息预期进一步升温，美股三大指数均小幅收涨。国内方 面，指数开启二次探底，关注即将召开的两大 ...

银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 4 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：继续整理 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪偏弱，超长承压 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力明显 | 美豆持续回落 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价调整 | 国内糖价下跌 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 生猪：供应仍有压力 | 价格小幅震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面震荡回落 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 9 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部震荡运行 13 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本推动短期反弹，需求压制反弹高度 15 | | 金银：黄金持稳 | 白银博弈加剧 16 | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：铂择机逢低布多 | 钯震荡运行 17 | | ...

2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.8%，报 59.11 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.54%， 报 62.79 美元/桶。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/04 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.33%报 4234.8 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.39% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A-share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross-year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile, with funds favoring defensive allocations. Once the meeting contents are clear and the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, market risk appetite is expected to rise again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before, with declines ranging from -0.25% to -0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also decreased, with declines ranging from -0.35% to -0.41%. The trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and the open interest of most contracts increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts dropped, with declines from -0.35% to -0.42%. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines ranging from -0.53% to -0.58%. The trading volume and open interest varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts had different values compared to the previous values, with some spreads widening and some remaining the same [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before, with declines of -0.51%, -0.52%, -0.62%, and -0.89% respectively. The trading volume and total trading amount also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry index showed different trends, with the raw materials industry rising by 0.85% and other industries such as energy, industry, and optional consumption showing declines [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased compared to the day before, indicating changes in the relationship between futures and spot prices [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from -0.51% to -1.12% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by -1.28%, the DAX Index decreased by -0.07%, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.30%, and the Nikkei 225 Index remained unchanged [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. Relevant measures should be taken in urbanization planning, population citizenization, urban renewal, and breaking the urban - rural dual structure [2] - The US President signed a law regarding US - Taiwan relations, and China urged the US to stop official exchanges with Taiwan and not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [2] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Planning (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai in playing a leading role and promote the construction of a world - class city cluster [2] - From January to November this year, consumer goods trade - in drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration issued an action plan for the integrated development of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, including 15 specific measures [2] - As the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of national subsidy funds is further consumed, more than 20 cities across the country have suspended or adjusted automobile trade - in subsidy activities [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market were 1.354 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new - energy vehicle market was 59.8% [2] - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed down, while logistics demand in the industrial manufacturing and consumer sectors showed positive and stable trends respectively [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - The report indicates that on December 3, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined, with IF down 0.3%, IH down 0.35%, IC down 0.41%, and IM down 0.58%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded on this trading day, showing an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of all four major index futures also increased. The index futures have certain support at the lower level [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Index Futures Price and Trading Volume - The closing prices of the four major spot indexes all declined, with the CSI 300 down 0.51%, the SSE 50 down 0.52%, the CSI 500 down 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.89%. Among the index futures contracts, the December 2025 contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, with decreases of 0.3%, 0.35%, 0.41%, and 0.58% respectively [1]. - The total trading volume of IF increased by 16,059 lots, IH by 3,694 lots, IC by 18,013 lots, and IM by 37,370 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 10,409 lots, IH by 3,910 lots, IC by 10,653 lots, and IM by 23,105 lots [2]. Index Futures Basis - The basis of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM is different, and the basis generally shows a negative value, indicating that the futures price is lower than the spot price [1]. Top 20 Member Positions - In the top 20 member positions of index futures, the long - and short - position changes of different contracts vary. For example, in the IF2512 contract, the long - position increase is 3,679, and the short - position increase is 3,373 [5]. Group 3: Market Driving Factors Domestic Economic Data - From January to November this year, the replacement of consumer goods with old ones drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade import and export volume was 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan [6]. Policy and International Relations - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle. The US President Trump signed a law on the US - Taiwan relationship, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, emphasizing the one - China principle [7]. International Economic Data - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [6]. Group 4: Other Information Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.51% at 3,878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. The trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, up from 1.61 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.26%报 113.610 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.040 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.850 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.420 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 3 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 793 亿 元 ...

生产行业：1）据悉，欧盟目前正考虑为包括汽车在内的特定商品，设定高达70%的"欧洲制造"目标，此举旨在优 先采购本土商品，以减少欧盟在清洁技术及部分重工业领域对他国的依赖。根据欧盟拟议的新规，具有可能构成 安全风险的太阳能逆变器产业，其主要部件或将必须在欧洲制造。一位欧盟官员表示，70%的采购比例最终可能下 调，且关于本土化内容规则的谈判进展料将艰难。 宏观日报 | 2025-12-04 地产下游销售持续回暖 中观事件总览 服务行业：1）美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，预估为增加5000人，前值为增加 4.2万人。美国ADP就业报告公布后，现货黄金小幅上涨，美元指数延续跌势，美国两年期国债收益率进一步下跌。 2）12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第十七次 专题学习。李强在听取讲解和交流发言后指出，展望"十五五"时期，新型城镇化发展空间仍然很大。要从中国式 现代化全局的高度把握新型城镇化的使命任务，始终把这项工作摆在战略位置抓实抓好，加快补齐短板弱项，努 力实现人的全面发展、城市品质提升和产业聚集升级的互动并进。 数 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a weak consolidation with a continued pullback, as the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878 points, down 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12955.25 points, down 0.78% [1][5][10] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 6 saw an increase, with transportation, non-ferrous metals, and coal leading the gains, while media, computer, and real estate sectors faced significant declines [1][5][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 168.36 billion yuan, slightly up from the previous day [1][5][10] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.86%, the S&P 500 up by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.17% [2][5] - Notable performers included UnitedHealth Group, which rose over 4%, and Goldman Sachs, which increased by more than 2% [2][5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Canadian Solar dropping over 9% and NIO falling nearly 5% [2][5] Key News Highlights - Zhejiang Province is supporting the establishment of a low-altitude industry "pilot zone" and a low-altitude economy "first flight zone" [12][13] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, the total service trade import and export volume increased by 7.5% year-on-year, reaching 65,844.3 billion yuan [14] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises [16] - The Zhuque-3 reusable launch vehicle successfully completed its mission, although a recovery test for one of its stages failed [18] - The US reported a significant drop in private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [19]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-04 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

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