Market Trends & Dynamics - Alphabet's shares increased by 2% due to Meta's purchase of TPUs from Google, leading to a market capitalization watch of $4 trillion [1] - Nvidia's shares decreased by 6% following a report of Meta buying TPUs from Alphabet, impacting the semiconductor sector with ARM down nearly 5% and AMD down by 8% [1] - Consumer confidence in the US for November came in lower than estimated at 88.7%, against an estimate of 93.3% [1] - Mastercard's spending pulse report anticipates a 3.6% increase in holiday shopping in 2025, with deals and value being crucial for consumers [2] - Deloitte's annual holiday travel survey indicates that 54% of Americans plan to travel, but are cutting back on overall vacation spending by 18% on average [32][33] Retail Sector Performance - Kohl's shares rose by 34% after announcing a permanent CEO and releasing earnings, while Abercrombie shares increased by 22% [1] - Dick's Sporting Goods' comparable sales were up 5.7%, but the stock is under pressure due to concerns about charges from the Foot Locker acquisition [1] - Best Buy reported better same-store sales, up by 2.7%, driven by product cycles in computing and gaming [2] - The toy industry is impacted by tariffs, with consumers expected to see price increases, such as the Tonka mighty dump truck increasing from $25 pre-COVID to $35-$40 online [7][8] Consumer Behavior & Spending - Consumers are prioritizing value and seeking deals, with 70% looking to get a bigger bang for their buck in both goods and experiences [38] - There's a divergence in retail stocks, with some companies like Walmart, Dicks, Best Buy, and Kohl's beating sales and earnings estimates, while others like Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's missed [2] - Consumer spending plans for services and amusement parks are declining, indicating caution in discretionary spending [4] - Consumers are cutting back on holiday toy budgets, with 143% expecting to spend much less and more than 26% expecting to spend somewhat less [39][7] Travel Industry Insights - Delta Airlines is celebrating 100 years in business, highlighting the challenges and disruptions caused by government shutdowns and staffing shortages [5] - The TSA expects to screen nearly 18 million people between today and next Tuesday for the holiday travel season [5] - 57% of travelers are planning to drive, up 10% from last year, as a way to save money [35]

Core Insights - Wage volatility and paycheck-to-paycheck pressures persist, indicating continued consumer flexibility but limited financial headroom [1][10] - Retail sales in September showed a modest increase, with total sales at $733.3 billion, up 0.2% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, but missed consensus estimates [4][5] - Discretionary spending categories are experiencing weakness, with notable declines in motor vehicles and parts (-0.3%), electronics and appliances (-0.5%), and clothing and accessories (-0.7%) [5][6] Retail Performance - Retail sales data indicates a pullback in discretionary categories related to home and leisure, with sporting goods and hobby stores down 2.5% in September [6] - Essential and value-oriented retail channels are seeing growth, with health and personal care stores up 1.1% and miscellaneous store retailers up 2.9% [7] - Nonstore retailer sales increased 6% year-over-year, but showed a decline of 0.7% month-over-month in September, suggesting a potential wait for promotions [8] Consumer Behavior - The Wage to Wallet Index indicates a 0.81% drop in hourly wages for labor economy workers in October, equating to a loss of approximately $14 billion in annualized spending power [10] - Many consumers are trapped in narrow liquidity bands, relying on short-term credit and making trade-offs among bills, while adapting spending towards value channels [11] - Retailers and payment firms should not assume continued digital commerce growth, as consumer spending remains cautious despite resilience [12] Payment Trends - The importance of value, convenience, and flexibility in payment product design is increasing, with consumers gravitating towards buy now, pay later (BNPL) options and flexible financing [13] - Stakeholders should anticipate uneven cash flows and higher credit use, emphasizing the need for real-time insights into spending patterns [13]

We got weekly jobless numbers from ADP and Steve Leeman's got those numbers and a special guest. Good morning, Steve. >> Good morning, Andrew.ADP reporting it is preliminary weekly change in payrolls for the week ending November 8th. The four-week average of weekly jobless ch job changes declining by 13,500 per week. Worse than the prior week, which was actually revised down from -2500 to -7,500.This is a new data series and subject to revision. We're figuring how to work with this. A lot of volatility.The ...

Retail Sales Trend - US retail sales saw a modest increase in September [1] - Suggesting some consumers paused spending after several months of strong activity [1]

All right. How much weight are you going to put on this retail sales report. We had a guest on earlier.He says, "Yeah, it's interesting because I want data, but it's kind of backwards looking and it's kind of not really clear how much of a read it gives on today's consumer." >> Yeah, that's correct. And I think you're going to get some more data in the later in the week. You know, Adobe usually comes out with their, you know, Black Friday weekend sales update and some of their Cyber Monday, you know, data p ...

Geopolitical Developments - Overnight, Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv resulted in at least two fatalities, raising immediate geopolitical concerns [2][7] Economic Data - Japan's retail sector showed significant strength in October, with nationwide department store sales climbing 4.3% year-over-year, a substantial improvement from the prior month's 1.4% growth [3][7] - Tokyo department store sales increased by 3.7% year-over-year, up from 2.5% previously, indicating a healthy rebound in consumer spending [3][7] Corporate News - Berenberg has revised its price target for Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) down to $275 from $320, signaling a more cautious outlook on the stock [4][7]

Despite tariffs, stick to inflation, and the lack of key data, the outlook for spending remains bullish, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute. Here with us now at Post9 is chief economist of the Mastercard Economics Institute, Michelle Meyer. It's good to have you back.Welcome. >> Thank you. >> So, what do you guys expect. >> Well, exactly what you said.I mean, the consumer is still very much engaged despite all of these different headlines. They're trying to navigate relative price differentials ...

Retail Industry Outlook - Retailers are preparing for an uncertain holiday season [1] - Consumers are pulling back on spending [1]

Market Overview - The markets are expected to experience continued volatility as investors assess the Federal Reserve's potential actions amidst mixed economic indicators [2][3] - Current economic conditions show a slight increase in unemployment, solid economic growth, and worsening inflation [2] Consumer Confidence and Spending - There is an observed uptick in demand for consumer discretionary items such as RVs and boats, indicating strong consumer confidence [6][7] - Improved consumer confidence is expected to be reflected in upcoming retail sales, although apparel sales remain uncertain [7] - Anticipated stimulus checks and tax refunds in the first quarter are likely to boost consumer spending next year compared to this year [8] Industry Insights - Patrick Industries, a supplier in the motion industry, is expected to benefit from the increased demand in sectors like RVs and power sports [6] - The easing of tariff pressures, albeit slowly, may contribute positively to the industry outlook [8]

US retail sales growth likely moderated a touch in September, capping an otherwise solid quarter of spending by consumers who are nonetheless frustrated by high prices and anxious about their jobs https://t.co/tQZX0v9E05 ...