Market Overview - Markets were mixed, with the Dow up +0.47% and the small-cap Russell 2000 down -0.49% [1] - Bond yields decreased slightly, with the 10-year at +3.96% and the 2-year at +3.46%, influenced by expectations of an interest rate cut [2] Q3 Earnings Summary - Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings of $5.87 per share, missing expectations of $6.89, despite being above last year's $5.40. Revenues were $11.51 billion, slightly below the estimate of $11.52 billion [4] - Texas Instruments (TXN) reported earnings of $1.48 per share, beating the consensus by a penny, with revenues of $4.74 billion, exceeding the anticipated $4.65 billion, but lowered guidance affected stock performance [6] - Mattel (MAT) reported earnings of 89 cents per share, missing the $1.05 consensus, with quarterly sales of $1.74 billion, below the expected $1.81 billion. Adjusted gross margins fell year over year [7] Future Earnings Expectations - Upcoming earnings reports include AT&T (T), GE Vernova (GEV) before the market opens, and Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) after the close [8]

The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the Sep payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the g ...

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index rose by +0.34% to a four-session high, supported by weakness in the yen and easing US-China trade tensions [1] - The yen fell to a one-week low against the dollar due to expectations of expansionary fiscal policy under new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi [1][5] - The euro declined by -0.31% as a result of dollar strength and negative sentiment from a credit rating downgrade of France [3] Economic Indicators - The October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey dropped -9.9 to a four-month low of -22.2, indicating a slowdown in business activity [2] - Markets are anticipating a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, leading to central bank divergence [3][4] - Swaps indicate a 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting [4] Japan's Economic Data - Japan's September machine tool orders were revised upward to +11.0% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in six months [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has not significantly impacted the bond market, particularly the yield curve, which remains flat without further cuts [4][6][8] - Financial markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, but there is uncertainty regarding the Fed's actual intentions based on recent comments from FOMC members [2][3] - The yield differentials between various Treasury maturities have shown limited movement since the Fed's rate cut, indicating a muted market reaction [6][9] Treasury Yield Curve Analysis - The yield differential between 2 to 10-year Treasuries averaged 55 basis points before the Fed's September meeting and peaked at 62 basis points shortly after, but has since remained virtually unchanged [4][6] - For the long end of the curve, the yield differential between 10-year and 30-year Treasuries averaged 60 basis points leading up to the Fed's rate cut, with minimal changes observed post-cut [5][6] - The overall yield curve has not reacted significantly to the Fed's actions, suggesting that further rate cuts may be necessary for substantial movement [7][8] Credit Spreads - Following the Fed's rate cut, credit spreads for investment-grade bonds increased by only 4 basis points, while high-yield bonds saw a rise of 25 basis points, indicating a limited response to the rate changes [9] - The current low default rates in high-yield bonds suggest that spreads are trading close to historical lows, with minimal changes expected unless there is a significant shift in interest rates [9] Investment Strategy - The company maintains a preference for shorter-maturity bonds over those with longer maturities, as yields are expected to have limited room to fall [10][11] - The fair value for the 10-year Treasury is estimated to be in the range of 4.0% to 4.25%, based on historical averages and current market conditions [10]

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY) is up by +0.30%, reaching a four-session high, driven by weakness in the yen and easing US-China trade tensions [1] - The yen has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, influenced by expectations that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy [1][5] - The euro is down by -0.26% due to the strength of the dollar and negative sentiment from S&P Global Ratings cutting France's sovereign debt credit rating [3] Economic Indicators - The October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell by -9.9 to a four-month low of -22.2, indicating a slowdown in business activity [2] - Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] Japanese Economic Developments - Japan's September machine tool orders were revised upward to +11.0% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in six months [6] - The yen is under pressure as Takaichi's policies favor increased deficit spending and expanded financial stimulus, alongside a rise in the Nikkei Stock Index to a new record high [5]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high, increasing by 0.8% to an intraday all-time high, setting it on track for a record close [1] - The S&P 500 saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced a decline of 0.2% [1] Earnings Reports - Major earnings reports are being closely monitored, with Netflix and General Motors being highlighted [2] - General Motors raised its full-year profit outlook, leading to a surge in its stock price [2] - Positive earnings reports from Coca-Cola and 3M also contributed to their stock price increases [2] Trade Relations - Concerns regarding US-China trade tensions have diminished as negotiations are set to resume [3] - A rare earths deal was signed between the US and Australia, aimed at countering China's influence [3] - President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a "fair deal" with President Xi of China [3] Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown is now the third-longest in history, with no plans to end it despite growing economic pressures [4] - The situation has heightened interest in Federal Reserve communications regarding interest rates ahead of an upcoming policy meeting [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak, coinciding with the release of the September Consumer Price Index report [5] - The inflation data from the report could influence market expectations for a potential quarter-point rate cut [5]

Market Overview - US stock futures paused as Wall Street focused on quarterly results from major companies like General Motors and Coca-Cola [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite remained around the flatline at market open [1] Company Earnings - Investors are anticipating significant earnings reports, particularly from Netflix and General Motors [2] - General Motors raised its full-year profit outlook, leading to a surge in its stock price [2] - Coca-Cola's earnings exceeded estimates, resulting in a positive market reaction [2] - Netflix's upcoming results are being closely watched for insights into its advertising business and live programming [2] Trade Relations - Concerns regarding US-China trade tensions have diminished as negotiations are set to resume [3] - President Trump signed a rare earths deal with Australia, indicating a strategic move against China [3] - Trump expressed optimism about reaching a "fair deal" with President Xi of China during their upcoming meeting [3] Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown is now the third-longest in history, with no plans to end it despite growing economic pressures [4] - The shutdown has shifted focus to Federal Reserve speakers for insights on interest rate policies ahead of the upcoming meeting [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak, coinciding with the release of the September Consumer Price Index report [5] - The inflation data from the report could influence market expectations for a potential quarter-point rate cut [5]

Market Overview - US stock futures paused as Wall Street shifted focus from trade war and government shutdown to quarterly earnings reports, particularly from General Motors (GM) and Netflix [1] - Major indices including Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 remained around the flatline, with tech stocks boosted by Apple reaching a new record high [1] Company Earnings - General Motors raised its full-year profit outlook, leading to a pre-market stock jump [1] - Coca-Cola's earnings exceeded estimates, resulting in a positive market reaction [1] - Investors are particularly interested in Netflix's upcoming results, which will provide insights into its advertising business and live programming [2] Trade Relations - US-China trade tensions have receded in focus as negotiations are set to resume, with President Trump optimistic about reaching a "fair deal" with President Xi [3] Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown is now the third-longest in history, with no plans to end it despite increasing economic pressures [4] - The shutdown has heightened attention on Federal Reserve communications regarding interest rates, especially with a policy meeting approaching [4][5] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak, coinciding with the release of the September Consumer Price Index report, which could influence market expectations for a potential rate cut [5]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday rose by +0.15%.  The dollar moved higher on Monday due to an easing of US-China trade tensions, which is positive for global growth prospects and the dollar after President Trump said on Sunday that, “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”   The dollar also has support as the alleged loan frauds impacting Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp appear to be confined and show no signs of contagion. Gains in the dollar were limited as Monday’s rally in stocks curbs ...

By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention. Official employment data hasn't been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed's ...