Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Scott Bessent 认为经济正在衰退 [1] - AI 领域的巨额交易正在发生，股票价格将会上涨 [1] Bitcoin & Investment - Jordi Visser 解释了比特币的“无声 IPO” [1]

Let's turn to the broader market right now. The NASDAQ coming off its seventh consecutive monthly gain as Amazon today helping boost the index this morning on a new AI deal. Joining us now is Rosenberg Research founder and president David Rosenberg.It it's so hard to tell what's going on in the underlying economy when you look at the tenure at Forb One without without the data coming in. David, what what is your what is your assessment of what's happening. Well, uh we might not have the uh the BLS data uh b ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says we are in a transition period, the Fed should be cutting rates more, and certain sectors of the economy are in a recession.When Bessent speaks, you should listen. https://t.co/Df197RR0vd ...

Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley 认为 2025 年至 2026 年经济衰退已经过去，这与市场普遍观点不同 [1] - 经济正试图减少消费，增加投资，这将带来更高的经济增速 [2] - 经济已在经历滚动复苏，但并非所有行业都会同时复苏 [4] - 预计盈利增长将超过预期，经济周期将更短 [19] Monetary Policy - 如果联邦基金利率高于两年期美国国债收益率，则美联储的政策将滞后于市场 [6] - 美联储需要降息 50 个基点才能达到中性，降息 150 个基点以上才能刺激消费 [6] - 只有在美联储的政策低于两年期美国国债收益率时，小盘股和低质量股票的表现才会相对较好 [9] Investment Strategy - 第三季度财报季提供了一个强大的选股环境 [1] - 市场对自由现金流增长放缓和资产负债表变重的公司开始质疑 [13] - 税收法案鼓励企业投资基础设施、工厂、自动化生产和机器人技术 [17][18] - 大公司正在更多地依赖债务市场进行融资，这可能影响资本回报计划 [12][16]

In this issue of Forbes Daily:- Trump will ask courts to clarify how to legally fund SNAP- Treasury Secretary says some sectors of the economy are in a recession- YouTube TV’s 10 million subscribers lost access to Disney-owned channelsRead more: https://t.co/ubjRLHL1mN ...

ToplineTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday he believes some sectors of the economy are in a recession or at risk of one, blaming the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates fast, just one day after newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran warned of high interest rates triggering a recession in an interview with The New York Times.Bessent blamed the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates fast enough.AFP via Getty Images ...

Bessent Says Some ‘Sectors’ Of Economy Are In Recessionhttps://t.co/ytbNRno3by https://t.co/cuy0CC8QSY ...

Group 1 - Chipotle's CEO attributes weak sales in the fourth quarter to financial struggles among young consumers, particularly those aged 25 to 35, who are facing challenges such as college debt and a competitive job market influenced by AI [2][3] - Approximately 40% of Chipotle's total sales come from households earning below $100,000, which have reduced dining frequency due to economic and inflation concerns [3] - Despite a general perception of consumer stability, Chipotle's sales trends indicate a decline, contrasting with other companies like American Express, which reported strong performance driven by millennial spending [4] Group 2 - American Express reported a strong third quarter, with significant growth attributed to millennial spending and an increase in the annual fee for the Platinum Card, which did not deter sign-ups [4] - Hasbro's CEO noted a 42% increase in revenue from digital games, driven by younger consumers, particularly highlighting the success of "Magic: The Gathering" and licensed digital gaming [4]

Core Insights - Companies are increasingly offering buyouts as a strategy to reduce workforce numbers, especially in a weakening job market [1][2][5] - The Trump administration's buyout offer to federal workers aimed to reduce the workforce by up to 10%, with approximately 75,000 workers accepting [2] - The current economic climate shows a soft job market, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and unemployment rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [3][4] Company Strategies - Employers use buyouts to avoid layoffs, providing a financial incentive for employees to leave voluntarily [1][15] - Companies like Amazon, UPS, and Target have recently announced layoffs, indicating a trend in the private sector [2] - Buyouts can be a win-win situation for both employers and employees, especially if approached proactively by the employee [8] Economic Context - Nearly 2 million Americans have been unemployed for six months or longer, highlighting the challenges in the job market [4] - Economic uncertainty, including concerns over tariffs and the impact of artificial intelligence on job availability, contributes to a cautious hiring environment [4][5] Employee Considerations - Employees contemplating a buyout should evaluate the severance package, their proximity to retirement, and their job satisfaction [3][9] - It is advisable for employees to gauge the job market before accepting a buyout, including applying for jobs to assess interest [12][13] - Employees should negotiate buyout terms, as many accept offers without discussion, potentially missing out on better packages [9][10] Timing and Decision-Making - Employees should take adequate time to consider a buyout offer, ideally having several weeks to months to make a decision [19][20] - Factors to consider include career goals, financial stability, and potential relocation [20] - Consulting with a financial planner before making a decision is recommended to ensure preparedness for potential joblessness [20][21]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The 10-year note yield reached 4.11% and the 2-year note yield reached 3.60%, marking their highest levels in nearly three weeks and over a month respectively [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [8] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.17%, the lowest level in over a year [8] Group 3: Historical Context and False Positives - Historical analysis shows a false positive in 1998 where the 10-2 spread went negative without leading to a recession, contrasting with multiple instances before the 2009 recession [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern of false positives and negative spreads prior to recessions, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [6]