2025 年 4 月 15 日 集运指数（欧线）： 6-10 正套、8-10 正套、10- 12 反套轻仓持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie026585@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2504 | 1,480.0 | -0.83% | 126 | | 1,297 | -33 | 0.10 | | 0.16 | | 期货 | EC2506 | 1,697.0 | -5.30% | 54,583 | | 33,133 | 1,321 | 1.65 | | 2.39 | | | EC2508 | 1,708.0 | -1.80% | 21,084 | | 29,8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policy has an impact on market expectations, and investors are advised to focus on Maersk's WEEK17 weekly quotes [1] - The geopolitical situation shows that the US and Iran may conduct direct negotiations, which adds uncertainty to the market [2] - In April, the shipping capacity is relatively abundant, while in May, it is currently relatively scarce. Investors need to pay attention to the possible release of more blank sailings in May [2] - Major shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of April, and CMA has officially announced the May quotation from Tianjin Xingang to Rotterdam, indicating that shipping companies are trying to create a price - increasing atmosphere during the off - peak to peak season transition [3] - With the approach of the peak season, shipping companies are expected to issue price - increase letters every month before July, which may lead to a strong short - term trend of the 06 and 08 forward contracts. However, the height of the peak - season prices should be expected to be lower [4] - In May, the price - holding effect is expected to be better than that in March and April. The 06 and 08 contracts are relatively safe for short - term long positions, but investors need to pay attention to the upward height. Due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the predicted pressure on US container imports in the second half of the year, if US - bound ships are redeployed to European routes, it will have a negative impact on European route freight rates. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations, such as going long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [5] - The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of April 8, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 81,272.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 120,506.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2504, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1441.50, 1517.70, 1885.00, 1980.10, 1388.80, and 1609.80 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On April 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1336.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2313.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3306.00 US dollars/FEU. On April 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1422.42 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1129.45 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of March 31, 2025, 23 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 345,000 TEU, and 2 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 47,000 TEU [6] 3.4 Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may affect the shipping market. The shipping capacity in April is relatively high, and in May, it is relatively low. There are currently blank sailings in WEEK15, 18, 19, 20, and 21, and attention should be paid to whether more blank sailings will be released in May [2] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided other than the potential impact of the above - mentioned factors on the shipping market.