航运日报 | 2025-10-10 巴以和谈消息扰动远月，马士基发布11月份涨价函 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹43周报价1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半 月价格1535/2535。HPL发布最新涨价函，10月15日之后运价涨至1200/2000；马士基发布11月份涨价函，11月3日 之后价格涨至1625/2500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月上半月价格855/1415，10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065；ONE 10月下半月价格 1305/2035；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格1268/2106; YML 10/15-10/31报价1100/1900。MSC发布10/15-10/31 日涨价函 1320/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价1010/1620，10月下半月价格1310/2220，11月上半月船期 报价1691/2984；EMC 10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1610，10月下半月船期报价1355/ ...

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-25 马士基WEEK42周报价开出，10月合约交割结算价格逐渐清 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价875/1470，41周报价840/1400，42周报价涨至1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格935/1435，10月上半月价格935/1435，10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半月价格1535/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月上半月价格915/1515；ONE 10月上半月船期报价915/1435；HMM上海-鹿特丹 10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9月22日至10月15日报价850/1300。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620，10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价，价格为1460/2520。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710；OOCL 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1450美元/FEU。 地缘端： 波兰总理：伊 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 船司10月下半月尝试挺价，关注MSC以及马士基下半月报价 情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价875/1470，41周报价840/1400；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格 935/1435，10月上半月价格935/1435，10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半月价格1535/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价890/1490，10月上半月价格890/1490；ONE 10月上半月船期报 价915/1435；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9月22日至10月15日报价850/1300。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620，10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价，价格为1460/2520。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710；OOCL 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1450美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route continued to decline in the first week of October, and the freight rate center continued to move down [1]. - For the October contract, it is relatively safe to be short - allocated as the driver is downward, but the key lies in the downward space, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be gradually carried out to trade the expected price increase by shipping companies for November and December [5]. - For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the recent Trump tariff risk, which, if implemented, will have a great impact on the demand of the European line and be negative for the prices of the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that the prices of various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route have different degrees of decline. For example, Maersk's prices in weeks 38 - 40 decreased, and the prices of other companies such as HPL, MSC, and ONE also changed [1]. - Geopolitically, Israel's large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip may affect the shipping market, with nearly 400,000 people having left Gaza City [2]. - The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports in October is 278,000 TEU, with 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional ships in October [3]. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated in the off - peak season, and the valuation continues to be revised down. The delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The current market price center in the second half of September has dropped to around $1500/FEU. The two additional ships announced by HPL may put pressure on the spot price in October [4]. - **December Contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be carried out to trade the expected price increase. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the possible transfer of US - line ships to the European line [5]. - **Far - month Contracts**: Trump's call for NATO to impose a 50% - 100% tariff on China may have a great impact on the European line demand and be negative for the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Other Information - As of September 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,629.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,388.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU [7]. - Strategies include a weak - oscillating main contract for the unilateral strategy and shorting the October contract for the arbitrage strategy [8].

航运日报 | 2025-09-16 关注下周马士基10月第一周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1055/1770，39周报价950/1590；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格 1035/1535，10月上半月价格1035/1535。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价950/1590，10月上半月价格950/1590；ONE 9月下半月船期报价 1354/1643，10月上半月船期报价1365/1665；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1015/1600; YML 9月下半月至 10月15日报价950/1500。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1060/1720；EMC 9月份下半月船期价格介于1610-1710； OOCL 9月船期价格介于1600-1700美元/FEU。 地缘端： 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡13日在社交媒体上发文称，"清除"身处卡塔尔的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马 斯）领导层，将为实现加沙地带停火扫除"主要障碍"。对此，《以色列时报》13日解读说，内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the first week of October next week [1]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [6][7]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract. Recently, the expectation of price increase in November can be speculated on, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline [8]. - The main contract is oscillating weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 38 is 1055/1770, and in week 39 it is 950/1590. HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. Maersk's PSS for the Far East - Nordic region drops to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched an attack on Hamas' senior political leaders in Doha, Qatar, which further escalated the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it blatantly violated international law [3]. 3.2 Static Supply - As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 873,200 TEU, and 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 194,840 TEU have been delivered. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, especially in 2027, 2028, and 2029 when the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU exceeds 35 [4]. 3.3 Dynamic Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there were 4 blank sailings and 0 TBNs, while in October, there were 10 blank sailings and 6 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships for October, which may put pressure on the spot price in October [5]. 3.4 Contracts Analysis - **10 - Month Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. The current market price center in the first half of October is around 1600 US dollars/FEU, and there is a possibility of further decline. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. If the price increase is successful in the second half of October, the optimistic valuation ceiling of the 10 - month contract may be around 1200 points; otherwise, it may be lower than 1100 points [6][7]. - **12 - Month Contract**: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line, it may put pressure on European line prices [8]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract [10]. 3.6 Futures and Spot Prices - As of September 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,647 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,107 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [9].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-11 运价中枢继续下修，马士基WEEK39周报价开出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1050/1760，39周报价1550美元/FEU；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价 格935/1535，10月上半月价格935/1535。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. 地缘端： 一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大 对加沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官员称，美国总统特朗普已批准对卡塔尔的 哈马斯领导人发动袭击。卡塔尔是美国在该地区的重要合作伙伴，但哈马斯的政治领导人在那里设有办公室和住 所。目前尚不清楚是否有人在袭击中丧生。以色列国防部长卡茨早些时候警告海外的哈马斯领导人，如果该组织 不放下武器，他们将被歼灭。卡塔尔方面表示，这次袭击公然违反了所有国际法，谴责以色列在多哈发动针对哈 马斯官员的"懦弱"袭击。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年9月7日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶182艘，合计交付运力147.2万TEU。 12000 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Maersk has lowered its freight rate to $1700/FEU, and the freight rates of other shipping companies are also following suit. The overall freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the cargo collection pressure is relatively high. [1][4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center continues to decline. With the release of HPL's two additional vessels in October, it is expected to put pressure on the spot price in October. [4] - The December contract still follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are diverted to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices. [5] - The main contract of container shipping index futures is oscillating weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different freight rate quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 37 - week price for Shanghai - Rotterdam is $1175/1970, and the 38 - week price is $1025/1710. [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military stated that it would intensify its military operations in the Gaza Strip. [2] - **Blank Sailings and Additional Vessels**: MSC has announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week, with a total of about 59,000 TEU of capacity affected. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. [3] 2. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The delivery and settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. In normal years, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center has dropped, and short - allocation is relatively safe. [4] - **December Contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, the freight rate is usually higher. However, the risk is the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [5] 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 2, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts vary. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1550.10, and the EC2510 contract closed at 1340.70. [6] - **Spot Prices**: On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, and on September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points. [6] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. [7] 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. [7] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the October contract when the price is high. [7]

航运日报 | 2025-08-28 运价中枢持续下修，关注其他船司运价调整情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹36周价格1315/2210，37周价格开出为1140/1900（目前已经涨至 1155/1930）；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月船期报价1185/1935，9月下半月价格1185/1935。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为 50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月上半月船期报价1406/2352；ONE9月上半月船期报价1504/2343；HMM上海-鹿 特丹9月上半月船期报价1315/2200; YML9月上半月报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月1日-6日船期报价1410/2420，9月6日-20日船期报价1310/2220；EMC 9月份 船期价格1605/2410；OOCL 9月上半月船期价格2100-2200美元/FEU。 地缘端：以色列总理内塔尼亚胡：以色列对今天发生在加沙纳赛尔医院的这起悲剧性事故深感遗憾。 特朗普：与 内塔尼亚胡打交道相当棘手。预计未来2到3周 ...