some confirmation and it may get it at Jackson Hole. If the chair uses that platform to set the table I want to move and talk about the stock of the day because it's Palantir and it is at a record high. After beating on earnings, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever.The stock has just ripped. We've mentioned it on so many occasions because of what's happened in the high beta universe, where most of those stocks have ripped, but this is the one that investors have continued to z ...

Investment Strategy - The company focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation and asymmetric risk/reward, and portfolio construction and risk control [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential, along with smart capital allocation and insider ownership [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are critical factors for evaluation [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are key competitive advantages [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries are prioritized [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is a focus area [1] - Maintaining a strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway is crucial [1] - Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness is emphasized [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are part of the evaluation process [1] - Ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential is a priority [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are allocated to high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are made in moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Group (000921.SZ) 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances Group - **Ticker**: 000921.SZ - **Period**: 2Q25 Key Financial Metrics - **Total Revenue**: Rmb49,340 million in 1H25, +1% YoY - **Net Profit**: Rmb2,077 million in 1H25, +3% YoY - **2Q Performance**: Revenue and net profit declined by -3% and -8% YoY respectively, which was below expectations [1][8] Core Business Insights - **Central AC Impact**: Central air conditioning (AC) sales experienced a significant decline of 10%+ in 2Q25, attributed to a weak property market and reduced support from trade-in programs [3][4] - **Legacy White Goods**: Sales of washing machines and refrigerators grew by +5% and +14% YoY respectively in 1H25, aligning with expectations [3] - **Regional Performance**: Overseas sales maintained resilience with +12% YoY growth in 1H25, while domestic sales were flat YoY, indicating a sequential decline in 2Q due to central AC pressures [3] Margin Analysis - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Increased by 0.6 percentage points to 21.5% in 2Q25 - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: Remained stable at 4.8% in 2Q25 - **Core EBIT Growth**: Excluding non-recurring items, core EBIT grew by 7% in 2Q25 [3] Management Focus Areas - Upcoming earnings call expected to address: 1. Channel breakdown of 2Q decline and outlook for central AC business 2. Trade-in stimulus impacts on domestic legacy white goods 3. Competition intensity in split AC market 4. Updates on export orders and tariff impacts 5. Potential for margin expansion [4] Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Buy - **Rationale**: 1. High earnings growth visibility supported by 2024 ESOP target 2. Attractive dividend yield 3. Undemanding forward P/E valuation against high single-digit profit growth expectations - **Future Drivers**: 1. Growth in the VRF business through Hisense-Hitachi JV 2. Margin improvement in legacy white goods 3. Operational improvements at Sanden with rising EV contributions [5] Valuation and Price Target - **12-month Target Price**: Rmb34 for A-shares and HK$29 for H-shares, based on 14x/11x 2027E P/Es for Hisense-Hitachi JV and legacy white goods respectively [6] Key Risks 1. Weaker-than-expected demand for white goods due to global macroeconomic conditions 2. Further property market slowdown affecting VRF demand 3. Increased competition from domestic players threatening Hisense-Hitachi JV's position 4. Margin dilution from higher developer channel penetration 5. Below-expected integration of Hisense-Hitachi JV 6. Underperformance of legacy white goods business [7]

Summary of Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - **Quarter**: Q2 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Total Revenues**: Grew by 13% YoY to $167.7 billion, exceeding Goldman Sachs estimates of $162.5 billion and FactSet consensus of $162.2 billion [2] - **GAAP EBIT**: Reported at $19.2 billion, surpassing Goldman Sachs estimate of $16.8 billion and Street estimate of $16.9 billion [2] - **AWS Revenue**: Increased by 17% YoY to $30.9 billion, slightly above Goldman Sachs estimate of $30.7 billion and Street estimate of $30.8 billion [5] - **Operating Income Guidance for Q3 2025**: Expected between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, compared to Goldman Sachs estimate of $17.8 billion [6] Segment Performance - **Online Stores Revenue**: Grew by 11% to $61.5 billion, exceeding Goldman Sachs estimate of $59.3 billion [2] - **Physical Stores Revenue**: Increased by 7% to $5.6 billion, in line with Goldman Sachs estimate [2] - **Third-Party Seller Services Revenue**: Grew by 11% to $40.3 billion, surpassing Goldman Sachs estimate of $39.1 billion [2] - **Subscription Services Revenue**: Increased by 12% to $12.2 billion, slightly above Goldman Sachs estimate of $12.0 billion [2] - **Advertising Services Revenue**: Grew by 23% to $15.7 billion, exceeding Goldman Sachs estimate of $14.6 billion [5] Forward Guidance and Expectations - **Q3 2025 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to be between $174.0 billion and $179.5 billion, with a favorable impact from foreign exchange rates [6] - **Focus Areas for Investors**: - Global consumer state as 2025 progresses - Realignment of global operations in response to potential tariff changes - Key investments and efficiency sources across commerce initiatives - Non-revenue generating investments impacting profitability, such as Project Kuiper satellites - AWS revenue growth and margin dynamics, particularly in the competitive landscape [1] Risks and Challenges - **Risks to Buy Rating**: - Competition impacting eCommerce and Cloud growth - Challenges in scaling high-margin businesses like Advertising and Cloud - Investments creating headwinds to gross or operating margins - Regulatory compliance changes affecting product/platform adjustments - Exposure to global macroeconomic volatility and investor risk appetite for growth stocks [8] Valuation and Price Target - **12-Month Price Target**: Set at $220, based on a blend of EV/GAAP EBITDA and modified DCF analysis [7] - **Current Price**: $230.19, indicating a downside potential of 4.4% [9] Additional Insights - **AWS Profitability**: Notably weaker than Goldman Sachs estimates in Q2, with a focus on specifics regarding AWS revenue growth drivers for the second half of 2025 [1] - **AI Landscape Commentary**: Anticipated management commentary on AI developments and capital expenditure trends during the earnings call [1]

Summary of Conference Call on China Education Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China education industry, specifically comparing TAL Education Group (TAL) and New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) [6][8]. Key Points on TAL Education Group (TAL) - **Revenue Growth and Margins**: TAL is expected to have a better setup for FY26 compared to EDU, with deferred revenue growing by 52% year-over-year (YoY) in F1Q26, indicating strong growth potential for FY26 [8][11]. - **Shareholder Returns**: TAL repurchased approximately US$477.4 million worth of shares in F1Q26, which is about 7% of its market cap, at an average price of US$10.5. A new buyback program of US$600 million was also announced [8][11]. - **Valuation**: TAL trades at 19.3x F27 PE and 8.1x F27 ex-cash PE, with projected revenue and net profit compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 21% and 40% respectively over FY26-29 [8][11]. Key Points on New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) - **Revenue Guidance**: EDU's revenue guidance for F1Q26 is +2-5% and +5-10% for FY26, which is below market expectations due to a weaker overseas business outlook and a higher base in the educational business [8][10]. - **Operational Profit Margin (OPM)**: Management guided for OPM to increase by 0-0.5 percentage points YoY for F1Q26, but expects a flat OPM for FY26 due to cost control efforts being offset by margin drag from overseas business [8][10]. - **Shareholder Returns**: EDU announced a three-year recurrent shareholder return plan to return no less than 50% of GAAP net income, implying at least US$186 million in FY26, which is lower than the US$500 million returned in FY25 [8][10]. Comparative Analysis - **Investment Preference**: Morgan Stanley prefers TAL (Overweight) over EDU (Equal-Weight) in the China education sector due to TAL's stronger revenue growth and margin trends [8][10]. - **Market Expectations**: TAL's performance is seen as more favorable compared to EDU, which is struggling with lower revenue guidance and operational challenges [8][10]. Additional Insights - **Risks**: Potential risks for both companies include intensified competition, regulatory changes in high school and non-academic tutoring, and the visibility of revenue from live-streaming e-commerce businesses [15][16]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards the China education industry remains attractive, with expectations for market share gains and earnings growth potential for both TAL and EDU [6][8]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding TAL and EDU, highlighting their financial performance, shareholder return strategies, and market positioning within the China education sector.

Joining us now is Clockwise Capital CIO James Chuckmuk. Sarati is with us on set as well. Both are in a lot of tech names that we regularly talk about it.And James to to start off with Palunteer this is a run reminiscent of Nvidia say starting sometime in 2023 um but maybe faster than that. What do you have to believe about Palunteer and its Nvidiaike potential to to keep buying it here. Yeah, I mean it's it's a historic run uh that we've seen out of Palunteer.You know, when we first bought it back in the $ ...

If anyone's watching the show and those two stocks have an outsized impact on your portfolio, I encourage you to diversify. I look at small caps in the US trading at the the cheapest valuation relative to large cap caps since 2000, since June of 2000. And if you look at the 25 years since then, small caps have actually outperformed large caps even with Microsoft and Apple and Meta and everyone else driving them higher.Valuation is not a perfect timing tool. Um, but it does tend to work longer term. And righ ...

Ahead of earnings, Palantir is near a record high and boasts the highest price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 — but Wall Street has long been leery of the company's runaway valuation https://t.co/rnK3bVXFvc ...

For such a mature and massive entity, it can be surprising to learn that JPMorgan's stock has produced a total return of 253% in the past five years (as of July 31). This comes from a combination of the share price appreciating and the company's dividend payout, turning $1,000 into $3,530 today. What's impressive is that the business has successfully navigated a dynamic macro environment. Interest rates were extremely low after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, before rising rapidly in 2022. They appear t ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) and the author's previous rating of the stock as a "hold" due to insufficient margin of safety amid uncertainties [1] - The author highlights the investment strategy of a boutique family office fund led by Amrita, focusing on sustainable, growth-driven companies that maximize shareholder equity [1] - Amrita's background includes five years in high-growth supply-chain start-ups and collaboration with venture capital firms, emphasizing her expertise in user acquisition and portfolio management [1] Group 2 - The article mentions Amrita's award-winning newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist, which aims to simplify financial literacy and macroeconomic concepts for a broader audience [1] - The newsletter has been recognized as the Top Newsletter in Finance on popular platforms, indicating its influence and reach in the financial community [1]