It’s about more than denying inflation https://t.co/OIeM38mw5e ...

I'm at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank with the president, Beth Hammock. Uh Beth, thank you for having us here in Cleveland, >> Steve. We're thrilled that you came out and made the trip.>> Great. What an interesting conference you're putting on about financial stability. A good time for that, but also good time to talk about the outlook for Fed policy.Uh let's start with the easy thing, which is my question about your takeaway from this morning's jobs report. >> Um well, we we've only had a short amount ...

Core Insights - Retail and restaurant chains are experiencing the effects of persistent inflation, particularly as lower-income customers reduce their spending [1] Company Summary: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. - Chipotle's stock fell 19% in one day after missing Q3 revenue estimates and lowering its full-year same-store sales forecast [2] - The average cost of a burrito or bowl at Chipotle is approximately $10-$12, and the company is facing challenges as fewer young Americans dine out due to inflation and declining consumer sentiment [2] - CEO Scott Boatwright noted that customers with household incomes below $100,000 account for about 40% of Chipotle's total sales [3] - There is a "broad-based" decline in dining out across all income levels, attributed to a significant drop in consumer sentiment earlier this year [3] - A report indicated that the consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month in October, reaching its lowest level in six months [4] - Young Americans aged 25 to 35 are facing challenges such as unemployment, increased student loans, and slower wage growth, impacting their dining habits [4] - Chipotle now anticipates same-store sales to decline in the low-single-digit range in 2025, a revision from its previous forecast of flat sales [5] - The company's shares have decreased by 47% year-to-date [5] - Boatwright stated that younger consumers are opting to eat at home rather than dining out, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to rising costs [6]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.04% after reaching a 5.5-month high, influenced by mixed economic data [1] - US September nonfarm payrolls increased by +119,000, surpassing expectations of +51,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1% to 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years, suggesting some weakness in the labor market [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -8,000 to 220,000, better than the expected 227,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest in four years [2] - October existing home sales rose by +1.2% month-over-month to 4.10 million, exceeding expectations of 4.08 million [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 39% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that lowering interest rates could prolong elevated inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets, which supports a hawkish stance [4] Eurozone Context - The EUR/USD pair fell by -0.04%, reaching a two-week low, influenced by a weaker-than-expected Eurozone consumer confidence index [5] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts through the end of 2026 [5]

So that's your setup for the day off the back of this earnings report, off the back of the data that we've been waiting for. So let's get to Kevin Green who joins me now to get across some other numbers and we're getting some existing home sales. Print, uh, talk us through what you're seeing as far as that one, KG, this morning.>> Yeah, for existing home sales, we actually saw that number coming in at 4.1% million for the month of October. The street was looking for 4.08% million, so pretty much in line wit ...

Economic Performance - The recent jobs report indicated a significant increase of 119,000 new jobs, surpassing expectations of 51,000, suggesting a strong economy [1][21] - Out of the 119,000 jobs created, 97,000 were in the private sector, highlighting a shift from previous trends where government jobs dominated [7][16] Labor Market Insights - There is a growing desire among individuals to enter the workforce, with many actively seeking employment opportunities [2] - Real wages have increased by nearly $700, contrasting with a previous decline of approximately $3,000 during the prior administration, indicating improved financial conditions for families [10] Inflation and Economic Policy - Concerns about inflation persist, particularly regarding its impact on lower-income workers, but there are indications that food and energy prices have decreased [8][12] - The administration is considering further rate cuts to stimulate borrowing and investment in the workforce, which could support economic growth [6][14] Government Initiatives - The administration is promoting policies aimed at increasing disposable income for families, such as tax cuts and potential rebate checks funded by tariffs [9][17][18] - The focus remains on enhancing the private sector's role in job creation, contrasting with previous government-centric job growth [16][19]

Let me first ask you about the headline number. It was a blowout. We were only expecting 51,000 in our survey and far more than double.That is what we got. How strong is this economy. 119,000 new jobs.I think that is a solid report for the American people and for the workforce. We have seen over and over again, you know, that we want to have these gains. And it's those investments by this administration and this president.I think that's what you're seeing come online. So this was a solid report for these Se ...

Core Viewpoint - Central bank policymakers are divided on the necessity of cutting interest rates for the third consecutive meeting due to rising inflation and a slowing labor market [1] Group 1 - Inflation is experiencing an uptick, which is a significant concern for policymakers [1] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, adding complexity to the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has expressed opposition to further Fed rate cuts, citing concerns over prolonged elevated inflation and potential risks in financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Rate Cuts - Hammack indicated that additional rate cuts could support risky lending practices and inflate asset valuations, potentially leading to a more severe economic downturn in the future [3][4]. - The Fed has already implemented two 25 basis point cuts this year to stabilize the labor market, but Hammack cautioned that this could heighten financial stability risks [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Hammack warned that lowering interest rates further could exacerbate inflation, which is currently at 3%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [6][7]. - Other Fed officials, including Governor Michael Barr and President Jeff Schmid, have echoed similar concerns regarding the risks of rising inflation and the need for caution in monetary policy [6][7]. Group 3: Decision-Making Dilemma - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is facing a dilemma regarding its dual mandate of managing inflation and supporting the labor market as it considers the possibility of another rate cut in December [5][8]. - Recent economic outlooks suggest that many Fed officials believe it may be appropriate to maintain the current target range for interest rates for the remainder of the year [5].

While moments ago, the September jobs report was finally released after it had been delayed by the government shutdown. It showed that employers added 119,000 jobs. That is more than expected.>> But the unemployment rate also increased to 4.4% which is the highest it's been since October 2021. We're looking confused here at the table. So thankfully we have co-anchor of CNBC Squawkbox and a New York Times colonist Andrew Rossin to explain it to us.And we should note that his book 1929 inside the greatest cra ...