Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.13% due to signs of weakness in the US labor market, which have increased expectations for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates after ADP reported job cuts this month [1] - US weekly initial unemployment claims were reported at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims rising by +10,000 to a two-month high of 1.957 million [2] - ADP reported that US employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 1 [3] Housing Market - The November NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose by +1 to a seven-month high of 38, surpassing expectations of no change at 37 [3] Currency Movements - EUR/USD recovered from overnight losses, up by +0.09%, as weakness in the US labor market benefits the euro, with the ECB seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle [4] - USD/JPY is down by -0.10%, with the yen recovering from a 9.5-month low against the dollar, supported by falling T-note yields and safe-haven demand due to a -3% slump in the Nikkei Stock index [6] - The yen initially moved lower due to dovish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda regarding gradual adjustments to monetary easing [7] Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in a 49% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [3] - Swaps are pricing in a 4% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for continued rate cuts, emphasizing the need to address risks from a weakening labor market, with a proposed cut at the next meeting in December [1][7]. Labor Market Analysis - Waller identifies the "weak labor market" as a primary concern, prioritizing it over inflation worries, stating he is not significantly concerned about inflation accelerating [2][5]. - He describes the labor market as "still weak and near stall speed," attributing the slowdown to falling demand rather than supply issues, supported by private-sector data [4][5]. Economic Data and Insights - Despite a government shutdown delaying key economic reports, Waller asserts that there is sufficient private and public data to inform economic conditions, indicating that policymakers are not "flying blind" [3]. - He highlights strains on U.S. consumers, particularly middle- and lower-income groups facing challenges like low housing affordability and high auto purchasing costs [6]. Rate Cut Justification - Waller concludes that a 25-basis-point cut in December is essential for "risk management," aiming to provide insurance against further deterioration in the labor market and to move policy towards a neutral stance [7]. Market Reactions - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 46.6% probability of a rate cut during the December meeting, reflecting market sentiment [8]. - Following Waller's remarks, major ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 experienced declines, with SPY down 0.93% and QQQ down 0.85% [8].

Gold steadied, after three days of losses underpinned by fading expectations of a US interest rate cut next month https://t.co/4takJluhtz ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are experiencing losses amid a broader downturn in risk-on assets, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, including concerns about U.S. interest rates and tech firms' spending on AI initiatives [1][3] - Bitcoin is trading at approximately $92,200, down 2.3% in the last 24 hours, marking its lowest level since late April [1] - Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has dropped more than 14%, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Sentiment - The current drawdown in digital assets reflects a risk-off rotation influenced by macro headwinds, including a recalibration of liquidity expectations and reduced probability of a December interest rate cut [3] - Concerns about U.S. trade wars, missing figures from jobs and inflation reports, and a slumping economy have negatively impacted market sentiment [3] Company Impact - Major companies like Google and Microsoft are committing to AI projects, which may affect their balance sheets in the near term [4] - The technology-focused Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices closed down by about 1%, continuing their recent declines [5] - Crypto-focused stocks, such as Coinbase, saw significant declines, with Coinbase tumbling over 7% [5] Market Activity - Investors liquidated over $900 million in positions in the past 24 hours, including more than $550 million in long positions [5] - Selling pressure from whales and miners has contributed to the price drop, particularly after key price levels were breached, leading to liquidations in derivative markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market is showing signs of stagnation, prompting discussions for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Employment Data - State unemployment claims have risen slightly, indicating a potential weakening in the job market [1] - Layoff numbers are increasing, further suggesting a slowdown in employment growth [1] Wage Pressures - There is no evidence of building wage pressures, which typically influence inflation and monetary policy decisions [1] Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut in response to the current economic indicators [1]

Market Performance - Major U.S. indexes showed mixed performance last week, with the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 2.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Investors are shifting focus from high-valuation technology and AI stocks to more defensive sectors due to market volatility [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The end of a 43-day government standoff has reduced political risks, but delays in key economic data releases have created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve and investors [2] - The Fed is balancing economic growth and inflation, with inflation remaining above the 2% target and a resilient labor market casting doubt on December rate cut expectations [2] Zacks Research Performance - Zacks Research has provided guidance that led to significant stock performance, with Macy's shares increasing by 14.9% since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on September 18, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.2% increase [3][4] - Fresnillo plc also saw a 7.2% return since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on September 19, compared to the S&P 500's 1.8% increase [4] Zacks Model Portfolio Returns - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +8.64% in 2025 through September 1, outperforming the S&P 500's +7.60% [4] - The Zacks Model Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 index by over 12 percentage points since 1988, with an annualized average return of +23.8% compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 [5] Specific Stock Performances - United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) shares increased by 32.4% after its Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform [7] - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) gained 35.9% over the past 12 weeks, while CACI International Inc. (CACI) returned 20.1% during the same period [10] Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) - The ECAP returned -1.30% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's +8.1% gain, and +2.72% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's +14.84% [15] - The portfolio aims to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies with a proven track record of earnings stability [16] Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) returned 10.9% over the past 12 weeks, while UnitedHealth Group (UNH) increased by 5.9% [18] - The ECDP returned -0.01% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's +8.1% gain [20] Top 10 Stock Portfolio - MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) has jumped 41.2% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 14.7% increase [22] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,553.1% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +545.2% [24]

Market Overview - Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time this month, driven by reduced expectations for a US interest rate cut following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][4] - Global stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.65%, S&P 500 down 1.66%, and Nasdaq down 2.29%, primarily due to a sell-off in tech stocks like Nvidia [3] - Asian markets also faced losses, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.77%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 down 1.35%, and New Zealand's benchmark down 1.58% [3] Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's recent drop erased gains that were previously attributed to optimism around institutional inflows, with liquidity thinning and momentum fading [4] - Maja Vujinovic from FG Nexus indicated that multiple strains on the market, including macroeconomic and tech-related risks, contributed to Bitcoin's decline, emphasizing the need for renewed institutional conviction for future price increases [5] - The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased to $3.41 trillion, down 3.8%, with Bitcoin trading at $99,063, down 2.9%, and Ether at $3,224, down 6.9% [8] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve officials signaled caution regarding near-term policy easing, with Treasury yields climbing as market expectations for a December rate cut diminished [6][7] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and St. Louis Fed chief Alberto Musalem highlighted the necessity of maintaining restrictive rates to control inflation, reinforcing the notion that the Fed may hold rates longer than previously anticipated [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is experiencing significant downward pressure in 2025 due to Fed interest rate cuts and economic instability, leading to increased investor anxiety and a negative outlook for the greenback [1]. Factors Behind Greenback's Decline - Concerns over a potential AI bubble and high equity valuations are prompting investors to move away from U.S. equities, further weakening the dollar [2]. - Increased hedging activity has contributed to the dollar's weakness this year [2]. Impact of Fed Policies - The value of the dollar is inversely related to the Fed's monetary policies, with interest rate cuts making the dollar less attractive to foreign investors [4]. - Markets are predicting a 53.6% chance of another interest rate cut in December, with 80% of economists expecting a 25 basis point reduction to support the cooling labor market [5]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify and hedge their portfolios against a weakening dollar by increasing exposure to specific funds [6]. - Recommended funds include WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) to enhance exposure to gold [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently facing uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts, with a divided stance among its officials and a lack of critical economic data influencing their decisions [4][8][11]. Group 1: Inflation Data and Analysis - The White House indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs data for October may not be released, leading the Fed to consider alternative inflation data, such as State Street's price statistics, which have shown a gradual increase since May [2][3]. - The alternative data has been stable over the past two months but does not account for services, which is a significant gap in understanding overall inflation trends [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Positions - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed opposition to a December rate cut, citing business survey data indicating intentions to raise prices, and noted inflation's spread into core services [4]. - A growing number of voting members at the FOMC are either against or cautious about a December rate cut, with six out of twelve members showing this divided sentiment [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Probabilities - Prior to recent comments from Fed officials, the market had a 64% probability of a December rate cut, which has since dropped to a 50% chance, while a 69% probability remains for a cut by January [7]. - The market's reaction reflects the uncertainty and differing opinions among Fed officials regarding the importance of various economic data points [9][12]. Group 4: Economic Conditions and Future Outlook - There is a belief among some Fed officials that the economy is performing well, with the stock market acting as a tailwind, complicating the decision-making process regarding rate cuts [15]. - A definitive weak jobs report is seen as necessary to sway cautious officials towards supporting a rate cut, highlighting the importance of employment data in the Fed's considerations [15].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.81%, while expectations for monetary easing are increasing due to economic pressures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The interbank bond market yields have shown slight fluctuations, with the 3-month yield around 1.35%, the 2-year yield at 1.43%, and the 10-year yield at 1.81% [3]. - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing the central bank's commitment to maintaining relatively loose financing conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a growing expectation for "double cuts" (interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts) due to marginal increases in economic recovery pressures and liquidity constraints [5][6]. - The central bank's monetary policy report has shifted focus away from preventing capital idling, indicating a more optimistic stance on future liquidity conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, balancing short-term safety with long-term trading opportunities to manage potential market volatility [9]. - The bond market is expected to enter a "chaotic period" with limited space for both bullish and bearish movements, as the market awaits clearer signals for direction [8].