Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Group 1: Retail Earnings - Lowe's shares are indicated higher by 3% in premarket trading after beating earnings expectations, meeting revenue forecasts, and raising future sales guidance [3] - Target shares are down 9% in premarket despite beating revenue and earnings forecasts, as overall sales and traffic fell [4] - TJX Companies shares are indicated higher by nearly 4% after raising full-year earnings per share guidance following a stronger-than-expected quarter [5] Group 2: Market Trends - Technology stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 3.5% and Palantir down 9%, leading to a 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq Composite [2] - Home Depot's stock rose 3% following a solid earnings report, contrasting with Target's significant drop [6][4] - Market volatility remains low with the VIX under 16, and S&P 500 profits have been strong and better than expected [10] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The annual economic conference in Jackson Hole is underway, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech anticipated on Friday [8] - The probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the September Fed meeting is currently at 83% according to the CME Fed Watch Tool [8] - Home Depot indicated modest price increases are likely, a shift from previous statements about tariffs not impacting pricing [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Lowe's announced an $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials to attract more home building and home improvement professionals [3] - Intel shares have risen 27% this month following discussions of U.S. government investment and a $2 billion investment from Softbank [9] - The Trump administration is considering taking a stake in Intel, with similar discussions for Micron and Taiwan Semiconductor [9]

Tuesday, August 19, 2025Homebuilding news takes center stage this morning — in fact, this week has important housing data all through it — with Housing Starts and Building Permits for July pointing in two distinctly different directions. Pre-market futures were already showing some improvement from overnight lows, but have pointed north on the new data.Housing Starts, Building Permits Point to Big DifferencesLast month, Housing Starts came in at multi-month highs to 1.43 million seasonally adjusted, annuali ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月19日电华泰证券研报指出，预计三季度关税温和推高美国核心通胀，市场在通胀上升 幅度及持续时间上存在分歧。美联储大概率9月重启降息周期。虽然通胀将在三季度回升，但预计对美 联储2025年降息的制约有限。 由于通胀传导未必超预期，短期通胀回升对美债收益率影响有限，但"大而美"法案实施后美债收益率仍 有压力，关注金融去监管、美元稳定币扩容、美债发行结构变化可能形成的缓冲，维持中长期美元面临 贬值压力的观点。 ...

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Heyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures wavering with major averages trading within points of their record highs. Investors will be closely watching everything from central banks to geopolitics this week. President Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Vudamir Zilinski this afternoon following his summit with Vladimir Putin on Friday.A resol resolution in the Ukraine war could be a ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The markets were mostly flat, with the small-cap Russell 2000 declining by -1.24% after a +2% gain the previous day [1] - The S&P 500 reached a third consecutive all-time closing high, increasing by +0.03% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down -0.025%, recovering from a drop of -200 points earlier in the day, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.01% [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts anticipate a 25 basis-point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting scheduled for September 16-17 [2] - The likelihood of a September rate cut is currently at 93%, but this may change based on upcoming inflation data, including CPI, PPI, and PCE reports [3][2] Group 3: Company Performance - Applied Materials - Applied Materials reported earnings of $2.48 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus estimate of $2.34, with revenues of $7.3 billion compared to the expected $7.2 billion [4] - Despite outperforming on earnings, the company provided a weak outlook for the current quarter, leading to a -12% decline in shares during after-hours trading [4] - The revised guidance indicates a top-line expectation of $6.7 billion, down from a previous estimate of $7.3 billion, and an earnings guidance midpoint of $2.11 per share, reduced from $2.38 per share [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Reports - A range of economic reports is expected tomorrow, including Retail Sales, Imports and Exports, and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for July, as well as the August Empire State manufacturing index [6] - Following the market opening, Business Inventories for June and Consumer Sentiment for August will be released [6] Group 5: Earnings Reports Next Week - The earnings reporting schedule will pick up next week with major retailers such as Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, and The TJX Companies set to release their July quarter results [7] - Additionally, Palo Alto Networks and Estee Lauder are also expected to report earnings next week [7]

Market Trends & Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are increasingly active in the stock market, favoring individual stocks over ETFs, with mega-cap tech and AI-related stocks being popular choices [2][4][8][11][13] - Investopedia's survey indicates strong positive sentiment among self-directed investors, driven by record highs and expectations of deregulation and rate cuts [5][6][7][17][18][36] - Investors show a preference for holding onto their current stock investments, particularly in large-cap tech, with Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon being top choices for the next 10 years [9][10] - A survey reveals that if investors had an extra 10,000 (unit unspecified), 22% would invest it in individual stocks [4] Economic Indicators & Monetary Policy - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed higher than expected inflation, particularly in services, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve [1][24][25] - Despite inflation data, markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [26][27] - Crypto markets experienced a downturn with Bitcoin down 4% after hitting an all-time high, but overall, crypto has seen significant gains year-to-date, supported by institutional interest and a friendlier regulatory environment [30][31][32] Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Potential IPO - The Trump administration is considering an IPO for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could raise approximately 30 billion (unit unspecified) for taxpayers and unwind their 2008 conservatorship [3][37][38] - An IPO would introduce new shares and capital, potentially leading to a major exchange listing, but the government's backing is likely to continue unless Congress intervenes [45][46] - The value of the two mortgage giants could exceed 500 billion (unit unspecified) combined if the IPO proceeds [45] - Existing shareholders are expected to face massive dilution, with the federal government potentially owning over 90% [44][45]

Inflation Concerns - July's PPI (生产者物价指数) inflation report intensified concerns about consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The report raised questions regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) plans for interest rate cuts [1]

Joining us now is Frederick Michigan, former Federal Reserve Governor and currently an economics professor at Columbia University. Uh Frederick, great to see you. What what crossed your mind when you saw this PPI number this morning.How much of this is clearly tariffs and how much does it complicate the narrative that well the Fed of course has to cut in September and then we'll continue. So I don't put a huge amount of weight on a PPI uh particular number. It's very volatile.Uh however, even before this, I ...

Inflation Analysis - Inflation is running around 3%, approximately 1% higher than the Fed's 2% target [3][4] - Tariffs' impact on inflation is expected to fade in 2 to 3 quarters, but there's a reasonable possibility of persistence [5] - Companies closer to the importer are passing on almost everything, while those closer to the consumer are having difficulty passing through costs [29] - The impact of tariffs is being shared by exporters, importers, consumers, and intermediate goods [30] - So far, there has been a muted impact on core goods and services, with some higher services inflation [30] Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is seen as stable around full employment, with an unemployment rate at 42% [11] - There is slightly more than one vacancy for each person unemployed and looking for a job [12] - Demand for labor has declined, but so has the supply [13] - The break-even pace of employment is expected to be sub 50 thousand this year due to lower immigration flows [14] Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, requiring a balanced approach [6][7] - The speaker is weighing the fact that inflation is almost 1% above target against a labor market at full employment but with downside risks [8] - A 50 basis point cut is unsupported by the current state and outlook for the economy [33] - Central bank independence is very important for better economic outcomes [23][24]