Core Insights - The article emphasizes the expertise of the research firm Goulart's Restaurant Stocks, which focuses on the U.S. restaurant industry, covering various segments from quick-service to fine dining [1] - The firm employs advanced financial modeling and sector-specific KPIs to identify hidden value in public equities, particularly in micro and small-cap companies often overlooked by mainstream analysts [1] Industry Focus - The research covers a broad range of sectors including consumer discretionary, food & beverage, casinos & gaming, and IPOs, with a strong emphasis on the restaurant industry [1] - The firm aims to uncover investment opportunities within the restaurant sector by applying strategic insights and valuation techniques [1] Research Methodology - The analysis incorporates advanced financial modeling and sector-specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess company valuations [1] - The firm combines hands-on finance and business management experience with academic knowledge, including an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics [1]

Valuation Analysis - Vinted's potential valuation of €8 billion is considered high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Akzo Nobel N.V. and Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is viewed critically, with concerns about Axalta's decision to merge with a company that has a history of poor performance and value stagnation [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Axalta has demonstrated exceptional financial performance, maintaining adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin growth for 12 consecutive quarters [4]. - The company has a net leverage ratio of 2.5x, the lowest in its history, and plans to repurchase up to $250 million of its stock, deploying over 90% of its free cash flow to share repurchases this year [4]. - Axalta's revenue and operating income have shown fluctuations, with a notable decline in net income from €1,060 million in 2015 to €66 million in 2025 [5]. Valuation Concerns - The merger is perceived as a "sellout" of a well-performing business for a company (Akzo Nobel) that has historically underperformed, with earnings and adjusted earnings per share lower over one-, five-, and ten-year periods [2][3]. - The valuation of Akzo Nobel is questioned, as it is seen as a company with inferior assets and financial performance compared to Axalta [2][3]. Market Outlook - There is optimism regarding improved operating conditions in 2026, particularly in the Refinish demand environment in North America, as claims stabilize and destocking headwinds abate [4]. - Leading indicators for the Refinish market are starting to turn positive, suggesting a potential shift in market conditions [4].

Core Insights - Visa Inc. and American Express Company both reported strong earnings, but their growth drivers are diverging, necessitating a deeper analysis beyond headline figures to assess future momentum [1][9] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Visa reported Q4 fiscal 2025 EPS of $2.98, exceeding estimates by $0.01 and reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, driven by robust transaction processing and payment volume growth [4] - American Express delivered Q3 fiscal 2025 EPS of $4.14, surpassing estimates by 4.6% and showing a 19% year-over-year increase, supported by strong spending from its premium customer base [6] Group 2: Key Operational Drivers - Visa's payment volume increased by 9% year-over-year, with processed transactions reaching 67.7 billion, a 10% rise, and cross-border volume growing by 12% [5] - American Express's network volumes reached $479.2 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, with total interest income rising 8% to $6.6 billion [7] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Visa anticipates low double-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2026, with EPS expected to grow by 11.7% to $12.81 [8] - American Express expects revenue growth between 9% and 10% for 2025, with EPS projected in the range of $15.20 to $15.50, indicating a 15.3% increase [9][10] Group 4: Financial Flexibility - Visa ended the quarter with $17.2 billion in cash, a significant increase from $12 billion, and reduced long-term debt to $19.6 billion [11] - American Express reported $54.7 billion in cash, up from $40.6 billion, but long-term debt increased to $57.8 billion [12] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Visa returned $6.1 billion to shareholders, with $4.9 billion in buybacks and $1.2 billion in dividends, maintaining a dividend yield of 0.83% [14] - American Express repurchased 7 million shares for $2.3 billion and paid $600 million in dividends, with a dividend yield of 0.96% [14] Group 6: Valuation and Price Performance - Visa shares have declined 6.6% over the past three months, trading at 24.62X, below its five-year median of 26.66X, suggesting potential valuation upside [16][19] - American Express trades at 19.70X, above its five-year median of 17.27X, indicating differing risk perspectives [19] Group 7: Conclusion - Visa's global scale, cleaner balance sheet, and steadier growth position it for more durable upside compared to American Express, despite both companies holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [23]

Funding & Valuation - Crypto exchange Kraken 完成 8 亿（800 million）美元融资 [1] - Kraken 估值达到 200 亿（20 billion）美元 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cisco's stock has performed well, increasing by 37% over the past year, yet retail investor sentiment has turned negative, with social sentiment dropping to 35/100 despite solid fundamentals and a 2.09% dividend yield [1][6]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Mentions of Cisco on Reddit surged in mid-November, with a notable shift from neutral to negative sentiment, as discussions highlighted concerns about historical losses and potential market bubbles [2]. - A specific post on r/investing warned that Cisco's recovery from the dotcom bubble could indicate a potential bubble, resonating with many users [2]. - The decline in sentiment is attributed to profit-taking after a significant annual gain, with the current sentiment at 35/100 [4][6]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Cisco's trailing P/E ratio stands at 30, with only 6% year-over-year earnings growth, resulting in a PEG ratio of 5, indicating the stock may be overvalued relative to its growth [3][5]. - The stock's RSI has remained above 70 since November 13, suggesting overbought conditions, which has contributed to the bearish sentiment [4][5]. - Despite strong operational margins (23.6% operating, 17.9% profit) and an 11% monthly gain, concerns about valuation and timing have led investors to lock in profits rather than increase exposure [6].

Core Insights - Investing in global ex-U.S. markets through dedicated ETFs offers an efficient way to achieve international diversification for U.S.-focused portfolios [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - There are various strategies available for investing in international markets, making it challenging for investors to choose the right one [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has a Master's in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and a diverse investing background that includes corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis [1] - The focus areas of the analyst include real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets, with expertise in financial modeling, valuation, and qualitative analysis [1] - The analyst aims to share insights and analysis on interesting companies with a global audience through Seeking Alpha [1]

Valuation - Ramp 的估值达到 320 亿美元 [1] - Ramp 的估值在三个月内从 225 亿美元增长到 320 亿美元 [1] - Ramp 的估值在三个月内增长了 42% (从 225 亿美元到 320 亿美元) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is a highly divisive stock, suggesting that opinions on its valuation and future prospects vary significantly among investors [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The company is perceived to be at a point in the investment cycle where traditional valuation metrics may be less relevant [1]. - Palantir is characterized by its strong balance sheet and management team, which are critical factors for long-term growth potential [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on identifying undervalued companies with secular growth, emphasizing the importance of a robust management team and favorable industry conditions [1]. - The strategy combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation criteria to enhance the margin of safety for investors [1].

Core Insights - American Express Company (AXP) has outperformed the market with a year-to-date increase of 20.4%, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 16% rise and the broader industry decline of 6.5% [1][3] - The company's premium brand and steady earnings have allowed it to navigate macroeconomic volatility effectively, maintaining a strong reputation as a reliable investment [3][18] Performance Metrics - AXP's stock trades at a forward P/E of 20.67X, below the industry average of 24.19X, while Visa and Mastercard have higher forward P/E ratios of 25.32X and 29.12X, respectively [4] - The company reported an 11% revenue growth, with third-quarter revenues reaching $18.4 billion, and network volumes rose 9% to $479.2 billion [6][10] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - American Express operates a closed-loop system, earning revenue from both transaction fees and interest on cardholder balances, which provides flexibility in varying rate environments [8][9] - The company's affluent customer base continues to spend on discretionary categories, contributing to its stability amid economic pressures [10][11] Analyst Outlook - Analysts project a 15.1% earnings growth for 2025 and a 14.1% increase for 2026, with revenue estimates indicating expansions of 9.3% and 8.3%, respectively [12] - Recent analyst activity has shown upward revisions in estimates, with no downward changes noted in the past month [13] Financial Strength - American Express ended the third quarter with $54.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 4.9%, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.3% [14][15] - The company returned $7.9 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and buybacks, with $2.9 billion distributed in the third quarter of 2025 alone [15] Conclusion - American Express has demonstrated strong performance driven by its premium customer base, solid financial discipline, and unique business model [18] - The company's appealing valuation relative to peers and robust balance sheet position it well to navigate credit cycles while rewarding shareholders [18]