Core Insights - The discussion highlights the philosophical mindset of the investment group, emphasizing the importance of resilience and conviction in navigating the current market landscape [5][8][96] - The investment landscape has been challenging, with significant drawdowns and volatility, particularly in small-cap and micro-cap stocks [11][16][39] - The focus is on specific companies, such as Green Plains and Cineverse, detailing their performance, challenges, and potential for recovery [18][45] Group 1: Market Overview - The market has experienced a 20% drawdown in April, one of the fastest corrections in history, followed by a strong recovery [11][37] - The current market is characterized by a focus on large-cap tech stocks, leading to a disparity in performance between small caps and larger companies [14][76] - The investment group operates primarily in the micro-cap and small-cap space, which has been more volatile and challenging compared to larger stocks [14][39] Group 2: Company Analysis - Green Plains - Green Plains is a significant ethanol producer with nine plants and a capacity of 800 million gallons [18] - The company faced challenges due to high inventories and a negative EBITDA quarter, leading to a substantial stock price drop [25][26] - Despite initial setbacks, the company has potential for recovery due to favorable legislation and management's proactive strategies [34][36] Group 3: Company Analysis - Cineverse - Cineverse has a strong niche in the horror film market, with successful titles like "Terrifier 3" contributing to revenue growth [46][54] - The company has faced stock price volatility due to mixed performance in recent releases, but has upcoming films that are expected to perform well [58][61] - Cineverse's business model includes acquiring intellectual property and leveraging marketing channels, which positions it for potential growth [50][63] Group 4: Economic and Policy Context - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are seen as a cautious approach, with uncertainty about the broader economic impact [78][80] - Tariffs and their effects on small-cap companies are a concern, but the investment group does not believe their specific holdings are significantly impacted [81][84] - The discussion touches on the broader economic challenges facing younger generations, including job market difficulties and high living costs [87][88]

Company Insights - Green Plains (NASDAQ: GPRE) is a significant ethanol producer with nine plants and a capacity of 800 million gallons. The company has a carbon capture program that is expected to unlock substantial value through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) until 2027, despite facing challenges due to high inventories and a fragmented industry [18][19][21][22]. - Cineverse (NASDAQ: CNVS) has a strong business model focused on horror films, owning platforms like Bloody and Disgusting. The company experienced a significant stock price increase, reaching $7.40 in July, but faced a downturn due to mixed performance in recent film releases [12][46][47][60][72]. Market Trends - The market has shown volatility, with a notable 20% correction in April, one of the fastest in history. However, it rebounded due to tactical trading setups and depressed valuations [11][37]. - The current investment landscape is characterized by a focus on AI and significant capital expenditure (CapEx) cycles, leading to substantial revenue growth for companies directly involved in this sector [13][14]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasizes identifying mispriced opportunities in small and micro-cap stocks, particularly those with market caps under $500 million. This strategy involves thorough research and engagement with management teams to understand the business dynamics [14][41][73]. - The importance of resilience and conviction in investment decisions is highlighted, especially in the context of market fluctuations and the need for a long-term perspective [74][96].

Inflation is still above the Fed's goal of 2% each year. Frederic J. Brown / AFP via Getty Images Close Key Takeaways Today's inflation trends are either something to worry about or no big deal, depending on which Federal Reserve official you ask.On Monday, at least four members of the central bank's policy committee discussed whether the Fed should cut its key interest rate further in the months ahead. This is the first time some have spoken publicly since the central bank's policy-setting committee decide ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a new appointee to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-setting board, advocates for more aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting rates should be below 3% by year-end [2][6]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by a quarter point, bringing them to a range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest since early 2023. Miran was the only voting member to oppose this decision, advocating for a half-point cut instead [1]. Economic Analysis - Miran believes that concerns over inflation due to tariffs are overstated, arguing that small price changes in certain goods do not warrant significant worry. He predicts that exporters will lower prices, and he expects a cooling in the housing market due to a declining population influenced by immigration policies [2][4]. - In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that higher tariffs have begun to increase prices in some categories, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation remains uncertain [3]. Inflation Targeting - The Federal Reserve has maintained a target inflation rate of 2%, which has not been achieved since 2021. Miran views this target as overly restrictive and believes that precise inflation targets can lead to excessive micromanagement [5][6]. Role and Influence - Miran is positioned as an economic advocate for Trump within the Fed, being the first governor to serve on the board while also holding a role in the executive branch in nearly a century. He is currently on leave from his role as chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers [6]. - Miran emphasizes his independence in decision-making, stating that he will not conform to consensus for its own sake and will vote according to his beliefs [8].

Core Viewpoint - Vanguard is optimistic about corporate bonds despite high valuations, anticipating that potential risks from tariffs could be mitigated by further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Corporate Bonds and Credit Spreads - Investment-grade credit spreads have decreased to 74 basis points, the lowest since 1998, as investors seek higher yields compared to U.S. Treasuries [2]. - Vanguard's global head of fixed income stated that while credit valuations are stretched, they are justified due to healthy fundamentals, attractive yields, strong investor demand, and low recession risk [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Tariffs - Vanguard estimates that one-third of the impact from President Trump's tariffs has already affected the economy, with half expected by year-end and the remainder by 2026 [4]. - The slow implementation of tariffs has allowed the economy to adjust, although risks to growth and inflation remain [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, with expectations of further cuts potentially bringing rates to around 3% by the end of 2026 [5]. - The firm believes that additional rate adjustments and Trump's policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, will likely counterbalance the negative effects of tariffs on U.S. growth [5]. - However, there is a caution that the Fed may not cut rates as much as the market anticipates unless a recession occurs [6].

President Donald Trump’s former economic adviser said tariffs are raising the cost of doing business—and it may just be making your job search harder. Gary Cohn, who served as director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, said businesses are feeling the insecurity of rising input costs thanks to tariffs. And because companies feel they can’t raise prices for consumers, they turn to what they can control. “The one lever they can pull to make sure they keep their margins ...

Core Insights - Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, indicating ongoing tariff impacts on profitability despite solid consumer demand for the brand [1][10] - Order cancellations and shipment delays, particularly in mass and off-price channels, negatively affected performance, pushing deliveries into later periods and creating pressure on earnings [1][5] Financial Performance - Gross margin remained at 41.9%, an increase of 40 basis points year over year, but tariffs reduced profitability by approximately 230 basis points after supplier discounts [2][10] - Wholesale gross margin decreased to 31% from 33.1%, while direct-to-consumer margin fell to 61.3% from 64.3%, influenced by higher landed costs and the lower-margin Kurt Geiger concessions business [2][10] - Operating income dropped to 4% of revenues compared to over 10% a year ago, leading to adjusted quarterly earnings declining 64.9% from $0.57 to $0.20 per share [2][10] Supply Chain Management - To address supply-chain pressures, the company diversified production to countries like Vietnam and Cambodia while shifting some orders back to China to ensure timely delivery and maintain quality [3][10] - Global trade uncertainty continues to inflate inventory costs and lengthen transit times, making sourcing diversification an ongoing process [3] Pricing Strategy - The company implemented average price increases of about 10% to counter rising costs, with early consumer acceptance being encouraging in categories like boots and dress shoes [4] - Price-sensitive items, such as sandals and sneakers, remain under pressure, and the full impact of pricing strategies is expected to be clearer in the fall season [4] Future Outlook - Management anticipates margin pressure to persist through the fiscal third quarter, with potential easing later in the year if trade conditions stabilize [5] - Until the tariff environment becomes clearer, EBIT margins are unlikely to return to historical double-digit levels, but the company remains confident in brand strength and consumer demand for new assortments [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Shares of the company have gained 13.6% in the past six months, outperforming the industry's 5.5% growth [8] - From a valuation perspective, Steven Madden is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 0.87X, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.96X [9]

Most of America’s trading partners have declined to fight tariffs with tariffs of their own. They have judged that tit-for-tat responses would lead to escalation and self-harm https://t.co/mMCEEuNefV ...

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Monday after a positive performance on Friday, with major indices showing lower futures [1] - The Dow Jones index closed 173 points or 0.37% higher at 46,315.27, while the S&P 500 rose 0.49% to 6,664.36 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.72% to 22,631.48 [6][7] - The S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week, with the Dow adding 1% and the Nasdaq surging 2.2% [4] Group 2: Key Company Movements - Apple Inc. saw a 3.2% increase in shares due to strong demand for the new iPhone 17, with preorders in China surpassing those of the iPhone 16 within one minute [5] - Fox Corp. rose 4.20% as President Trump considered Lachlan Murdoch as an investor in the proposed deal to transfer TikTok's U.S. operations to American ownership [16] - Oracle Corp. and Dell Technologies also experienced stock increases of 0.72% and 1.11%, respectively, as Larry Ellison and Michael Dell are involved in the TikTok transfer deal [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.12%, while the two-year bond was at 3.57%, with a 91.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming October meeting [3] - The Baker Hughes oil rig count increased by 2 to 418 in the latest week, indicating a slight uptick in oil production activity [5] Group 4: Analyst Insights - Economist Justin Wolfers highlighted a significant policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's trade actions, noting the conflicting signals of rising inflation and slowing economic growth [9] - Wolfers suggested that the Fed's monetary policy is limited in addressing structural issues caused by trade policy, advocating for the removal of tariffs as a solution [10]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Monday after a positive performance on Friday, with major indices showing lower futures [1] - The Dow Jones index closed 173 points or 0.37% higher at 46,315.27, while the S&P 500 rose 0.49% to 6,664.36 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.72% to 22,631.48 [6][7] - The S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week, the Dow added 1%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.2% [4] Key Corporate Developments - President Trump announced that Lachlan Murdoch, Larry Ellison, and Michael Dell will invest in a deal to transfer TikTok's U.S. operations from ByteDance to American ownership [1][2] - Fox Corp. rose 4.20% as Trump considered Murdoch's involvement in the TikTok deal [16] - Oracle Corp. and Dell Technologies also saw stock increases of 0.72% and 1.11% respectively due to their executives' participation in the TikTok transfer [16] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.12%, while the two-year bond was at 3.57% [3] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 91.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in its October meeting [3] Sector Performance - Information technology, utilities, and communication services stocks recorded the biggest gains on Friday, while energy and real estate stocks closed lower [4] - Apple Inc. saw a 3.2% increase in stock price due to strong demand for the new iPhone 17, with preorders in China surpassing those of the iPhone 16 in just one minute [5] Housing Market Insights - The latest New Residential Construction report indicated a 3.7% decline in building permits, marking the lowest level since May 2020, and an 8.5% drop in housing starts [10] - This downturn in housing data has prompted discussions about the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the need for a more substantial decline in mortgage rates to stimulate the housing market [11]