Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.0% and 3.1% for this year and next, respectively, an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from April's forecast [1] - Trade dynamics continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations supporting global economic resilience, although overall tariff levels remain historically high and the policy environment is highly uncertain [1] China Economic Growth - The IMF significantly raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to April's predictions [1] Developed and Emerging Markets - Developed economies are expected to achieve a growth rate of 1.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, with the U.S. economy projected to grow by 1.9% [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from earlier projections [1]

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on June 5 aimed to recalibrate the direction of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation to resolve economic issues [10][11][12] - Premier Li Qiang's conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Carney on June 6 highlighted the desire to improve China-Canada relations, focusing on mutual opportunities rather than threats [12][13] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, a downward revision from previous forecasts due to increased trade barriers and economic policy uncertainties [15][22] - The report indicates that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with inflation rates projected to be 3.2% and 2.8% for the same years [15][21] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - Following the easing of trade tensions due to the US-China dialogue, major A-share indices rebounded, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively [24] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 13.681 billion yuan during the week, indicating positive market sentiment [24] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan since June has contributed to a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate remaining below 1.6% [46] - The ten-year government bond yield was recorded at 1.66% as of June 6, reflecting stable interest rates in the fixed income market [46] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and crude oil prices continuing to rise, while pork prices experienced a decline [4] - The IEA has predicted a decline in global oil demand, which may impact related sectors [4] Group 6: Financial Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Central Huijin's control over eight companies, enhancing its influence in the financial sector [25] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting focused on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, indicating a push for improved corporate governance [26][27]

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Fed can remain patient and is ready to respond when necessary [2] - US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in May, with trade-related data highlighting the impact of tariffs [2] - OECD lowered the US GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.5%, expecting no changes in Fed interest rates this year [2] Group 2: Non-USD Major Currencies - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes indicated that the committee does not see the need for a 50 basis point rate cut, noting that US tariffs have not yet impacted the Australian economy [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated there are currently no preset plans for interest rate hikes, which will only be considered if the economy and prices rise again; a bond reduction plan will be reviewed in the next meeting [3] - Japan's Ministry of Finance issued approximately 2.6 trillion yen in 10-year government bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of about 3.66, the highest in nearly a year, leading to a rise in medium to long-term bond prices [3] Group 3: Other Economic Indicators - The OECD projected global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the March forecast [4]

Core Insights - The short-term effects of tariffs may be anti-inflationary [1] - The Eurozone benefits from a flow of safe-haven funds [1] - Tariffs could lead to a persistent reduction in global economic growth [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The market digests the news of tariff mitigation and domestic policy benefits, which will drive some bargain - hunting in the market. However, the new US tariffs are in contradiction, economic data is mixed, and global demand concerns remain. With stable supply, a tail - end of the consumption peak season but still resilient demand, and the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias, testing the pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2385 yuan/ton on April 17, 2025, to 2459.5 yuan/ton on April 24, 2025, an increase of 74.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 19565 dollars/ton to 19815 dollars/ton, an increase of 250 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 439325 tons to 423575 tons. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 95909 tons to 76763 tons. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 68.9 tons to 65.8 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3.14 tons [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the market digests tariff mitigation and policy benefits, but there are still concerns. Fundamentally, supply is stable, consumption is in the tail - end of the peak season with some resilience. During the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias [7] 3.4 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on carbon emission trading market work, requiring tasks and time limits for key emission units in industries such as aluminum smelting. The US President will exempt some tariffs on automobile manufacturers, steel, and aluminum, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese tariffs may drop to 50% - 65%. From January to March 2025, the national new photovoltaic installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.5% [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which can be used for further analysis of the aluminum market [9][10][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show no significant improvement, and oil prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the market has gradually digested existing negative factors. In the long - term, whether Trump's tariff policy will lead to a substantial recession in the US economy may be the key variable determining the long - term trend [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil**: After the third round of US - Iran negotiations, the Iranian foreign minister said there were serious differences, while US officials claimed the meeting was "positive and productive". On April 25, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.14% to 496.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 492.6 yuan/barrel at night. Overseas, WTI rose 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.17 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.18 dollars/barrel to 65.83 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 25, FU was reported at 3028 yuan/ton, LU at 3477 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 217.5 cents/gallon. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged by the cost side and can't have an independent market. The high - sulfur variety's strong support pattern hasn't changed, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety shows no significant pressure for now [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose on April 25 compared to April 24. Among spot prices, OPEC - basket decreased by 2.04%, while some others like Brent increased. The spreads such as SC - Brent and SC - WTI also changed. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory increased by 0.06% from April 11 to April 18, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 2.09% [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all rose on April 25 compared to April 24. Some spot prices like IFO380 in Rotterdam increased, while others remained unchanged. The spreads such as Singapore high - low sulfur spread increased. Singapore's inventory increased by 5.41% from April 11 to April 18 [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Internal Price**: On April 25, the SC main contract rose 1.14% to 496.1 yuan/barrel and closed at 492.6 yuan/barrel at night. The spot price of Shengli crude oil increased by 0.41 to 63.21 dollars/barrel [9]. - **External Price**: On April 25, WTI rose 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.17 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.18 dollars/barrel to 65.83 dollars/barrel. Spot prices of Dubai and Oman decreased by 0.22%, while Brent increased by 0.42% [10]. - **Macro - environment**: Trump's tariff policy is shifting from "full - scale pressure" to "selective relaxation". The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025. The US - Iran negotiation had no substantial progress, and the US - Russia conflict may intensify [3][11][12]. - **Supply**: Kazakhstan's oil production exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 26% in April, triggering a trust crisis in OPEC+ production cuts. Some OPEC+ members plan to increase production in June. Russia's new well - drilling speed is at a five - year high [14][15]. - **Demand**: Pakistan's domestic oil reserves increased by 23% in 2024, but it still depends on imports. Global oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be the slowest in five years, with an increase of 730,000 barrels/day, 300,000 barrels/day lower than last month's forecast [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of April 18, US EIA commercial crude inventory increased by 244,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.476 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 2.353 million barrels. API data showed a large decrease in US crude inventory last week [17]. - **Market Information**: The US Secretary of State said the US won't expand sanctions on Russia, while Trump mentioned possible financial sanctions. The Qatar - Gaza talks made some progress, and Hamas is willing to release hostages and seek a 5 - year cease - fire. Putin's press secretary said Trump's views on the Ukraine conflict are basically in line with Russia's [18]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts including WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, showing the historical trends and current situations of the oil and fuel oil industries [19][22][24].