Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting the certain expectation of short - term liquidity easing. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamental and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy directions and external disturbances will dominate the trend [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-0.02%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1710, with a day - on - day increase of 0.000 (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.21%); DR007 is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.17%); R007 is 1.64, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 (-6.66%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.64%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.64%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant data charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of treasury bonds of various terms in the recent day, the precipitation fund trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][17][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Relevant data charts include the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local bonds [28][32][37]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant data charts include the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][43][44]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [46][49][57]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [56][59]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [63][66]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [71][74][77].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff increase disrupts global trade patterns, raising costs and uncertainty, negatively impacting Australian businesses, but also creating opportunities in certain sectors, particularly agriculture [1][4][6] - The Australia-China relationship is gradually recovering, with most tariffs lifted and high-level visits resumed, indicating a rebuilding of trust and resilience in business [2][7] - The Australia-China Free Trade Agreement, effective since 2015, has significantly boosted bilateral trade, with trade volume expected to grow from approximately $145 billion in 2015 to $325 billion by 2025, a nearly 125% increase [3] Group 2 - The removal of trade restrictions on Australian products like wine and barley has instilled confidence in related industries, with signs of recovery in sectors such as agriculture [4][5] - Australian companies are increasingly seeking investment opportunities in China, particularly in agriculture, clean energy, and food and beverage sectors, shifting from traditional export models to joint development and market building [5][8] - The report indicates that over 75% of foreign enterprises in China reported profitability, with 51% experiencing revenue growth, and 46% increasing investments, reflecting a positive outlook for Australian businesses in China [2][11] Group 3 - The Australian agricultural sector is optimistic about exporting to China, driven by the growing middle class and demand for high-quality products, despite challenges such as fluctuating commodity prices [6][8] - The potential for collaboration in clean energy, biopharmaceuticals, and medical devices is significant, aligning with both countries' strategic priorities and consumer health demands [8][9] - The "Future Australia Manufacturing" initiative aims to attract Chinese investment to develop renewable energy supply chains and create jobs in new economic sectors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant decline in U.S. consumer inflation expectations, indicating improved consumer confidence and potential implications for monetary policy and trade relations [2][4]. Summary by Sections Inflation Expectations - In May, U.S. consumers' inflation expectations for the next year, three years, and five years all decreased for the first time in 2024. The one-year inflation expectation dropped from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, while the three-year expectation fell from 3.2% to 3.0%. The five-year expectation decreased from 2.7% to 2.6% [2][4]. Consumer Sentiment - The survey indicates a broad improvement in consumer sentiment regarding future price pressures, with most categories showing a decline in inflation expectations. However, food prices are an exception, with expectations for a 5.5% increase over the next year, the highest level since October 2023 [4][5]. Employment and Personal Finance - There was a slight improvement in perceptions of employment prospects, with expectations for job loss probabilities decreasing by 0.5 percentage points. The proportion of respondents expecting their financial situation to worsen in a year also declined [6]. Stock Market Outlook - Respondents expressed a higher average probability of U.S. stock market gains over the next 12 months, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the equity market [7]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Analysts suggest that the New York Fed's survey results provide positive signals for the White House, alleviating concerns about tariffs leading to inflation. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting, with a 99.9% probability of no change in June [9][10]. Employment Market Trends - The unemployment rate has shown a slight increase from January to May, with job vacancy rates returning to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a continued softening in the employment market [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated with increased trading volume, a premium on the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the processing fee for copper concentrates remained low, with a tight supply of international concentrates. In China, the port inventory of copper concentrates decreased, and smelters' demand for concentrates increased. Regarding supply, although the domestic port inventory decreased, it remained at a sufficient level. With the easing of relations with the US, scrap copper imports were expected to supplement, and smelters' raw materials were temporarily sufficient, with their production willingness improving. In terms of imports and exports, the domestic import window opened, and with the increase in the shipment volume of copper ores and copper from Chile to China, the overall domestic supply was expected to show a slight increase after arrival. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of consumption, the overall downstream production declined to varying degrees. The relatively high domestic copper price might dampen downstream purchasing sentiment, weakening the trading sentiment in the spot market and slightly increasing domestic inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper might be in a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.93, a decrease of 0.0053 from the previous period, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, both lines were above the 0 - axis, the DIF crossed below the DEA, and the green bars expanded. The operation suggestion was to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 78,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,750 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 US dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The position volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 208,685 lots, an increase of 6,379 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was 451 lots, an increase of 3,857 lots. The LME copper inventory was 122,400 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 107,404 tons, an increase of 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 71,725 tons, an increase of 3,925 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 33,746 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot price was 79,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 395 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was 95.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25.94 US dollars. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 292.44 million tons, an increase of 53.13 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.29 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.27 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,150 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,850 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 4. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 208.10 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 140.816 billion yuan, an increase of 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 2,772.957 billion yuan, an increase of 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167 million pieces, a decrease of 30,199.90 pieces. [2] 6. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.40%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 12.86%, an increase of 0.0028 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.93, a decrease of 0.0053. [2] 7. Industry News - New York Fed survey data showed that in May, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2%. The three - year and five - year inflation expectations also decreased. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month, and 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Customs data showed that in the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value. The growth rates of sub - sectors such as electric vehicles and industrial robots were significant, at 19% and 55.4% respectively. The contribution rate of the equipment manufacturing industry to the overall export growth was 73%, reaching 76.9% in May. Passenger Car Association data showed that in May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.96 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales were 8.934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 1.021 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.2% and a month - on - month increase of 12.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales were 4.351 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.1%. The China Index Academy stated that currently, land - acquiring enterprises were still mainly state - owned enterprises, continuing the trend since 2022. From the sales side, real - estate enterprises' sales were still in a downward trend, and the pressure on the sales side might continue to be transmitted to the investment side. Therefore, the substantial improvement of private real - estate enterprises' confidence required the recovery of sales. [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflation expectations in the U.S. have decreased for the first time in 2024, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, indicating a significant shift in consumer sentiment [1][3] - The decline in inflation expectations is widespread across different demographics, with consumers feeling less pressure from rising prices, although food prices remain a concern with a projected increase of 5.5% [3][4] - The optimism in consumer sentiment is attributed to a temporary easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which has positively influenced public perception regarding future price increases [1][6] Group 2 - Employment market expectations have improved slightly, with a decrease in unemployment fears and an increase in the willingness to voluntarily leave jobs, indicating greater confidence among workers [6][8] - Personal financial outlooks have also become more positive, with an increase in the proportion of individuals able to meet minimum repayment obligations, suggesting a reduction in financial anxiety [6][8] - Recent official data supports the positive sentiment, with the PCE inflation index at 2.1%, the lowest since February 2021, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may choose to maintain current interest rates in the upcoming meeting [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing mixed performance, with concerns about the sustainability of the recent rebound amid ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On May 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 89.37 points, a decrease of 0.21%, closing at 42,051.06 points. The Nasdaq rose by 136.73 points, an increase of 0.72%, closing at 19,146.81 points, while the S&P 500 gained 6.03 points, up 0.10%, closing at 5,892.58 points [4]. - The Nasdaq has surged over 6% this week, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1% and the S&P 500 rising over 4%, marking a return to positive year-to-date performance [5]. Trade and Economic Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the potential for further gains in the U.S. stock market due to ongoing trade negotiations and economic uncertainties [5][6]. - President Trump mentioned ongoing potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, while the Federal Reserve has indicated rising economic uncertainty and is monitoring the impact of tariffs before deciding on future interest rate cuts [6]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, eight out of eleven sectors declined, with the healthcare and materials sectors leading the losses at 2.31% and 0.96%, respectively. Conversely, the communication services and technology sectors saw gains of 1.58% and 0.96% [8]. - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with notable increases for AMD (over 15%), NVIDIA (up 4.16%), and Tesla (over 4%) [8]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by over 1%, with Tencent Music experiencing a significant increase of over 15% [2][10]. - Tencent Music's revenue for Q1 2025 was reported at 7.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with adjusted net profit rising by 22.8% to 2.23 billion yuan [11]. - Tencent's overall revenue for the same period was 180.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, with gross profit increasing by 20% [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting at high prices, tin is recommended for trading within a range, gold is recommended for building positions at low prices after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended for observation; and the outlook for soda ash is weakly fluctuating [1][20][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound with fluctuations, apples are expected to fluctuate, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs are expected to show a weak trend, corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][33][38]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures products based on factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, domestic policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit situations. It believes that Sino - US trade negotiations have a significant impact on the market, with short - term tariff easing exceeding expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. Different products have different trends due to their own supply - demand and cost characteristics, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [5][20]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Sino - US trade situation improvement boosts the strong rebound of US stocks. The negotiation process exceeds expectations, and the index futures may fluctuate strongly. However, there are risks of callback after reaching the previous high [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade negotiations may reduce the pressure of export decline. The potential downward space of bond yields is limited, but there are still phased opportunities. Short - term attention should be paid to the fermentation of reverse trading [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price rebounds, and the market expectation improves due to Sino - US negotiations. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of deterioration, and the price is expected to fluctuate under the background of low valuation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply shows a slight decline, and the demand has limited upward space. Considering the approaching traditional off - season and other factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the coke market has no prominent short - term supply - demand contradictions, but there are adjustment pressures. Both are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation eases, but the impact of the trade war on demand may gradually appear. The fundamentals support the price, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite increases, and the demand has a weakening expectation. It is recommended for observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an excess pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: Sino - US trade negotiations reduce market risk aversion, but the tariff policy is expected to be repeated. Both are expected to fluctuate [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply has new investment plans. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to tariff progress [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient in the medium term, with limited demand growth [22]. - **Rubber**: The macro - good news boosts the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The decline is expected to slow down [26][27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The short - term news has a certain boost, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [28]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [30]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation [30]. - **PTA**: The cost collapses, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the support at 4200 [32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply increases and is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [33][34]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may be supported, but the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [34]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak. The long - term cost increases, and the price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different periods [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The long - term trend is expected to decline first and then rebound [38][43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for stock index: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [2] - Investment rating for treasury bonds: Bullish in the short term [3] Group 2: Core Views - For stock index: The easing of Sino-US trade tensions has boosted a strong rebound in US stocks. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year, and Goldman Sachs has postponed its Fed rate cut expectation from July to December. The Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement was released, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that China and the US have cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The Sino - US negotiation process has exceeded expectations, and the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward bias. However, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the level before the implementation of tariffs, and there is still pressure from additional tariffs in the current fundamentals, as well as the expected disturbance of Trump's changing attitude. When the market sentiment is high, attention should be paid to the possible callback risk after reaching the previous high [1] - For treasury bonds: Considering the relatively high density and intensity of recent domestic policy introductions, the market's expectations for the number and cumulative amplitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will also decline to some extent, and the potential downward space for bond yields is relatively limited. The low - odds situation in the bond market will not improve significantly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the development of reverse trading and patiently wait for the market to gradually stabilize from the high - volatility environment [2] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.23%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.77%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.48%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.56% [4] - Treasury bonds: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.46%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.20%, the 30 - year main contract fell 1.31%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.08% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward bias [5] - Treasury bonds: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight downward bias [7] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3853.00 | 1.23 | 61843 | 152926 | | 2025/05/12 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2686.60 | 0.77 | 31684 | 50672 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5688.00 | 1.48 | 52449 | 101404 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6037.00 | 1.56 | 134023 | 170704 | | 2025/05/12 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.46 | 110974 | 160433 | | 2025/05/12 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.89 | - 0.20 | 77590 | 129518 | | 2025/05/12 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.74 | - 1.31 | 122849 | 71751 | | 2025/05/12 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.28 | - 0.08 | 48586 | 74392 | [9]

Group 1 - David Perdue was sworn in as the U.S. Ambassador to China amid tense U.S.-China trade relations, drawing attention from foreign media [1] - President Trump emphasized Perdue's capability to handle one of the most complex diplomatic relationships and expressed confidence in his performance [1] - Perdue has 40 years of international business experience and has lived and worked in Singapore and Hong Kong, making him familiar with the Asian business ecosystem [1] Group 2 - Some foreign media speculate on Perdue's appointment, noting his previous advocacy for a stronger U.S. Navy to counter China's military presence in the Pacific [2] - CNBC reported that Wall Street and the general public are eager for upcoming U.S.-China negotiations to ease trade tensions [2] - Perdue's lack of diplomatic experience may influence his future work, which could depend on his close relationship with Trump and his ability to navigate U.S.-China relations [2]