Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing localized activity, with significant gains in concepts such as large aircraft and military information technology [1] - The defense military ETF (512810) reached an 8-month high, with real-time transactions exceeding 47 million yuan [1] - Key stocks within the defense military ETF, including Changcheng Military Industry, have hit historical highs [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the defense and military sector is currently in a layout window, with expectations for improved Q2 financial reports [3] - Q1 order volume has increased, leading to potential performance improvements for mid-to-upstream companies in Q2, with a turnaround in military component orders observed in June [3] - Anticipation of a busy Q3 with catalysts as the September 3 military parade approaches, likely increasing attention and trading activity in the sector [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) covers a range of themes including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI [4] - The ETF has undergone a share split in June, reducing the investment threshold by half, making it more accessible for investors [4] - The ETF is a financing and margin trading target, as well as an interconnectivity target [4]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry continues to rise, with the popular defense military ETF (512810) reaching a new high since November 13, 2024, and showing a daily increase of 0.9% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) recorded a trading volume of 86.68 million yuan, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - Notable stocks in the defense sector include: - Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (600967) with a price increase of 7.76% and a market cap of 35.242 billion yuan [2] - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company (600760) decreased by 0.99% with a market cap of 184.3 billion yuan [2] - China Shipbuilding Industry Company (600150) increased by 2.08% with a market cap of 155.6 billion yuan [2] - Philihua (300395) surged by 10.79% to reach a historical high [4] Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the defense military sector, suggesting continued over-allocation due to expected performance realization in the second half of the year [2][3] - The industry is anticipated to enter a performance realization phase, with 23 out of 29 component stocks expected to report profits, and 11 stocks projected to double their net profits [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to gradually fulfill orders, with a combination of backlog and new demand driving growth [3] - New sectors such as low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace are projected to experience rapid development, significantly increasing the market ceiling for the defense industry [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) covers a range of sectors including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI, making it a diversified investment option [5] - The ETF has recently undergone a share split, reducing the investment threshold to below 70 yuan, allowing easier access to core defense military assets [5]

Market Overview - On July 18, the A-share market experienced an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.34%. Market sentiment improved, leading to a trading volume of 1.59 trillion yuan [1]. Defense and Military Industry Performance - The defense and military sector continued to show strong performance, with the popular defense and military ETF (512810) rising by 1.06%, marking its highest closing price since November 14, 2024. The ETF recorded a trading volume of 92.06 million yuan for the day [1]. - For the week of July 14-18, the defense and military ETF (512810) accumulated a gain of 2.45%, achieving a four-week consecutive increase, with a total weekly trading volume of 404 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous week [2]. Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance - As of July, the defense and military sector was primarily in a phase of adjustment, influenced by mid-year earnings expectations. However, from July 17 onwards, the sector began to rebound as several companies released positive earnings forecasts, indicating a recovery in the sector's fundamentals [3]. - Among the 29 component stocks of the defense and military ETF that have released mid-year earnings forecasts, 23 are expected to report profits. Notably, 11 companies are projected to see their net profits double, with Aerospace Science and Technology showing a growth rate exceeding 23 times [3]. Notable Stock Movements - The defense and military ETF's component stocks saw 59 stocks rise and 21 decline, with several stocks reaching historical or recent highs. Notable performers included AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company, which rose by 2.92%, and Yingliu Co., which surged by 3.44% [4]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the defense and military sector appears promising, with multiple catalysts expected to drive growth. Short-term improvements in Q2 earnings are anticipated due to increased orders and a stabilization in military component orders. The sector is expected to gain further attention as the September 3 military parade approaches, potentially leading to structural investment opportunities [6]. - Long-term prospects are bolstered by geopolitical factors, such as the India-Pakistan conflict, which may enhance China's defense industry's profile and stimulate military trade. The upcoming centenary of the military in 2027 is also expected to sustain high demand for military equipment [6]. Investment Strategy - The defense and military ETF (512810) is highlighted as a strategic investment option, offering exposure to both traditional and emerging military capabilities. It includes a diverse range of sectors such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI. The ETF is considered a low-risk investment vehicle with a lower entry threshold compared to individual stocks [7].

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing active trading, with the China Securities Military Industry Index showing positive performance, and specific stocks like Construction Industry and Yingliu Co. hitting their daily limit up [1] - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) has seen an increase of 0.76% in its market price, with a trading volume exceeding 55 million yuan [2] - According to Shenwan Securities, the defense and military industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand from military modernization and an expanding global military trade due to geopolitical changes, which is expected to enhance industry valuation [4] Group 2 - The defense and military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool that covers various sectors including commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft, making it suitable for investors looking to engage in the defense sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant profit growth forecasts for major Chinese shipbuilding companies, China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, with expected net profit increases of 98%-119% and 182%-238% respectively for the first half of the year [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved the share swap merger plan between China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, which is expected to create the largest and most comprehensive listed shipbuilding giant globally, positioning it as a key player in China's entry into the high-end equipment market [1] - The defense and military industry sector is showing positive performance, with the Defense and Military ETF (512810) experiencing significant capital inflows, having attracted over 100 million yuan in the last 10 trading days [3] Group 2 - Analysts from Guolian Minsheng Securities believe that the defense and military sector will remain a favorable investment option amid the current trend of global multipolarity, with the industry poised to experience three pivotal turning points: the "14th Five-Year Plan," "domestic demand acceleration," and "foreign trade orders from 0 to 1" [3] - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) has undergone a share split to lower the trading threshold, reducing the price from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [3] - The ETF covers a wide range of themes, including traditional military forces and emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft [3]

Summary of Military Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The military industry is experiencing significant investment opportunities due to global geopolitical tensions and an arms race, particularly highlighted by China's military equipment performance in the India-Pakistan air conflict, which has increased international recognition of Chinese military products [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is expected to benefit from increased order delivery tolerance from institutions, driven by geopolitical tensions and high-end equipment exports [1][2]. - **Market Events**: The upcoming 93rd anniversary military parade is anticipated to boost market activity, alongside the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the initiation of the 15th plan, which may lead to expedited orders [3][5]. - **Performance Metrics**: In the first half of 2025, the defense industry index outperformed the broader market, driven by a reversal in industry sentiment and concentrated order issuance [1][10]. - **Valuation Trends**: The military industry's valuation has risen to the 75th percentile, indicating potential for further growth, shifting from EPS-driven to PE-driven factors due to increased global asset allocation demand [8][21]. - **Contract Liabilities**: A 12.7% increase in contract liabilities in Q1 2025 suggests a pre-order phenomenon, indicating future performance improvements [11][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Geopolitical Context**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are expected to sustain demand for military equipment, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing their defense budgets [19][16]. - **Technological Advancements**: The military sector is focusing on new combat capabilities, including unmanned systems and high-speed weapons, which are crucial for future military strategies [7][29]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key investment areas include military trade exports, military electronics, and ammunition, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [5][30][31]. Future Outlook - The military industry is poised for continued growth, driven by strategic security asset allocation and the global expansion of Chinese military assets, particularly in the arms trade [21][22]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to clarify future directions for the military sector, enhancing market confidence and potentially leading to increased order flows [15][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the military industry conference call, highlighting the current landscape, investment opportunities, and future trends.

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry experienced a strong rebound on June 23, 2025, with the sector closing as the second highest in gains among all industries, only behind the computer sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) saw a daily increase of 1.5%, closing at 0.608 yuan, with a trading volume of 54.1 million yuan and a turnover rate of 8.73%, leading among six similar ETFs [1][2]. - The trading threshold for the defense military ETF was significantly reduced from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan due to a recent share split, enhancing trading accessibility [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Dynamics - A total of 73 out of 80 leading stocks covered by the defense military ETF rose in value, with notable performances from Changcheng Military Industry, Aerospace Development, and others [2][4]. - Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. airstrikes in Iran and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, are expected to reignite a new arms race, positively impacting the defense sector [4][5]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted advanced military aircraft, which are anticipated to bolster China's military trade on a global scale [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) passively tracks the CSI Military Index, covering various sectors such as military AI, commercial aerospace, and traditional military equipment [5]. - The ETF is currently a target for margin trading and is accessible for northbound capital, indicating strong investment interest [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in military technology and the emphasis on "new quality combat power" are expected to drive growth in the defense industry, with a focus on advanced weaponry and intelligent systems [3][4]. Group 1: Events - On May 11, the People's Daily highlighted the rapid development of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, emphasizing the importance of high-tech weapons in modern warfare [3]. - The article discusses the need to study the characteristics of modern warfare and accelerate the development of new quality combat power as a pressing issue for building a first-class military [3]. Group 2: Institutional Interpretations - New quality combat power can be categorized into two main directions: new quality combat power and new quality productivity, with the former including advanced aircraft, drones, and long-range rockets that may change future battlefield operations [4]. - The government work report by Premier Li Qiang on March 5, 2025, emphasized the need to advance military training and the development of "new quality combat power," marking a new phase in the demand and application of new technologies and equipment [4]. - The military industry theme is expected to continue, with new quality combat power becoming a new growth engine, as military construction gradually enters an era of intelligence and automation [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The new quality combat power is anticipated to open up investment opportunities in the military sector, with a focus on precision-guided weapons expected to see initial growth by 2025 [5]. - Attention is drawn to the production capacity of underwater systems and the accelerated iteration of AI and robotics, which are seen as core to new quality combat power [5]. - The traditional aircraft industry chain is highlighted as having long-term investment value [5].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com 国防军工 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 04 月 27 日 季报利空逐渐出尽，订单有望持续 兑现 看好 —— 国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 18 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 0.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 0.38%，同期上证综指上 涨 0.56%，沪深 300 上涨 0.38%，创业板指上涨 1.74%，申万国防军工指数跑输创 业板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 0.15%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 22 位。2、从我们构 建的 ...