Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated July 9, 2025, focusing on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, with persistent supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs in the wet season, while downstream demand is insufficient. Short - term inventory has decreased, but remains at a historical high. The industry faces significant adjustment pressure. Recommended strategies are SI2509 - SI2512 positive spread arbitrage and long SI2508 - short PS2511 [4] Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is influenced by both fundamental and "anti - involution" logics. Fundamentally, lower raw material prices and expected lower electricity costs may boost production capacity, but demand growth is limited after the H1 PV installation rush. High inventory persists. If effective industry integration occurs, it could reverse the current situation. The recommended strategy is PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread arbitrage [10] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous period; trading volume is 1153446 lots, down 32.44%; open interest is 399029 lots, up 3.08%. SI09 - 11 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 22.22%; SI11 - 12 spread is - 310 yuan/ton, up 4.62% [14][16] Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remain stable. The basis of East China 553 is 535 yuan/ton, down 24.11%; the basis of East China 421 is 835 yuan/ton, down 16.92%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [18] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipts are 50792 lots, down 285 lots (1.27%). Warehouse receipts in some regional delivery warehouses have changed slightly [25] Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 39270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%; trading volume is 794464 lots, up 25.24%; open interest is 97187 lots, down 12.09%. PS08 - 09 spread is 400 yuan/ton, up 63.27%; PS08 - 11 spread is 810 yuan/ton, up 70.53%; PS09 - 11 spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 78.26%; PS11 - 12 spread is - 2135 yuan/ton, up 15.61% [28][30] Spot Data - Spot prices of some polysilicon products are stable, while N - type polysilicon price index and some other products have increased slightly. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 40 yuan/kg, up 3.36% [35] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 730 yuan/ton, up 131.75%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment. Also, buy out - of - the - money put options [2] Procurement Management - When there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, with continuous supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs during the wet season, while downstream demand is weak. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the industry still faces significant adjustment pressure [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market in the second half of the year is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, supply may increase due to lower costs, while demand is limited, and high inventory persists. The "anti - involution" logic offers potential for improvement if effective industry integration occurs [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon main contract is 7600 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.6%, a daily decline of 0.99%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 94.8%. The main contract's closing price is 8045 yuan/ton, up 0.81% from the previous period, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest [2][9]. - **Spread**: The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 7.69% from the previous period, and the SI11 - 12 spread is - 325 yuan/ton, up 2.99% [11]. - **Spot Data** - **Prices**: The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions show little change, except for a 1.05% decline in Sichuan's 421 silicon. The spread between 421 and 553 in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as N - type polysilicon, granular silicon, DMC, and SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 are presented in the report [15]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - **Basis**: The basis of East China's 421 and 553 industrial silicon main contracts has decreased. The 421 basis is 1005 yuan/ton, down 6.07%, and the 553 basis is 705 yuan/ton, down 8.44% [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 51349 lots, a decrease of 352 lots. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows various changes [20]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the polysilicon main contract is 33000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.90%, a daily increase of 0.57%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 84.12%. The main contract's closing price is 36515 yuan/ton, up 2.83% from the previous period, with changes in trading volume and open interest [2][23]. - **Spread**: The PS08 - 09 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 71.43% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, down 63.25%; and the PS09 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 49.18% [25]. - **Spot Data** - **Prices**: The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as N - type, cauliflower, and dense materials, show no daily change. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also remain stable [30][32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - **Basis**: The basis of the polysilicon main contract and other contracts has decreased significantly. The main contract's basis is - 915 yuan/ton, down 1116.67% [38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) using SI2509/PS2509 and over - the - counter/on - exchange options. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also suggested [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy long - term futures contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2].

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated June 25, 2025, written by Xia Yingying and Yu Weihang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. It is necessary to wait for inventory to be digested to a healthy level [3] - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the industry situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Price Range - Industrial silicon's strong pressure level is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.0%, a daily decline of 1.00%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 72.2% [2] - Polysilicon's strong pressure level is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.26%, a daily decline of 0.30%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 53.38% [2] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production plans and raw material price increase risks, buy long - term futures contracts according to production plans, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Core Logic - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply surplus pressure persists. Supply may increase with the approaching of the wet season, and demand from different industries varies. It is necessary to wait for inventory digestion [3] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination or integration, the industry situation may improve [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: Cost reduction space is limited in the short - term, profit valuation is low, and there is a high probability of supply disturbances; downstream enterprises' profits exist, and production enthusiasm is promoted by the approaching wet season [7] - **Polysilicon**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans; downstream enterprises recognize and buy polysilicon on the futures side; the phenomenon of high open interest in near - month contracts and few warehouse receipts may cause market fluctuations [7] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: The release of production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be realized as the wet season approaches; the rumor of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality [7] - **Polysilicon**: The failure of enterprise integration and elimination, and enterprises maintain the status quo of production; raw material prices are low and production profit increases, leading to increased production [5][8] Industrial Silicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.94% [10] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 504,119 lots, a decrease of 17.69% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 306,644 lots, an increase of 4.50% compared with the previous period [10] Industrial Silicon Spot Data - Prices of 553 and 421 silicon in different regions are mostly stable, with the price of Sichuan 421 silicon decreasing by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [16] - The basis of East China 553 and 421 silicon has decreased, with a decline of 8.9% and 5.08% respectively [16] Polysilicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 30,625 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1.48% [24] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 146,141 lots, a decrease of 15.02% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 80,107 lots, an increase of 10.82% compared with the previous period [24] Polysilicon Spot Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon are stable, with no daily change [37] Silicon Wafer Data - The prices of N - type silicon wafers mostly show a downward trend, with the N - type silicon wafer price index decreasing by 0.02 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.02 [38] Warehouse Receipt Data - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts are 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots compared with the previous period, a decline of 3.52% [22] - The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, with no change compared with the previous period [40]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 23, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Risk Management Report on Silicon Industry Chain Enterprises - Analyst: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand side shows that the overall output of silicone enterprises remains stable, while aluminum alloy enterprises perform averagely. The high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting the price upside [3]. - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The PV rush - installation tide has overdrafted some future demand. On the supply side, raw material prices remain low, polysilicon production has increased, and downstream production schedules have slightly declined, with high inventory pressure still existing. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the polysilicon industry situation [3]. Key Points by Category 1. Futures Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 7600 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.0%, daily increase of 0.02%, current volatility at the 84.6% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 33000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 25.76%, daily increase of 0.35%, current volatility at the 61.20% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, short futures (SI2509/PS2509) with a 30% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs, sell call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange options) with a 70% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon or polysilicon according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth in the long run; cost reduction space is limited in the short term, providing cost support; downstream demand enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season may boost production enthusiasm [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be released; rumors of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality, weakening demand; high inventory restricts price increases [7]. Polysilicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry, which could improve the industry situation if an agreement is reached [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Inventory is still in an accumulation trend, and demand has not improved; the combination of low raw material prices and the approaching wet season may lead to increased production by polysilicon enterprises [8]. 4. Market Data Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures主力合约 is 7420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan (0.41%); the trading volume is 292932 lots, a decrease of 285562 lots (- 49.36%); the open interest is 303119 lots, a decrease of 2437 lots (- 0.80%) [10]. - **Spot**: The price of East China 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of East China 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the basis of East China 553 is 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 3.95%); the basis of East China 421 is 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 2.29%) [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots (- 5.29%); the inventory at the Kunming delivery warehouse is 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons (- 37.67%) [19]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures主力合约 is 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1085 yuan (- 3.42%); the trading volume is 88450 lots, an increase of 334 lots (0.38%); the open interest is 78183 lots, an increase of 52026 lots (198.90%) [22]. - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon (dense material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no daily change; the price of N - type polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no daily change [37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2600 lots, with no daily change [40].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Hongxu, Yu Weihan [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals remain weak, but the open interest has reached a record high. Be vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by short - covering. The overall industry is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to further inventory accumulation, and the demand side is weak [2][3]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are also weak. The spread between the 06 - 07 contracts is strengthening. Be cautious about the spread of the delivery logic of the PS2506 contract to the PS2507 contract. The market is in a state where fundamentals and delivery logic alternate, with wide - range fluctuations on the futures market [3]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between SI and PS [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Volatility - Industrial silicon: The price of the main contract has a strong resistance level at 7900 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.7% and a historical percentile of 83.5% over 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34000 - 38000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.78% and a historical percentile of 65% over 3 years [2] Group 5: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, short industrial silicon/polysilicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy rating of 3 [2]. - If product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 80% and a strategy rating of 4, and buy out - of - the - money put options with a strategy rating of 3 [2]. Procurement Management - If the company has a production plan and there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy forward contracts of industrial silicon/polysilicon to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2]. - Sell put options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 2, and buy out - of - the - money call options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2] Group 6: Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply: The industry is in the stage of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to increased production in Southwest China and further inventory accumulation [3]. - Demand: The demand side is weak, with downstream enterprises bargaining for lower prices. There are still expectations of production cuts in polysilicon and organic silicon, the main downstream consumers [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: The production remains stable, and high - inventory pressure persists. Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation [3]. - Demand: The support from downstream demand has weakened significantly after the end of the PV installation rush, and the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. - Futures Market: As the delivery month approaches, the contradiction between open interest and warehouse receipts will become more prominent, and the price fluctuations will increase [3] Group 7:利多 and利空 Factors Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand, and the cost side has strong support as the short - term collapse space is limited [4]. - Bearish factors: The production capacity in Southwest China is expected to be released as the flood season approaches, and there are actual production cuts in downstream polysilicon enterprises, with inventory continuing to accumulate and weak demand [6][7] Polysilicon - Bullish factors: Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation, and the low willingness of enterprises for delivery may lead to a delivery - based market logic [4]. - Bearish factors: The failure of enterprise integration and continued inventory accumulation with weak demand [15] Group 8: Market Data Futures Market - Industrial silicon: The latest price of the main contract is 7215 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 125 yuan, a weekly decline of 665 yuan (- 8.44%), and an annual decline of 41.53%. The trading volume is 539683 lots, and the open interest is 224146 lots [7]. - Polysilicon: The latest price of the main contract is 35280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 180 yuan, a weekly decline of 800 yuan (- 2.22%). The trading volume is 145339 lots, and the open interest is 78271 lots [7] Spot Market - Industrial silicon: The prices of various grades in different regions are provided, such as 8500 yuan/ton for East China 553, 9200 yuan/ton for East China 421, etc. The basis and price spreads are also given [14][16] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Industrial silicon: The total number of warehouse receipts is 63868 lots, with a decrease of 418 lots (- 3.22%). The inventory in different delivery warehouses is reported, such as 8.8 million tons in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [24]