Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Hongxu, Yu Weihan [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals remain weak, but the open interest has reached a record high. Be vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by short - covering. The overall industry is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to further inventory accumulation, and the demand side is weak [2][3]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are also weak. The spread between the 06 - 07 contracts is strengthening. Be cautious about the spread of the delivery logic of the PS2506 contract to the PS2507 contract. The market is in a state where fundamentals and delivery logic alternate, with wide - range fluctuations on the futures market [3]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between SI and PS [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Volatility - Industrial silicon: The price of the main contract has a strong resistance level at 7900 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.7% and a historical percentile of 83.5% over 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34000 - 38000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.78% and a historical percentile of 65% over 3 years [2] Group 5: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, short industrial silicon/polysilicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy rating of 3 [2]. - If product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 80% and a strategy rating of 4, and buy out - of - the - money put options with a strategy rating of 3 [2]. Procurement Management - If the company has a production plan and there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy forward contracts of industrial silicon/polysilicon to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2]. - Sell put options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 2, and buy out - of - the - money call options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2] Group 6: Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply: The industry is in the stage of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to increased production in Southwest China and further inventory accumulation [3]. - Demand: The demand side is weak, with downstream enterprises bargaining for lower prices. There are still expectations of production cuts in polysilicon and organic silicon, the main downstream consumers [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: The production remains stable, and high - inventory pressure persists. Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation [3]. - Demand: The support from downstream demand has weakened significantly after the end of the PV installation rush, and the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. - Futures Market: As the delivery month approaches, the contradiction between open interest and warehouse receipts will become more prominent, and the price fluctuations will increase [3] Group 7:利多 and利空 Factors Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand, and the cost side has strong support as the short - term collapse space is limited [4]. - Bearish factors: The production capacity in Southwest China is expected to be released as the flood season approaches, and there are actual production cuts in downstream polysilicon enterprises, with inventory continuing to accumulate and weak demand [6][7] Polysilicon - Bullish factors: Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation, and the low willingness of enterprises for delivery may lead to a delivery - based market logic [4]. - Bearish factors: The failure of enterprise integration and continued inventory accumulation with weak demand [15] Group 8: Market Data Futures Market - Industrial silicon: The latest price of the main contract is 7215 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 125 yuan, a weekly decline of 665 yuan (- 8.44%), and an annual decline of 41.53%. The trading volume is 539683 lots, and the open interest is 224146 lots [7]. - Polysilicon: The latest price of the main contract is 35280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 180 yuan, a weekly decline of 800 yuan (- 2.22%). The trading volume is 145339 lots, and the open interest is 78271 lots [7] Spot Market - Industrial silicon: The prices of various grades in different regions are provided, such as 8500 yuan/ton for East China 553, 9200 yuan/ton for East China 421, etc. The basis and price spreads are also given [14][16] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Industrial silicon: The total number of warehouse receipts is 63868 lots, with a decrease of 418 lots (- 3.22%). The inventory in different delivery warehouses is reported, such as 8.8 million tons in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [24]