Report Overview - The report is the "South China Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily" dated September 24, 2025, by the South China New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently in a state of internal oscillation, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. Concerns about the stability of ore supply are increasing, while the cobalt price has upward potential, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices remain firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude before the holiday [3] Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.88% and a historical percentile of 0.1% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - In the nickel market, the Indonesian energy department's sanctions on mining companies have increased concerns about the stability of ore supply. In the new energy sector, the expected extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo may drive up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices are firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude [3] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, and the stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks. Also, the Indonesian forestry working group has taken over part of the nickel mining area [5] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless steel import tariffs, the implementation of South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel plates, weak stainless steel spot transactions [5] Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,450 yuan/ton, up 1% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 103.70% to 107,755 lots, and the open interest increased by 125.11% to 85,526 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with little change. The trading volume decreased by 12.00% to 122,330 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.80% to 116,704 lots [5] Inventory Data - Domestic nickel social inventory is 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons; LME nickel inventory is 230,586 tons, an increase of 132 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]

Core Viewpoint - A profound transformation is occurring in Henan, focusing on the construction of a modern industrial system, where companies like Tongda Cable Co., Ltd. are leveraging the futures market to manage risks and seize opportunities amid commodity price fluctuations [2][3]. Company Overview - Tongda Cable, founded in 1987 and listed in 2011, has been a leader in the cable industry for nearly 40 years, specializing in the production and sales of cables, precision processing of aircraft components, and aluminum-based composite materials [3]. - The company has an annual production capacity of over 100,000 tons for ultra-high voltage cables and 50,000 kilometers for power and high-end cables, contributing to major projects like the 1000kV transmission line [3]. Challenges Faced - The company faces significant challenges due to raw material costs, with electrolytic aluminum and cathode copper accounting for over 70% of production costs [4]. - Price volatility of these metals, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors, has led to substantial risks, particularly when contracts are won based on current prices but delivered months later [4]. Risk Management Strategy - Since 2007, Tongda Cable has utilized futures tools, starting with aluminum and later expanding to copper, to hedge against price fluctuations [6]. - The company has developed a comprehensive risk management framework, including a specialized internal control system, a professional team, and strict risk management protocols [8]. Recent Developments - In response to rising aluminum prices in late 2024, the company quickly implemented a hedging strategy by purchasing call options, resulting in a profit of 44,440 yuan, effectively mitigating the impact of rising raw material costs [7]. - Tongda Cable has been recognized as a best practice case for risk management in futures by the China Listed Companies Association and has been approved as a service base for integrating finance and industry [6][11]. Industry Collaboration - The company emphasizes collaboration within the supply chain, moving from a focus on price to technology and service, enhancing customer engagement from the design phase of projects [10]. - Tongda Cable is also establishing a strategic supplier evaluation system to strengthen partnerships and improve communication regarding hedging tools and market analysis [11]. Conclusion - Tongda Cable's experience exemplifies how companies in Henan are effectively utilizing futures and derivative tools to manage price risks, stabilize operations, and achieve high-quality development in line with national industrial goals [11].

Group 1 - The training session aims to enhance risk management capabilities of agricultural enterprises in Yinchuan through the use of futures and derivatives [1][2] - The agricultural industry in Yinchuan is a key pillar for local economic development, facing increased operational pressures due to international commodity price fluctuations and extreme weather [2][3] - Futures markets serve as a crucial tool for price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, helping agricultural producers stabilize costs and revenues [2][3] Group 2 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has been actively collaborating with local governments and financial institutions, serving over 1.8 million farmers through various risk management programs [3][5] - The training focused on core agricultural products like soybean meal and corn, providing practical applications of risk management tools [3][4] - Experts emphasized the importance of avoiding misconceptions about hedging and encouraged businesses to develop strategies based on industry needs [4][5] Group 3 - The training included both theoretical knowledge and practical case studies, fostering interaction between participants and instructors [5] - Companies expressed intentions to explore new models combining futures pricing with contract farming to enhance collaboration across the supply chain [5][6] - Future initiatives will focus on deepening services for local enterprises to leverage futures tools for risk management and competitiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The training session aims to enhance the risk management capabilities of agricultural enterprises in Yinchuan through the use of futures and derivatives, thereby promoting the high-quality development of the agricultural and livestock industry in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context - Yinchuan is a significant agricultural production base in Northwest China, with the agricultural and livestock industry being a key pillar for economic growth [2]. - Recent fluctuations in international commodity prices and extreme weather have increased the price volatility of agricultural products, putting pressure on agricultural enterprises [2]. Group 2: Importance of Futures Market - The futures market serves as a crucial tool for price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, which is essential for stabilizing production expectations and enhancing industry resilience [2][3]. - Over 70% of soybean meal and palm oil, and 40% of soybean oil spot trades use DCE futures prices as the pricing benchmark [3]. Group 3: Training Content and Objectives - The training focused on core agricultural products such as soybean meal and corn, providing insights into futures contract rules and practical case studies to help enterprises apply risk management tools effectively [3][4]. - The course design emphasized practical effectiveness, combining foundational knowledge of the futures market with numerous real-world case studies [5]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Strategies - Experts highlighted the need for enterprises to move away from traditional speculative trading methods and adopt refined risk management strategies using basis pricing and options [4]. - The current supply-demand balance for corn is tight, with a projected production of 295 million tons in 2024, necessitating the use of futures tools for stable operations [4]. Group 5: Future Initiatives - The DCE plans to deepen cooperation with local governments and financial institutions to enhance risk management capabilities among Ningxia enterprises [5]. - Future activities will focus on building cross-regional cooperation platforms to promote Ningxia's agricultural products in national and international markets [5].

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Short-term may continue to fluctuate. August 7 Risk Management Daily Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The bottom support of nickel ore is limited, the production and shipment of nickel ore in the Philippines are still at a high level, and there is no obvious adjustment in the short-term premium in Indonesia. The price of ferronickel continued to strongly correct during the day, with a strong willingness to support the price on the supply side and a generally bullish sentiment among traders recently, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remains to be seen. The salt plants in the new energy chain have had some support recently, with an increase in the demand of some downstream precursor plants and a certain increase in transactions. Stainless steel once again reached the 13,000 mark during the day, but the spot market followed the increase limitedly, and downstream buyers still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced resources. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continues. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [5]. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai nickel price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20-day rolling) is 15.17%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 3.2% [3] - Stainless steel price range forecast: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, current volatility (20-day rolling) is 9.27%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory management**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of the NI main contract); sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [3] - **Procurement management**: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory management**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of the SS main contract); sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [4] - **Procurement management**: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market; sell put options and buy out - of - the money call options according to the procurement plan [4] Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The bottom support of nickel ore is limited, the production and shipment of nickel ore in the Philippines are still at a high level, and there is no obvious adjustment in the short - term premium in Indonesia. The price of ferronickel continued to strongly correct during the day, with a strong willingness to support the price on the supply side and a generally bullish sentiment among traders recently, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remains to be seen. The salt plants in the new energy chain have had some support recently, with an increase in the demand of some downstream precursor plants and a certain increase in transactions. Stainless steel once again reached the 13,000 mark during the day, but the spot market followed the increase limitedly, and downstream buyers still hold a wait - and - see attitude towards high - priced resources. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continues. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [5] 利多 and利空 Factors 利多 Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - Ferronickel transactions are constantly warming up [7] 利空 Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore increases, and the bottom support is loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [7] Market Data Nickel - **Futures prices**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 780 yuan (1%); the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 15,130 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars (0.08%) [7] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume is 96,611 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8,771 lots (9.99%); the open interest is 81,103 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,949 lots (- 5.75%) [7] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 20,687 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 102 tons (- 0.49%) [7] - **Basis of main contract**: The basis of the main contract is - 1,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan (19.5%) [7] Stainless Steel - **Futures prices**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65 yuan (1%) [8] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume is 85,499 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 3,480 lots (4.24%); the open interest is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462 lots (- 2.93%) [8] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423 tons (0.41%) [8] - **Basis of main contract**: The basis of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan (8.06%) [8] Inventory Data - **Domestic social inventory of nickel**: 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons compared with the previous period [9] - **LME nickel inventory**: 211,212 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with the previous period [9] - **Stainless steel social inventory**: 966.2 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with the previous period [9] - **Nickel pig iron inventory**: 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons compared with the previous period [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry will be in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, with the photovoltaic industry potentially boosting demand, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy enterprises maintaining stable demand. The price will show a wide - range fluctuation. Suggestions include looking for opportunities to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread trading, and going long on industrial silicon while shorting polysilicon [4]. - Positive factors are the "anti - involution" policy, limited downward space for costs, and better - than - expected demand. Negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration in the polysilicon industry [5][6]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, lower electricity prices and higher profits may increase production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory persists. If industry integration is effective, it may drive prices up. The suggestion is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread trading [8]. - Positive factors are potential industry integration and increased external demand from the US. Negative factors are inventory accumulation if integration fails [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The industrial silicon main contract shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.7%, a daily increase of 1.09%, and the current volatility at the 96.4% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 8695 yuan/ton, up 3.33% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1473993 lots, up 54.58%; the open interest is 402890 lots, up 9.54%. SI09 - 11 spread is 90 yuan/ton, up 28.57% [2][13][15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 8850 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The East China 553 basis is 435 yuan/ton, up 55.36%, and the East China 421 - 553 spread is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50090 lots, down 139 lots or 3.58% from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventories in different delivery warehouses have different changes [24]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The polysilicon main contract also shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.99%, a daily increase of 0.01%, and the current volatility at the 84.73% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 41765 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes. PS08 - 09 spread is 320 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [2][27][29]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as P - type and N - type, have different daily changes. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 43.45 yuan/kg, down 3.01% [34]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The polysilicon main contract basis is 1685 yuan/ton, down 51.44% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [41][43]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management of industrial silicon and polysilicon, when product inventory is high, strategies include shorting futures, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, when there is a risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying forward futures contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated July 9, 2025, focusing on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, with persistent supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs in the wet season, while downstream demand is insufficient. Short - term inventory has decreased, but remains at a historical high. The industry faces significant adjustment pressure. Recommended strategies are SI2509 - SI2512 positive spread arbitrage and long SI2508 - short PS2511 [4] Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is influenced by both fundamental and "anti - involution" logics. Fundamentally, lower raw material prices and expected lower electricity costs may boost production capacity, but demand growth is limited after the H1 PV installation rush. High inventory persists. If effective industry integration occurs, it could reverse the current situation. The recommended strategy is PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread arbitrage [10] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous period; trading volume is 1153446 lots, down 32.44%; open interest is 399029 lots, up 3.08%. SI09 - 11 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 22.22%; SI11 - 12 spread is - 310 yuan/ton, up 4.62% [14][16] Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remain stable. The basis of East China 553 is 535 yuan/ton, down 24.11%; the basis of East China 421 is 835 yuan/ton, down 16.92%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [18] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipts are 50792 lots, down 285 lots (1.27%). Warehouse receipts in some regional delivery warehouses have changed slightly [25] Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 39270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%; trading volume is 794464 lots, up 25.24%; open interest is 97187 lots, down 12.09%. PS08 - 09 spread is 400 yuan/ton, up 63.27%; PS08 - 11 spread is 810 yuan/ton, up 70.53%; PS09 - 11 spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 78.26%; PS11 - 12 spread is - 2135 yuan/ton, up 15.61% [28][30] Spot Data - Spot prices of some polysilicon products are stable, while N - type polysilicon price index and some other products have increased slightly. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 40 yuan/kg, up 3.36% [35] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 730 yuan/ton, up 131.75%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment. Also, buy out - of - the - money put options [2] Procurement Management - When there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, with continuous supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs during the wet season, while downstream demand is weak. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the industry still faces significant adjustment pressure [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market in the second half of the year is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, supply may increase due to lower costs, while demand is limited, and high inventory persists. The "anti - involution" logic offers potential for improvement if effective industry integration occurs [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon main contract is 7600 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.6%, a daily decline of 0.99%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 94.8%. The main contract's closing price is 8045 yuan/ton, up 0.81% from the previous period, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest [2][9]. - **Spread**: The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 7.69% from the previous period, and the SI11 - 12 spread is - 325 yuan/ton, up 2.99% [11]. - **Spot Data** - **Prices**: The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions show little change, except for a 1.05% decline in Sichuan's 421 silicon. The spread between 421 and 553 in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as N - type polysilicon, granular silicon, DMC, and SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 are presented in the report [15]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - **Basis**: The basis of East China's 421 and 553 industrial silicon main contracts has decreased. The 421 basis is 1005 yuan/ton, down 6.07%, and the 553 basis is 705 yuan/ton, down 8.44% [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 51349 lots, a decrease of 352 lots. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows various changes [20]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the polysilicon main contract is 33000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.90%, a daily increase of 0.57%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 84.12%. The main contract's closing price is 36515 yuan/ton, up 2.83% from the previous period, with changes in trading volume and open interest [2][23]. - **Spread**: The PS08 - 09 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 71.43% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, down 63.25%; and the PS09 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 49.18% [25]. - **Spot Data** - **Prices**: The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as N - type, cauliflower, and dense materials, show no daily change. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also remain stable [30][32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - **Basis**: The basis of the polysilicon main contract and other contracts has decreased significantly. The main contract's basis is - 915 yuan/ton, down 1116.67% [38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) using SI2509/PS2509 and over - the - counter/on - exchange options. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also suggested [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy long - term futures contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2].

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated June 25, 2025, written by Xia Yingying and Yu Weihang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. It is necessary to wait for inventory to be digested to a healthy level [3] - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the industry situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Price Range - Industrial silicon's strong pressure level is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.0%, a daily decline of 1.00%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 72.2% [2] - Polysilicon's strong pressure level is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.26%, a daily decline of 0.30%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 53.38% [2] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production plans and raw material price increase risks, buy long - term futures contracts according to production plans, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Core Logic - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply surplus pressure persists. Supply may increase with the approaching of the wet season, and demand from different industries varies. It is necessary to wait for inventory digestion [3] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination or integration, the industry situation may improve [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: Cost reduction space is limited in the short - term, profit valuation is low, and there is a high probability of supply disturbances; downstream enterprises' profits exist, and production enthusiasm is promoted by the approaching wet season [7] - **Polysilicon**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans; downstream enterprises recognize and buy polysilicon on the futures side; the phenomenon of high open interest in near - month contracts and few warehouse receipts may cause market fluctuations [7] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: The release of production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be realized as the wet season approaches; the rumor of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality [7] - **Polysilicon**: The failure of enterprise integration and elimination, and enterprises maintain the status quo of production; raw material prices are low and production profit increases, leading to increased production [5][8] Industrial Silicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.94% [10] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 504,119 lots, a decrease of 17.69% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 306,644 lots, an increase of 4.50% compared with the previous period [10] Industrial Silicon Spot Data - Prices of 553 and 421 silicon in different regions are mostly stable, with the price of Sichuan 421 silicon decreasing by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [16] - The basis of East China 553 and 421 silicon has decreased, with a decline of 8.9% and 5.08% respectively [16] Polysilicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 30,625 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1.48% [24] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 146,141 lots, a decrease of 15.02% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 80,107 lots, an increase of 10.82% compared with the previous period [24] Polysilicon Spot Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon are stable, with no daily change [37] Silicon Wafer Data - The prices of N - type silicon wafers mostly show a downward trend, with the N - type silicon wafer price index decreasing by 0.02 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.02 [38] Warehouse Receipt Data - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts are 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots compared with the previous period, a decline of 3.52% [22] - The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, with no change compared with the previous period [40]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 23, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Risk Management Report on Silicon Industry Chain Enterprises - Analyst: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand side shows that the overall output of silicone enterprises remains stable, while aluminum alloy enterprises perform averagely. The high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting the price upside [3]. - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The PV rush - installation tide has overdrafted some future demand. On the supply side, raw material prices remain low, polysilicon production has increased, and downstream production schedules have slightly declined, with high inventory pressure still existing. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the polysilicon industry situation [3]. Key Points by Category 1. Futures Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 7600 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.0%, daily increase of 0.02%, current volatility at the 84.6% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 33000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 25.76%, daily increase of 0.35%, current volatility at the 61.20% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, short futures (SI2509/PS2509) with a 30% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs, sell call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange options) with a 70% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon or polysilicon according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth in the long run; cost reduction space is limited in the short term, providing cost support; downstream demand enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season may boost production enthusiasm [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be released; rumors of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality, weakening demand; high inventory restricts price increases [7]. Polysilicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry, which could improve the industry situation if an agreement is reached [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Inventory is still in an accumulation trend, and demand has not improved; the combination of low raw material prices and the approaching wet season may lead to increased production by polysilicon enterprises [8]. 4. Market Data Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures主力合约 is 7420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan (0.41%); the trading volume is 292932 lots, a decrease of 285562 lots (- 49.36%); the open interest is 303119 lots, a decrease of 2437 lots (- 0.80%) [10]. - **Spot**: The price of East China 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of East China 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the basis of East China 553 is 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 3.95%); the basis of East China 421 is 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 2.29%) [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots (- 5.29%); the inventory at the Kunming delivery warehouse is 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons (- 37.67%) [19]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures主力合约 is 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1085 yuan (- 3.42%); the trading volume is 88450 lots, an increase of 334 lots (0.38%); the open interest is 78183 lots, an increase of 52026 lots (198.90%) [22]. - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon (dense material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no daily change; the price of N - type polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no daily change [37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2600 lots, with no daily change [40].