Core Insights - VisionPulsed has downplayed the bullish expectations for Dogecoin, stating that reaching the long-sought $1 mark requires precise coordination of market forces, which are currently lacking [2] - The overall market structure remains imperfect, making a parabolic breakout for Dogecoin difficult to achieve [2] Market Conditions - A decisive breakout of Ethereum to new highs and an extended halving cycle, along with global M2 liquidity support, are necessary for Dogecoin's next parabolic move [2] - Bitcoin's dominance rebound has weakened the prospects for altcoins to rally collectively [2] Ethereum's Role - Ethereum has improved its setup by reaching new cycle highs and breaking the $4,000 mark, but it is still below two significant technical barriers from 2021 [2] - A confirmation of a new bull market for Ethereum is expected only after it breaks these high points [2] Dogecoin's Current Status - Dogecoin is currently in a broad and volatile accumulation phase, which may include false breakouts rather than a definitive upward trend [3] - The price of DOGE is currently at $0.22 [5] Timing and Historical Context - The analysis highlights a critical timing aspect, noting that the 486 days following the last Bitcoin halving have historically been turning points [3] - The next halving is set for April 19, 2024, with a similar threshold expected on August 18, 2025 [3] M2 Liquidity Insights - M2 liquidity remains supportive but is not a decisive factor; it has shown to continue rising even during bear markets in the past [4] - Three conditions must be met for Dogecoin to sustainably approach $1: Ethereum must break its 2021 high, the halving cycle must extend, and global M2 expansion must maintain sufficient support [4] Price Volatility - Significant price fluctuations around $0.30 are possible without structural adjustments, defined as a tradable range within a larger consolidation phase [4]

Core Insights - The historical "cycle" of Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking, influenced by changes in investor structure and favorable regulatory policies, which could significantly impact price assessments and investment timing [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Cycle and Market Dynamics - The Bitcoin cycle typically refers to the four-year price fluctuation pattern surrounding the "halving" event, which reduces mining rewards and limits total supply to 21 million coins [3] - Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to reach new highs within 12-18 months post-halving, but recent market reactions have deviated from this pattern, with Bitcoin reaching over $73,000 a month before the next halving [3][4] - The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 is a major factor, attracting institutional investors and significantly influencing price dynamics [4] Group 2: Changes in Market Environment - The current market environment is different from previous "crypto winters," with fewer instances of major collapses like the ICO crash in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022, alongside a more favorable macroeconomic and regulatory landscape [4] - Regulatory bodies are shifting from strict oversight to a more accepting stance towards cryptocurrencies, which is expected to reduce the risk of future market crashes [4] - Companies are increasingly incorporating cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, into their strategic plans, indicating a maturation of the market [4] Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Resilience - Historical data suggests that Bitcoin prices typically see the largest increases between 500 to 720 days post-halving, with potential price acceleration expected in late 2025 to early 2026 [5] - The current cycle shows a more subdued price movement compared to previous cycles, with expectations of a maximum drawdown of around 26%, significantly lower than the 70%-80% drops seen in past cycles [6] - Long-term holders and stable institutional inflows are enhancing market resilience, with potential future corrections expected to be less severe than in previous cycles [6]