Bitcoin's more than 30% drop from its record high underscores the volatility that has come to characterize the cryptocurrency.Moves from previous cycles not only show how the current price swings are all part of bitcoin's normal operating pattern but also how they may often precede a rally, according to figures compiled by CoinDesk Data for CNBC.Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, dropped to a low of around $80,000 late last month before staging a rally and falling again this week. When bitcoin dro ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic event on November 28, 2025, where Bitcoin surged to a peak of $91,800, but within 24 hours, nearly 100,000 traders faced liquidation, resulting in a loss of $547 million in principal. This paradox of rising prices coinciding with significant losses raises questions about market dynamics and institutional behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price rose sharply from mid-November, reaching $91,800 before a sudden drop to $86,000, showcasing volatility with over 6% fluctuation in a few hours [3][5]. - Among the 100,000 liquidated positions, 80% were long positions, indicating that most traders were betting on further price increases [3][5]. - Institutional investors have been withdrawing from Bitcoin ETFs, with $3.5 billion exiting in November alone, including $2.2 billion from the popular BlackRock IBIT fund, marking the worst redemption month since its inception [3][5][8]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The recent Bitcoin price surge is attributed to three main factors: 1. The halving event in April reduced the daily issuance of new Bitcoins from 1,800 to 900, leading to a scarcity in supply [5][6]. 2. The outflow of ETF funds indicates a shift in institutional sentiment, with estimates suggesting that a $1 billion outflow could lead to a 3.4% price drop, yet the market continued to rise due to retail investors absorbing the risk [8][9]. 3. High leverage among retail investors has amplified risks, with those using 10x leverage facing total loss on a mere 10% price drop, leading to widespread liquidations during market volatility [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently polarized between optimistic and pessimistic views. Optimists point to Bitcoin's realized market cap exceeding $900 billion and potential price targets of $150,000 by year-end, viewing recent corrections as temporary [11][12]. - Conversely, pessimists highlight extreme fear in the market, with the fear and greed index at 15, suggesting a potential 25% drop in Bitcoin's price, alongside increasing regulatory scrutiny [11][12]. - The future price trajectory of Bitcoin will depend on two critical factors: the return of ETF funds and the regulatory environment, which remains uncertain [12].

Market Cycle - The industry believes the 4-year cycle theory of Bitcoin is still valid [1] - Bitcoin's price continues to follow the pattern of Bitcoin halving [1] Market Sentiment - The industry emphasizes the importance of respecting the market and its cycles [1]

Group 1 - Cipher Mining announced a 15-year agreement worth $5.5 billion with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to support AI workloads, leading to a 16% pre-market stock price increase [1] - The lease agreement includes a delivery of 300 MW of power capacity in two phases starting in July 2026, with rent commencing in August 2026 [1] - Cipher Mining is developing a 1 GW "Colchis" project in West Texas, holding approximately 95% equity, with a direct connection agreement with American Electric Power (AEP) for full execution [1] Group 2 - Cipher Mining's Q3 2025 financial performance showed adjusted earnings per share of $0.10 and revenue of $71.71 million, a year-over-year increase of 197.6%, but slightly below Wall Street expectations [2] - The data center industry is rapidly expanding capacity to meet the surging demand driven by AI, while cryptocurrency mining profitability is declining due to increasing mining difficulty and costs [2] - Companies like Cipher Mining are leveraging high-performance computing demand for AI to monetize their data center infrastructure, providing a pathway for steady growth beyond the limited economic benefits of cryptocurrency mining [2]

Group 1 - Cipher Mining (CIFR.US) plans to issue junk bonds to raise several billion dollars to expand its data center capacity, following the example set by TeraWulf (WULF.US), which recently raised $3.2 billion [1] - Cipher Mining's stock price surged over 20% on Friday, closing up 19.73% [1] - The junk bonds issued by Cipher Mining will be supported by Alphabet (GOOGL.US) subsidiary Google, similar to TeraWulf's recent bond issuance [1] Group 2 - The data center industry is rapidly expanding capacity to meet the surge in demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom, leading to the use of junk bonds for financing [2] - As Bitcoin halving events occur, mining difficulty continues to increase, resulting in declining mining profits, prompting many cryptocurrency mining companies to shift towards data center operations [2]

Core Insights - Bitcoin halving is a significant mechanism in the cryptocurrency space that garners considerable attention due to its impact on Bitcoin's scarcity and long-term value [1] Group 1 - Bitcoin mining involves a process where new bitcoins are created and introduced into circulation, which is gradually slowed down over time [1] - The halving event reduces the reward for mining new blocks, which affects both miners and investors in different ways [1] - Once all bitcoins are mined, the system will need to maintain security and operation through alternative means [1]

Market Trend Analysis - The analysis suggests the Bitcoin bull market has ended and a bear market has begun [1][2] - The peak of the recent bull market was projected around October 6, 2025, with a Bitcoin price of $126,000 [1] Theoretical Framework - The "four-year cycle theory," driven by Bitcoin halving, is considered the most reliable cycle theory in the cryptocurrency space [1] - This theory divides a Bitcoin bull-bear cycle into four phases: "bull start," "halving," "bull end," and "bear market" [1] Cycle Dynamics - "Halving" events precede "bull start" phases, and follow "bull end" phases [1] - "Halving day" occurs during the "mid-section" of the overall bull market [1] - "Bull start" and "bull end" phases have approximately equal durations [1] - A one-year "bear market" follows the "bull end," preceding the next "halving day" and subsequent "bull start" [1]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Optimism in Wall Street is high, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings surpassing 600,000 coins and assets under management exceeding $280 billion [1] - Standard Chartered boldly predicts Bitcoin prices could reach $200,000 in the future, with institutional holdings expected to account for over 25% of Bitcoin's circulation by 2030 [1] - The U.S. Congress has passed the "Cryptocurrency Innovation Act," providing tax incentives for Bitcoin ETFs, while the EU's MiCA legislation and approvals in Germany and Switzerland further solidify Bitcoin's international standing [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns and Market Dynamics - Canary Capital's CEO warns of a brewing macroeconomic storm, predicting a Bitcoin bear market by 2026, with Ethereum potentially being replaced by more advanced blockchains like Solana and Sui [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have cooled, with only two rate cuts planned for 2025, while global liquidity tightening poses risks to risk assets [2] - Historical data suggests that a 20% drop in U.S. stocks could lead to a 33% decline in Bitcoin, echoing the bear market of 2022 [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Projections - Technical analysts predict Bitcoin could break through $140,000 by the end of 2025, but anticipate a significant correction in 2026 [4] - MicroStrategy's founder remains extremely optimistic, believing Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, while others forecast a price peak of $200,000 to $250,000 post-2024 halving [4] - On-chain data shows exchange reserves have dropped to a five-year low of 2.11 million coins, indicating strong market confidence with long-term holders' share exceeding 76% [4] Group 4: Ethereum's Position and Investor Choices - Concerns arise regarding Ethereum's future, with some analysts suggesting it may decline in favor of faster and cheaper alternatives like Solana and Sui [5] - However, Ethereum's robust developer ecosystem and application volume create significant barriers to competition, with Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum achieving high transaction volumes and low fees [5] - Some analysts maintain a positive outlook for Ethereum, with target prices between $8,000 and $10,000 still considered achievable [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Ordinary investors face the question of whether Bitcoin below $100,000 represents a final "buy-in" opportunity in the next three years [7] - Analysts caution that if Bitcoin falls to $120,000 to $150,000 during a bear market from 2026 to 2028, it may be the last chance to see five-digit Bitcoin prices [7] - The outcome of the current market battle will depend on institutional capital flows, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and Ethereum's ability to withstand challenges [7]

Core Insights - VisionPulsed has downplayed the bullish expectations for Dogecoin, stating that reaching the long-sought $1 mark requires precise coordination of market forces, which are currently lacking [2] - The overall market structure remains imperfect, making a parabolic breakout for Dogecoin difficult to achieve [2] Market Conditions - A decisive breakout of Ethereum to new highs and an extended halving cycle, along with global M2 liquidity support, are necessary for Dogecoin's next parabolic move [2] - Bitcoin's dominance rebound has weakened the prospects for altcoins to rally collectively [2] Ethereum's Role - Ethereum has improved its setup by reaching new cycle highs and breaking the $4,000 mark, but it is still below two significant technical barriers from 2021 [2] - A confirmation of a new bull market for Ethereum is expected only after it breaks these high points [2] Dogecoin's Current Status - Dogecoin is currently in a broad and volatile accumulation phase, which may include false breakouts rather than a definitive upward trend [3] - The price of DOGE is currently at $0.22 [5] Timing and Historical Context - The analysis highlights a critical timing aspect, noting that the 486 days following the last Bitcoin halving have historically been turning points [3] - The next halving is set for April 19, 2024, with a similar threshold expected on August 18, 2025 [3] M2 Liquidity Insights - M2 liquidity remains supportive but is not a decisive factor; it has shown to continue rising even during bear markets in the past [4] - Three conditions must be met for Dogecoin to sustainably approach $1: Ethereum must break its 2021 high, the halving cycle must extend, and global M2 expansion must maintain sufficient support [4] Price Volatility - Significant price fluctuations around $0.30 are possible without structural adjustments, defined as a tradable range within a larger consolidation phase [4]

Core Insights - The historical "cycle" of Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking, influenced by changes in investor structure and favorable regulatory policies, which could significantly impact price assessments and investment timing [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Cycle and Market Dynamics - The Bitcoin cycle typically refers to the four-year price fluctuation pattern surrounding the "halving" event, which reduces mining rewards and limits total supply to 21 million coins [3] - Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to reach new highs within 12-18 months post-halving, but recent market reactions have deviated from this pattern, with Bitcoin reaching over $73,000 a month before the next halving [3][4] - The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 is a major factor, attracting institutional investors and significantly influencing price dynamics [4] Group 2: Changes in Market Environment - The current market environment is different from previous "crypto winters," with fewer instances of major collapses like the ICO crash in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022, alongside a more favorable macroeconomic and regulatory landscape [4] - Regulatory bodies are shifting from strict oversight to a more accepting stance towards cryptocurrencies, which is expected to reduce the risk of future market crashes [4] - Companies are increasingly incorporating cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, into their strategic plans, indicating a maturation of the market [4] Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Resilience - Historical data suggests that Bitcoin prices typically see the largest increases between 500 to 720 days post-halving, with potential price acceleration expected in late 2025 to early 2026 [5] - The current cycle shows a more subdued price movement compared to previous cycles, with expectations of a maximum drawdown of around 26%, significantly lower than the 70%-80% drops seen in past cycles [6] - Long-term holders and stable institutional inflows are enhancing market resilience, with potential future corrections expected to be less severe than in previous cycles [6]