Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Optimism in Wall Street is high, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings surpassing 600,000 coins and assets under management exceeding $280 billion [1] - Standard Chartered boldly predicts Bitcoin prices could reach $200,000 in the future, with institutional holdings expected to account for over 25% of Bitcoin's circulation by 2030 [1] - The U.S. Congress has passed the "Cryptocurrency Innovation Act," providing tax incentives for Bitcoin ETFs, while the EU's MiCA legislation and approvals in Germany and Switzerland further solidify Bitcoin's international standing [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns and Market Dynamics - Canary Capital's CEO warns of a brewing macroeconomic storm, predicting a Bitcoin bear market by 2026, with Ethereum potentially being replaced by more advanced blockchains like Solana and Sui [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have cooled, with only two rate cuts planned for 2025, while global liquidity tightening poses risks to risk assets [2] - Historical data suggests that a 20% drop in U.S. stocks could lead to a 33% decline in Bitcoin, echoing the bear market of 2022 [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Projections - Technical analysts predict Bitcoin could break through $140,000 by the end of 2025, but anticipate a significant correction in 2026 [4] - MicroStrategy's founder remains extremely optimistic, believing Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, while others forecast a price peak of $200,000 to $250,000 post-2024 halving [4] - On-chain data shows exchange reserves have dropped to a five-year low of 2.11 million coins, indicating strong market confidence with long-term holders' share exceeding 76% [4] Group 4: Ethereum's Position and Investor Choices - Concerns arise regarding Ethereum's future, with some analysts suggesting it may decline in favor of faster and cheaper alternatives like Solana and Sui [5] - However, Ethereum's robust developer ecosystem and application volume create significant barriers to competition, with Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum achieving high transaction volumes and low fees [5] - Some analysts maintain a positive outlook for Ethereum, with target prices between $8,000 and $10,000 still considered achievable [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Ordinary investors face the question of whether Bitcoin below $100,000 represents a final "buy-in" opportunity in the next three years [7] - Analysts caution that if Bitcoin falls to $120,000 to $150,000 during a bear market from 2026 to 2028, it may be the last chance to see five-digit Bitcoin prices [7] - The outcome of the current market battle will depend on institutional capital flows, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and Ethereum's ability to withstand challenges [7]

加密货币分析师 VisionPulsed 在最新的市场更新中淡化了对狗狗币的看涨预期，他认为，要达到人们长期追求的 1 美元大关，需要市场力量的精 准协调，而目前这些力量尚未实现。尽管他承认投机性爆发的可能性存在，但他警告称，整体市场格局仍不完善，这导致狗狗币的抛物线式突破 难以实现。 狗狗币如何才能达到 1 美元？ 时机是他分析的第二个支柱。他将最近一次比特币减半后486天的标记视为先前周期中反复出现的拐点。"我们正快速接近2021年被认为是最后一 次牛市的冲刺……距离减半还有486天，"他说道，并回忆说，过去两个周期都经历了一次大幅回调，然后在这个窗口附近出现了最终的反弹。 2024年4月19日是减半日期，而2025年8月18日则是这次类似的门槛——他把这个日期视为背景，而非命运。"没有任何保证，"他强调，反思历史 韵律的局限性。 在他看来，从广为人知的M2货币供应量指标来看，流动性仍然具有支撑作用，但并非决定性因素。他承认"人人都关注M2，而且M2目前"表明这 段时间存在反弹的机会"。但他强调，这种关系并非永恒不变：在过去的周期中，即使加密货币进入熊市，M2仍持续走高。他的结论是务实而非 教条的："我们 ...

通常，减半后比特币价格会在数月内上涨创新高，随后暴跌 70%-80%，进入 "加密寒冬"，其他加密货 币价格也随之下跌。之后比特币会在一定区间波动，临近下次减半时价格回升，周而复始。但上次减半 前后市场反应不同以往，比特币在 2024 年 3 月，即减半前约一个月就涨至超 7.3 万美元的历史新高。 CoinDesk Data 研究分析师萨克沙姆・迪万指出，以往周期中，比特币在减半后 12-18 个月才创新高。 Bitwise 资产管理公司首席投资官马修・霍根表示："在 2026 年实现正回报前，周期尚未正式结束。但 我认为会实现，所以可以说，四年周期要结束了。" 比特币周期一般指围绕 "减半" 事件的四年价格波动模式。"减半" 是比特币代码设定的挖矿奖励调整机 制，约每四年发生一次，上次减半在 2024 年 4 月，之前是 2020 年 5 月。减半时，矿工获得的比特币奖 励减半，减少市场供应，比特币总量限定为 2100 万枚。 据香港IDC新天域互联了解，比特币的历史 "周期" 正显露出打破迹象，投资者结构变化与有利监管政 策正重塑其市场动态。若这一曾可预测的模式被打破，将深刻影响投资者对比特币价格走势的 ...