通常，减半后比特币价格会在数月内上涨创新高，随后暴跌 70%-80%，进入 "加密寒冬"，其他加密货 币价格也随之下跌。之后比特币会在一定区间波动，临近下次减半时价格回升，周而复始。但上次减半 前后市场反应不同以往，比特币在 2024 年 3 月，即减半前约一个月就涨至超 7.3 万美元的历史新高。 CoinDesk Data 研究分析师萨克沙姆・迪万指出，以往周期中，比特币在减半后 12-18 个月才创新高。 Bitwise 资产管理公司首席投资官马修・霍根表示："在 2026 年实现正回报前，周期尚未正式结束。但 我认为会实现，所以可以说，四年周期要结束了。" 比特币周期一般指围绕 "减半" 事件的四年价格波动模式。"减半" 是比特币代码设定的挖矿奖励调整机 制，约每四年发生一次，上次减半在 2024 年 4 月，之前是 2020 年 5 月。减半时，矿工获得的比特币奖 励减半，减少市场供应，比特币总量限定为 2100 万枚。 据香港IDC新天域互联了解，比特币的历史 "周期" 正显露出打破迹象，投资者结构变化与有利监管政 策正重塑其市场动态。若这一曾可预测的模式被打破，将深刻影响投资者对比特币价格走势的 ...

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]

Group 1 - The recent progress in stablecoin legislation in the U.S. has led to increased market expectations for regulatory clarity during Trump's presidency, resulting in Bitcoin's price rising by 2.7% and surpassing $110,000, a new historical high [1][3] - The proposed bipartisan stablecoin legislation aims to enhance consumer protection and impose stricter regulations on money laundering and foreign issuers, ensuring that both domestic and foreign issuers face the same rules [3] - Bitcoin has been viewed as a safe-haven asset during financial market turmoil caused by trade tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, with recent discussions around rising national debt further supporting this narrative [3] Group 2 - Bitcoin has risen approximately 14% year-to-date, outperforming other risk assets like the Nasdaq 100 index, which has declined by about 2% since December [5] - Demand for Bitcoin has surged, particularly from companies like Michael Saylor's Strategy, which has accumulated over $50 billion worth of Bitcoin, and other firms adopting similar purchasing strategies [5] - Various investment products, including convertible bonds and preferred shares, are being offered by Bitcoin miners and newly established companies in the crypto industry, providing investors with different exposure to Bitcoin [5] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has seen a 23% increase in Bitcoin futures open interest since April's year-to-date low, while approximately $3.6 billion has been injected into about 12 Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. since May [4] - A significant increase in demand for short-term call options on Bitcoin has been observed, with many bets placed for prices to reach $110,000, $120,000, and even $300,000 by June 27 [3][4]

Core Insights - Bitcoin reached a historic high of $109,455.99, surpassing its previous record set on January 20, coinciding with regulatory advancements in stablecoin legislation in the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The stablecoin bill, supported by a group of Democrats, has progressed in the U.S. Senate after overcoming opposition, with hopes for a swift passage this week [3] - Proposed legislation includes stricter regulations on money laundering, foreign issuers, and technology companies, along with enhanced consumer protection measures [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The number of open Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased by 23% from a year-to-date low in April [4] - Investors have injected approximately $3.6 billion into 12 Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in May [4] - The passage of the stablecoin bill is expected to create new funding channels, potentially injecting billions into the digital currency market [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - Data from Glassnode indicates that the illiquid supply of Bitcoin has reached a historical peak, suggesting that the current price surge is driven by institutional inflows and structural factors rather than retail speculation [4] - Bitcoin is projected to reach a new price plateau between $150,000 and $180,000 this year, supported by a combination of factors including supply tightening and improved macroeconomic conditions [4]