Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is constrained by safety inspections, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. The price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term due to factors such as slowed procurement by downstream enterprises and limited profit margins [2]. - **For Coke**: Coke's first - round price increase has been fully implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired. It is expected to remain stable in the short - term, supported by high iron - water production and some replenishment demand [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Safety inspections in major coal - producing areas restrict production, and the price shows mixed trends. The market trading atmosphere has weakened as downstream enterprises are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1285, and the basis is 124, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week, including 805.8 tons in steel mills, 255.5 tons in ports, and 829.4 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, with long positions decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: After the first - round price increase of coke during the holiday, the profit of coke enterprises has slightly improved. However, after pre - holiday inventory replenishment, the procurement of raw coal by coke enterprises has slowed down. The price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: The first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, supporting a stable operating rate. The inventory in factories is at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1580, and the basis is - 86.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week, including 609.8 tons in steel mills, 215.1 tons in ports, and 39.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: The profit of coke enterprises is still meager, and some have production - reduction expectations. However, considering the inventory consumption after the holiday and high iron - water production, the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. Price - **Coking Coal**: The prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia are provided, with some prices showing increases or decreases [10]. - **Coke**: The prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, with some prices showing decreases [9]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [30]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [43]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期国家能源局将对部分超能力生产煤矿进行核查，焦煤供应缩减预期较强。随着多地企 业对焦炭价格进行二轮提涨，下游情绪继续高涨，部分贸易商投机需求旺盛，叠加焦钢企业采购原料煤 数量增加，矿方多新增订单，整体出货情况尚可，场地库存消耗无几，炼焦煤需求阶段性向好；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价970，基差-78.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：成材价格上涨，带动焦 ...

焦煤： 6、预期：近期下游焦钢企业及贸易商对原料煤采购积极，对一些跌幅较大的性价比较好的煤种加快采 购，加之偏强运行，市场看涨预期增强。然焦煤成本的上升，持续挤压焦企利润，焦企考虑到利润因素 对原料煤仍压价采购，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：部分整改煤矿开始复产，区域内供应有增加预期。现下市场交易较为活跃，焦企采购积极 性有所提升，矿方询价增多，出货顺畅，市场情绪良好，竞拍成交价普遍出现上涨；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价920，基差23；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the market sentiment has weakened due to the second round of coke price increase being stranded. The price is under pressure, but it is expected to remain stable in the short term as downstream profits are still available and开工 is okay, though the acceptance of high - priced coal is limited [2]. - For coke, although some steel mills have slowed down the procurement rhythm due to high inventory, the high pig iron production ensures the rigid demand, so the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Coal mine production is basically stable, with limited impact from individual mine shutdowns. The second - round coke price increase being stranded weakens market sentiment. Traders are accelerating shipments, coke enterprises are slowing down raw coal procurement, and some coal mine inventories are accumulating, putting pressure on coking coal prices. Rating: Neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1100, and the basis is 206, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 782.5 million tons, port inventory is 324.8 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.8 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons from last week. Rating: Bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line. Rating: Bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main coking coal position is net short, and the short position is increasing. Rating: Bearish [2]. - Expectation: It is difficult for the second - round coke price increase to be implemented. Currently, downstream profits are still available, and开工 is okay, but the acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. Most enterprises consume in - house inventory and do not replenish inventory excessively. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The price of raw coal is oscillating weakly. Coke enterprises can maintain small profits, and the overall production enthusiasm is okay, with a high and stable开工 rate. After the festival, steel mills' volume - control behavior has increased, and the shipment of some coke enterprises has slowed down, but the overall inventory pressure is small. Rating: Neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1470, and the basis is - 8, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 666.4 million tons, port inventory is 243.6 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 68.8 million tons. The total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from last week. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Expectation: Some steel mills have good arrival conditions, and their in - house inventory has increased to a relatively high level, so they slow down the coke procurement rhythm. However, considering the high pig iron production, the rigid demand for coke is still guaranteed. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production; Difficulty in increasing supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke and steel enterprises; Weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace开工 rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit space of steel mills; Partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Prices Coking Coal - On May 8 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia in different regions are provided, with some prices having slight changes [10]. Coke - On May 8 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke in different ports, types, and origins are provided, with most prices remaining unchanged [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [21]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. Other Indicators - Coke oven capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].