焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿由于年度任务完成，有自主减产现象，叠加产地安全检查频繁，产地供应延续偏 紧格局。近期中间贸易及洗煤企业参与度较低，多数企业以消耗前期库存为主，竞拍成交价与上期相比 多数下调，部分高价煤种仍出现流拍现象。考虑下游焦企刚需补库仍存，短期优质主焦煤价格依然坚挺， 而部分配焦煤出货一般，价格小幅回落；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1120，基差58；现货升水期货；偏多 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游钢厂检修有所增加，铁水产量持续回落，带动焦煤需求转弱。叠加下游焦钢库存虽处于 低位 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-10） 每日观点 焦煤： 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 1、基本面：受环保安检影响，焦煤供应有一定收缩，叠加下游刚需采购，煤矿库存持续下滑。近期下 游焦企在焦炭价格向好下，拉运积极性有所增加，煤矿多签单顺畅，产地库存整体消耗至低位水平，目 前煤价短期支撑偏强；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1430，基差160；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：下游焦企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to safety and environmental inspections and the storage - increase task of Shandong mines. The third round of price increase of coke has boosted the price of high - quality coking coal. Although downstream enterprises have some production restrictions, the demand remains strong. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2]. - **焦炭**: The third round of price increase of coke has been fully implemented, but the increase in coking coal prices has affected the profit of coke enterprises, leading to a decline in production. The market demand is strong, but considering the limited profit of steel mills, the difficulty of further price increase will increase, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Views - **焦煤**: - **基本面**: Supply is tight, and the price of high - quality coking coal is rising. The online auction of most coal types is still rising, and the auction failure rate is low [2]. - **基差**: The spot price is 1430, and the basis is 158.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **库存**: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [2]. - **盘面**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **主力持仓**: The main force of coking coal has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing [2]. - **预期**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2]. - **焦炭**: - **基本面**: The profit of coke enterprises has slightly recovered, but the rise in coking coal prices has affected production. The market inquiry and trading atmosphere is good [7]. - **基差**: The spot price is 1720, and the basis is - 33, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **库存**: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [7]. - **盘面**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - **主力持仓**: The main force of coke has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [7]. - **预期**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [6]. Price - **焦煤**: The prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal are provided, with some price increases [10]. - **焦炭**: The prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, with some price increases [11]. Inventory - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. - **独立焦企库存**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **钢厂库存**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [41]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply has not been significantly alleviated due to the slower - than - expected resumption of coal mines and some local mines still being shut down. The downstream demand is good, the market trading atmosphere is active, and the online auction results of coal mines are good, supporting the coal price to remain stable and slightly strong. However, some coke enterprises have limited production due to poor profitability, and the purchase of raw coal is relatively cautious. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - For coke, coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and the inventory is at a low level. Affected by the rising price of raw coal, the loss of coke enterprises has increased, resulting in insufficient willingness to start production. The supply of coke continues to be tight. With strong cost support, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is active, supporting the coal price; bullish [3]. - Basis: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is 135.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [4]. - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is long, with more long positions decreasing and short positions increasing; bullish [4]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises have limited production, but the demand for replenishing raw coal inventory still exists. Considering the poor profit, the purchase of raw materials is cautious. It is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, inventory is low, and the loss has increased due to the rising price of raw coal, resulting in insufficient willingness to start production. The supply is tight; bullish [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 1710, and the basis is - 61.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [8]. - Main position: The main net position of coke has changed from short to long; bullish [8]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises have increased production restrictions due to losses, while some steel mills are actively purchasing coke. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [7]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [6]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [10]. Prices - On November 3 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are provided, with some prices rising [11]. - On November 3 (17:30), the price indices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising [12]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Indicators - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-23） 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：铁水近期虽有小幅下滑，但总体仍在高位，刚需仍有支撑，下游库存暂时处于安全位置，但 近期考虑焦煤供应有收紧预期，部分采购计划有增加预期，但由于焦钢盈利状况普遍不佳，多数仍维持 按需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：部分煤矿因环保及安监趋严有所停产，加之供给端煤矿近日事故仍零星发生，区域性供应 有所缩减。贸易商询盘与实际成交订单稍有增加，煤矿出货顺畅，煤企焦煤库存有不同程度下滑，考虑 到目前煤矿厂内焦煤库存低位，且焦钢企业对部分优质资源采购力度不减，带动部分煤种有明显上涨现 象；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1300，基差90.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-13） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿安全检查力度仍存，对焦煤产量释放形成一定抑制。近期炼焦煤价格涨跌互现， 市场交投氛围较前期有所转弱，究其原因在于部分煤价已涨至一定高位，下游对高价煤资源恐高情绪渐 显，采购偏向谨慎，煤价出现小幅的回落；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差124；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：节日期间 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期国家能源局将对部分超能力生产煤矿进行核查，焦煤供应缩减预期较强。随着多地企 业对焦炭价格进行二轮提涨，下游情绪继续高涨，部分贸易商投机需求旺盛，叠加焦钢企业采购原料煤 数量增加，矿方多新增订单，整体出货情况尚可，场地库存消耗无几，炼焦煤需求阶段性向好；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价970，基差-78.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：成材价格上涨，带动焦 ...

焦煤： 6、预期：近期下游焦钢企业及贸易商对原料煤采购积极，对一些跌幅较大的性价比较好的煤种加快采 购，加之偏强运行，市场看涨预期增强。然焦煤成本的上升，持续挤压焦企利润，焦企考虑到利润因素 对原料煤仍压价采购，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：部分整改煤矿开始复产，区域内供应有增加预期。现下市场交易较为活跃，焦企采购积极 性有所提升，矿方询价增多，出货顺畅，市场情绪良好，竞拍成交价普遍出现上涨；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价920，基差23；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-9） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿生产基本平稳，个别煤矿停产，影响有限。钢焦博弈持续，焦炭第二轮涨价搁浅，影 响焦煤市场情绪转弱，近日贸易商等中间环节加快出货，焦企对原料煤采购节奏放缓，煤矿新签订单情 况一般，部分地区煤矿库存出现累积，焦煤价格承压下调；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差206；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存782.5万吨，港口库存324.8万吨，独立焦企库存819.8万吨，总样本库存1927.1万吨， 较上周减少24.4万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦企第二轮提涨落地困难，但目前下游利润尚在，开 ...