美联储利率调整

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金荣中国:美经济数据好于市场预期,金价扩大回落加剧震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 01:57
Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on September 18, with an opening price of $3684.11 per ounce, a high of $3704.51, a low of $3627.92, and a closing price of $3641.27 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 was reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [2] - This marks the largest decline in initial claims in nearly four years, indicating that companies are still inclined to retain employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both labor supply and demand [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with the lowest point reaching $3627 during the trading session, followed by a slight recovery to close at $3643 [8] - The daily chart indicates a small bearish candle, suggesting a potential top formation, while the short-term indicators are showing a downward trend [8] - The hourly chart reflects a bearish sentiment, with prices stabilizing below key moving averages, indicating a cautious trading approach [8] Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be initiated at $2627 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a profit target above $3640 [9] - For conservative traders, a buy position can be initiated at $3612 with similar stop loss and profit target parameters [10] - For short positions, aggressive entry can be at $3658 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target below $3647, while a more conservative entry can be at $3668 with a target below $3655 [10]
CME“美联储观察”:美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为8.1% 降息25个基点的概率为91.9%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 22:31
据CME"美联储观察",美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为8.1%,降息25个基点的概率为91.9%。 (文章来源:新华财经) ...
Markets didn't know which way to go after Wednesday's Fed rate cut. Expect more volatility ahead.
MarketWatch· 2025-09-17 20:49
Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts is characterized by volatility, indicating uncertainty among investors regarding the central bank's messaging [1] Market Reaction - Investors appeared confused about the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent interest-rate cuts, leading to significant market volatility [1]
Fed shows doubt about multiple rate cuts to end the year
Youtube· 2025-09-17 20:02
分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant disagreement among its members regarding the future outlook, with seven members favoring either one more cut or no cuts, while nine members support two additional cuts [2][5][7] - The current economic environment presents a two-sided risk, complicating the decision-making process for policymakers, as typically weak labor markets coincide with low inflation and strong labor markets raise inflation concerns [4][7] - The Fed Chair indicated that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, emphasizing the need to assess incoming data before making further cuts [3][6][7] 分组2 - The futures market appears to be pricing in two additional rate cuts, reflecting investor sentiment about the Fed's future actions [5][6] - There is a level of uncertainty reintroduced into the market, as the Fed Chair acknowledged the lack of clear paths forward, which may affect investor confidence [7][11] - The Fed is facing unprecedented challenges on both sides of its mandate, indicating a complex economic landscape that requires careful navigation [9][10][11]
The Fed, The Dollar, And The Next Gold Crash
Forbes· 2025-09-17 14:05
Group 1 - Gold has recently reached approximately $3,700 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts are forecasting potential targets of $4,000 and even $5,000 for gold prices [2] - Historical trends indicate that gold is not immune to sharp downturns, raising concerns about a potential market crash [2][8] Group 2 - Historical instances of gold crashes include significant declines after peaks, such as a drop of nearly 65% from $850 in 1980 to below $300 by 1985 [3] - Another example is the decline of over 35% from nearly $1,920 in 2011 to approximately $1,200 by late 2013 [4] - During the pandemic, gold peaked at $2,070 in August 2020 but fell back below $1,700 by early 2021, representing an 18% drop [5] Group 3 - Current gold prices have incorporated an ideal scenario, but signs of potential trouble include a "hawkish cut" from the Fed, a stronger dollar, speculative overheating, and a potential pause in central bank purchases [7][9] - A 20-25% correction could bring gold prices down to $2,800-$3,000 per ounce, while a more severe 35-40% crash could test levels around $2,200-$2,400 per ounce [9]
摩根大通:今夜美联储存在三个尾部风险!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-17 10:02
摩根大通:9月美联储 存在三个尾部风险! 摩根大通为9月美联储利率决议给出五种不同的情景。 低,维持利率不变也缺乏条件,降息25个基点成为大 在于偏鹰还是偏鸽。若偏鹰,可能削弱美股涨幅;若伽 入动力。极端情况下,加息或50基点降息仍是尾部风险 C 金十数据 2025-09-17制图 Q JIN10.COM 看美联储,到金十,立即下载金十数据APP>> | 美联储利率预测 | 視點 | 数据解读 | | --- | --- | --- | | 加息 | 1% | 第一个尾部风险,概率接近于零但不为 零。核心CPI环比连续3个月上涨,可能 会让美联储保持观望,但不足以让加息 | | | | 成为实际威胁,尤其是在关税态度可能 软化的情况下 | | | | 另一个尾部风险,这需要同时出现更强 的非农以及更高的CPI,但实际上都没 | | 维持利率不变 | 4% | 有,再加上鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲 | | | | 话,维持利率不变很可能其反作用 | | | | 关键在于声明和鲍威尔是偏鹰还是偏 | | | | 鸽。通胀虽然还在涨,但增速放缓,同 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 比处于2%-3 ...
There is value in the bond market at the end of the curve, says Wellington's Brij Khurana
Youtube· 2025-09-16 21:40
Well, joining me now is Bridge Corano, Wellington fixed income portfolio manager. Bridge, what do you expect to really move the bond market tomorrow. I mean, we assuming we get the quarter point everybody expects there's going to be a lot of contention among uh the Fed voters, possibly more than we've ever had.>> Yeah, no doubt. I mean, I think we are definitely going to get that 25 basis point cut. Um I think there will probably be three descents to your point asking for 50 basis points.What the market's r ...
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq muted with Fed rate cut seen as done deal
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-11 22:37
US stocks hit pause on Friday as Wall Street took stock of the US economy from a lofty, record-setting perch ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated decision on interest rates next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged down over 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped below the flat line. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) inched up 0.1%. All three major indexes rallied to records on Thursday, with the Dow closing above 46,000 for the first time. Investors have taken in seve ...
Stock Futures Climb Ahead of Crunch CPI Report
Barrons· 2025-09-11 09:43
Group 1 - Stock futures are rising, indicating investor optimism ahead of key inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased by 38 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures also gained 0.1% [2] - The S&P 500 index reached a new record on Wednesday, reflecting strong market performance [2] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the August consumer price index report, expected to show a rise in inflation to 2.9% from 2.7% in July [2]
标普500指数:今晚CPI或影响美联储利率路径
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 05:14
Group 1 - Wall Street expects the August CPI to show rising inflation, but it is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in September [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate after the Fed meeting on September 17, with potential further cuts in October and December [1] - Economists surveyed predict the year-on-year CPI for August to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The current economic data is insufficient to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in September, but hawkish data could alter the easing path for October and December [1] - Several banks have adjusted their rate forecasts, with Barclays predicting three cuts this year and two in 2026 [1] - The Atlanta Fed model indicates a strong GDP growth rate of 3% for the third quarter [1]