Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, etc. It shows the price movements of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, and analyzes the impact of factors like weather, export data, and macro - economic indicators on the market [1][5][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. The price changes of major currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal rainfall and higher temperatures from July 20 - 24. Some areas in the US Midwest have received rainfall, and the overall weather conditions are favorable for crops [5][7]. - **Palm Oil**: ITS and AmSpec data show a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15. However, UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that exports may increase in July, and production is expected to rise while inventory may remain stable [8][9]. - **Soybeans**: NOPA data shows that US soybean crushing in June was 185.709 million bushels. Anec predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in July. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed have decreased compared to last year [11][12]. - **Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index continued to rise, with freight rates for all types of ships increasing [13]. - **Trading Volume and Inventory**: On July 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. The port inventories of imported soybeans and soybean oil increased [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%. US economic data such as CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing Index, etc., are released. OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecasts. The economic data of the Eurozone shows positive trends [17][18]. - **Domestic**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar on July 15. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan. China's Q2 GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and other economic indicators such as retail sales and industrial added - value were also released [20]. Fund Flows - On July 15, the futures market had a net inflow of 11.281 billion yuan, with 4.329 billion yuan in commodity futures (including net outflows in agricultural futures and net inflows in chemical, black - series, and metal futures) and 6.952 billion yuan in stock index futures [23]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is 6.7% [1] - In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 31.1%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 64.4% and a 50 basis point cut is 4.5% [1] Group 2 - For the interest rate forecast on July 31, 2025, the probability of rates being between 4.00%-4.25% is 6.7% [3] - On September 18, 2025, the probability of rates being between 4.00%-4.25% increases to 64.4% [3] - By October 30, 2025, the probability of rates being between 3.75%-4.00% is 44.8% [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $90, or 0.9%, closing at $9,864.5 per ton, after reaching a three-month high of $10,020.5 earlier in the week [1] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $15 to $2,590.0, zinc down $26.5 to $2,724.0, lead down $5.5 to $2,058.5, nickel down $161 to $15,290.0, and tin down $146 to $33,702.0 [2][6][7][8][9][10] - Market sentiment is cautious as major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and India, continue negotiations with the U.S. regarding trade agreements, with potential tariffs looming [3] Group 2 - The U.S. job report showed an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - The market anticipates a 95.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting, up from 76.2% earlier [4] - Guinea's bauxite exports are projected to increase by 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record 99.8 million tons [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, along with important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and international and domestic news. It also presents data on capital flows and currency exchange rates, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD's September palm oil contract was 4078.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.74% and an overnight decrease of 0.37% [1]. - Brent's September contract on ICE closed at 68.85, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 0.20% overnight [1]. - NYMEX's August crude oil contract closed at 67.18, down 0.52% from the previous day and up 0.36% overnight [1]. - CBOT's November soybean contract closed at 1048.25, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean meal contract closed at 292.40, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.51% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean oil contract closed at 54.54, down 0.96% from the previous day and down 0.33% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 97.08, up 0.34%. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1523, down 0.03%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2219, up 0.61%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16218, up 0.42%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.4176, down 0.57%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1231.000, up 0.20%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2720, down 0.03% [1]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE's September 2025 palm oil contract, the spot price in North China was 8690, with a basis of 220 and a daily basis change of - 30; in East China, the spot price was 8570, with a basis of 100 and a daily basis change of - 100; in South China, the spot price was 8490, with a basis of 20 and a daily basis change of 0 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean oil contract, the spot price in Shandong was 8150, with a basis of 146 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 8210, with a basis of 206 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Guangdong, the spot price was 8230, with a basis of 226 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Tianjin, the spot price was 8140, with a basis of 136 and a daily basis change of - 48 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean meal contract, the spot price in Shandong was 2830, with a basis of - 129 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 2810, with a basis of - 149 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Guangdong, the spot price was 2820, with a basis of - 139 and a daily basis change of 3; in Tianjin, the spot price was 2920, with a basis of - 39 and a daily basis change of - 7 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans was 469 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 230 cents per bushel. The CNF quote for Argentine soybeans was 458 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 200 cents per bushel [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In the US soybean - producing states from July 8th to July 12th, temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be above normal [4]. - In the US Midwest, there will be local to scattered showers early next week, with temperatures near to above normal. The western region will have local to sporadic showers from Friday to Sunday, with temperatures above normal on Friday - Saturday and near to above normal on Sunday. The eastern region will be mainly dry on Friday, with local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Sunday and temperatures above normal from Friday to Sunday. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be local to scattered showers from Monday to Thursday next week, and it will be dry on Friday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Monday to Friday next week [6]. International Supply - Demand - The expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous period. Production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease from May. Exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase from May [1][8]. - Indonesia will revoke the license of a palm oil plantation operating illegally in a national park [9]. - As of the week ending July 1st, about 8% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought, down from 12% the previous week and 9% last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean export sales increased by 701,400 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 462,400 tons, up 15% from the previous week and 62% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean export sales increased by 239,000 tons. US soybean exports were 251,600 tons, down 5% from the previous week and 27% from the four - week average [10]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean meal export sales increased by 703,600 tons, higher than expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 306,200 tons, up 226% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 397,400 tons. US soybean meal exports were 238,300 tons, down 15% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average [11]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, up 193% from the previous week and 156% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 0 tons. US soybean oil exports were 5,900 tons, up 2% from the previous week and down 55% from the four - week average [12]. - From June 29th to July 5th, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 3.7051 million tons, up from 2.6042 million tons last week; soybean meal exports are expected to be 623,800 tons, up from 514,900 tons last week; and corn exports are expected to be 347,200 tons, up from 200,400 tons last week [12]. - As of the week ending June 29th, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to June 29th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase from the same period last year. As of June 29th, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [13]. - Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, a 10 - million - ton increase from the previous year [13]. - On July 3rd, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 9,299 tons, a decrease of 8,834 tons (49%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 288,800 tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.48%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous day [15]. - On July 3rd, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.17, a 0.21 - point decrease from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.13, a 0.24 - point decrease from the previous day. The average pork price in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 20.29 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from the previous day; beef was 63.67 yuan/kg, unchanged; mutton was 59.20 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease; eggs were 7.07 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease; and white - striped chickens were 17.18 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase [15]. International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 33%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3% [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 28th was 233,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [18]. - The US's seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 [18]. - The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% [18]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 [18]. - The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 52.9, slightly lower than the expected 53.1 [18]. - The US factory orders in May increased by 8.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [18]. - The US trade deficit in May was 71.5 billion dollars, slightly higher than the expected 71 billion dollars [18]. - The US has lifted export restrictions on three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [18]. - Trump's tax - cut bill passed the House of Representatives. The bill will increase the US debt by 3.4 trillion dollars and is expected to be signed by Trump on July 4th [19]. - The final value of the eurozone's services PMI in June was 50.5, higher than the expected 50 [20]. Domestic News - On July 3rd, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1523, a 23 - point decrease (RMB appreciation) [21]. - On July 3rd, the People's Bank of China conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan on the day [21]. - China's Caixin Services PMI in June was 50.6, lower than the expected 50.9 [21]. - From January to May 2025, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 3.25436 trillion yuan, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, a 15.1% increase, and imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, a 2.7% increase. The service trade deficit was 447.62 billion yuan, a 135.22 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous year [21]. 05 Capital Flows On July 3rd, 2025, the futures market saw a net capital inflow of 9.344 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 7.67 billion yuan (including a 187 - million - yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, a 1.053 - billion - yuan inflow in chemical futures, a 1.376 - billion - yuan inflow in black - series futures, and a 5.053 - billion - yuan inflow in metal futures). Stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 1.674 billion yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 8890 yuan/kg, with a recent price of 8885 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.21% increase [1][4] - The highest price reached today was 8930 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 8849 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1][4] - Resistance levels for silver TD are identified between 8956-8966 yuan/kg, with support levels at 8626-8636 yuan/kg [4] Group 2 - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, close to historical lows, showcasing economic resilience [3] - The employment figures suggest that disruptions from inflation concerns and potential economic downturns have been less severe than expected [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3%, with a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K in June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised May figure of +144K [1][2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, resulting in a total increase of +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The government sector contributed significantly to job gains in June with +73K, while the private sector saw mixed results, including a loss of -56K in Professional/Business Services [4][5] - Healthcare added +39K jobs and Social Assistance +19K, but traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying any cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market concerns [7][8] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, aligning with expectations and showing improvement from the record low of -$138 billion in March [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated that he still expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year, and there's much uncertainty about how tariffs affect prices. In terms of supply - demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, while domestic port inventories slightly increased; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of steel mills and hot metal output increased, and the demand for iron ore remained supported. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are mixed, but the reduction of long - position orders in the mainstream is greater, and the short - term market may face pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward with an increasing green bar. Operationally, sell on rebounds and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 708.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan; the position volume was 654,854 lots, down 13,897 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 55,405 lots, up 2,027 lots. - The DCE warehouse receipts of I were 3,300.00 lots, up 500.00 lots. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 93.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.87 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 751 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 666 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 43 yuan, up 5 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 94.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.65, up 0.05. - The estimated import cost was 776 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 3,357.60 million tons, down 149.10 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,413.50 million tons, down 359.40 million tons. - The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 million tons, down 88.77 million tons. - The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.00 million tons, down 501.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. - The daily output of 266 mines was 41.33 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 65.69%, up 2.14 percentage points. - The inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines was 53.36 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the BDI index was 1,489.00, down 32.00. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 20.69 US dollars/ton, down 0.47 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 6.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. - The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.61%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.94%, up 0.07 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.54%, up 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.39%, down 0.99 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,882.3 million tons. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,413.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,363.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,217.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term technical patterns show weakness and pressure, but the daily line has regained the $3300 level. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of this support. The next support is at $3250, and if it breaks, it may further decline to the previous low of $3120. The resistance is in the $3330 - 3350 area. London silver should focus on the support around $35.3, with strong support in the $34.5 - 35 area, and resistances at $36.2 and $36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rebounded after a decline. Among surrounding assets, the US stock market rose, the US Treasury yield declined, the US dollar index dropped, and Bitcoin fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3315 per ounce, up 0.83%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $36.33 per ounce, down 0.11%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.58 yuan per gram, down 0.62%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54% [2]. - In terms of trade tariffs, Trump said there was no need to extend the July 9 deadline and would set tariffs for each country, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU was willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but sought exemptions for key industries. Canada made concessions and cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada would resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21. South Korea's top priority was to obtain a tariff extension [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.8%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 60.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.7% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 952.53 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14826.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1299.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. The US Senate is preparing to vote on the Trump administration's "Great Beauty" bill, aiming to pass it before July 4. On Tuesday at 21:30, central bank governors from major economies will have a panel discussion. On Friday, due to the US Independence Day holiday, COMEX precious metals trading will end at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 767.58 yuan per gram, up 1.18 yuan or 0.15%; SGX gold TD is at 764.15 yuan per gram, up 1.07 yuan or 0.14%; CME gold main contract is at $3315 per ounce, up $28.9 or 0.88%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 30 yuan or 0.34%; SGX silver TD is at 8728 yuan per kilogram, down 20 yuan or 0.23%; CME silver main contract is at $36.33 per ounce, up $0.165 or 0.46%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.43 yuan per gram, up 0.11 yuan or 3.31%; SHFE - TD silver is at 34 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan or 91.3%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2469, up 0.3828 or 0.42% [7]. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 18237 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1152.3287 tons, down 0.0042 tons. SHFE gold position is 155821 lots, up 25999 lots or 20.03%; SPDR gold position is 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons or - 0.24%. SHFE silver inventory is 1299.756 tons, up 4.093 tons or 0.32%; CME silver inventory is 15542.2557 tons, up 18.7987 tons or 0.12%; SGX silver inventory is 1357.845 tons, down 21.03 tons or - 1.53%. SHFE silver position is 277702 lots, down 37746 lots or - 11.97%; SLV silver position is 14826.612625 tons, down 39.5722 tons or - 0.27% [16]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 96.8103, down 0.4513 or - 0.46%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.16, down 0.0043 or - 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44094.77 points, up 275.5 points or 0.63%. WTI crude oil spot is at $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 or - 0.63%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9878 per ton, down $1 or - 0.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.24%, down 0.05 or - 1.17%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.95, down 0.05 or - 2.5%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52, down 0.04 or - 7.14% [21][23].

Group 1: Gold Market - Investors are closely monitoring trade negotiations as the deadline for Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, with indications that the negotiations may not be as severe as in April [2] - The proposed "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House on May 22 and narrowly passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28, with modifications requiring another House vote; the CBO predicts a $4.5 trillion revenue reduction and a $3.3 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit by 2034 [2] - Technically, gold has been in a correction phase since April 22, with a potential rebound if it stabilizes above $3,300, targeting $3,360 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite a verbal ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with Trump threatening further military action against Iran and Iran halting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 80%, with a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, increasing market bets on future rate cuts, which could boost oil demand [5] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, leading to potential oversupply in the oil market; if global economic conditions improve, it may bolster market confidence [5] - Technically, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with resistance at $67 and a potential drop to $60 if prices fall below $64 [5] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a strong upward trend, breaking the highest price since July 18, 2024, but caution is advised against chasing further gains [7] - Copper prices have been fluctuating since early April, with a potential shift in trend; support is noted at $4.88 and resistance at $5.06 [7]