Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that overtime ships have intensified the oversupply of capacity during the off - season, leading to an overall weak and volatile market. The Maersk's late - session cabin opening price and the less - than - expected tariff situation have also affected the market [7]. - The spot price has peaked, with the quotation in early August starting to weaken and driving the late - August price down. The 10 - contract's main focus is on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFI - Mediterranean, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe all showed declines, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 11.99% [4]. - **EC Contracts**: The EC2506, EC2508, and EC2604 showed increases in price, while EC2510 and EC2512 showed decreases. In terms of positions, EC2410 increased by 1055, while others decreased to varying degrees [4][5]. Market News - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the temporarily suspended reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [6]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on copper products and their derivatives starting from August 1 [6]. - Trump hopes to change the Gaza policy to a comprehensive agreement to solve all problems at once [6]. - Japan's economic and fiscal policy minister will urge the US to implement the auto - tariff agreement and get Trump to sign the relevant executive order [6]. Strategy - Short the 10 - contract on rallies (gradually take profits as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market of shipping derivatives shows a pattern of mixed trends with some indices declining and some contracts rising. The spot price of shipping is expected to peak at the end of July and gradually decline, and the 10 - contract focuses on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1647, 1304, 2142, 1301, 3612, and 2079 respectively, with previous values of 1699, 1348, 2219, 1318, 3862, and 2068 respectively, and the corresponding percentage changes are - 3.30%, - 3.23%, - 3.50%, - 1.31%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 2316 and 2418 respectively, with previous values of 2400 and 2528 respectively, and the percentage changes are - 3.50% and - 4.35% [3] Contracts - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1514.2, 2139.0, 1468.7, 1738.0, 1532.0, and 1386.1 respectively, with previous values of 1504.9, 2111.0, 1460.0, 1735.0, 1521.3, and 1370.0 respectively, and the percentage changes are 0.62%, 1.33%, 0.60%, 0.17%, 0.70%, and 1.18%. The current values of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 776, 5597, 54874, 8505, 4301, and 5267 respectively, with previous values of 762, 5926, 50726, 8131, 4328, and 5107 respectively, and the changes are 14, - 329, 4148, 374, - 27, and 160 [3] Month - Spread - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - spreads are - 269.3, 206.0, and 351.9 respectively, with previous values of - 275.0, 213.7, and 365.0 respectively, and the changes are 5.7, - 7.7, and - 13.1 [3] Market Situation - **Market Trend**: The market shows a pattern of mixed trends. The near - month contracts are affected by the continuous decline of the shipping company's price opening in early August, and the US - China and EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support. The 08 contract had a limit - down opening on Wednesday morning, possibly due to the exchange's forced liquidation of over - position parts. On Thursday, the near - month contracts were strong due to the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff negotiation [5] Spot Price - **Price Forecast**: The spot price is basically confirmed to peak at the end of July. The shipping company's price opening in early August continues the price in late July but gradually decreases. The shipping demand and loading rate at the end of July are good, but the high capacity deployment in early August weakens the effect of building a stockpiling pool. It is expected that the spot price will peak at the end of July and early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline slope will increase [6] Strategy - **Investment Strategy**: Short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [7]

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value of 1862 [2] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1343, down 1.92% from the previous value of 1369 [2] - SCFI - US West has a current value of 2089, down 18.97% from the previous value of 2578 [2] - SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1557, down 3.83% from the previous value of 1619 [2] - SCFI - US East has a current value of 4124, down 12.57% from the previous value of 4717 [2] - SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2101, up 3.50% from the previous value of 2030 [2] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2258, up 6.36% from the previous value of 2123 [2] - SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2869, down 3.89% from the previous value of 2985 [2] Group 2: Shipping Contracts Data - For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding price changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1342.1, up 0.72% from the previous value of 1332.5 [2] - Regarding contract positions, such as EC2606 position, EC2508 position etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes in quantity are provided. For instance, EC2606 position has a current value of 471, up from the previous value of 430 [2] - For month - spreads like 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes are given. For example, the 10 - 12 month - spread has a current value of 621.4, down 1.1 from the previous value of 622.5 [2] Group 3: Industry News - A vessel was attacked off the Red Sea coast of Yemen on Sunday, with characteristics typical of Houthi militants. The vessel was hit by a maritime drone and also attacked by small boats [2] - Some EU car manufacturers and governments are seeking a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. If no deal is reached by July 9, EU exports to the US may face a 50% tariff increase [6] - Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks in Qatar ended without results [7] - CMA added an overtime ship on the 11th and still has available space [7] - MSK added a new overtime ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in wk31 [8] - There is congestion at East China ports, and MSC adjusted its port calls [9] - Loading rates on European routes were good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10] - The OA Alliance's CES route suspended two sailings, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [11] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The shipping market showed a strong - side oscillation. The recent strength was due to tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. Forwarding of goods from the Far East to the US will continue for some time, which is positive for August [12] - The central price in the second week of July was about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quotes increased slightly, and the 08 contract performed strongly [12] - The market is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations. The shipping volume during the previous peak season was mostly consumed during the tariff suspension period, and the effect of price increases in August may not be optimistic [12] - The strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. The 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract due to less shipping capacity in wk28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in wk1 of July, and expected congestion in Europe [12]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The market of shipping derivatives shows an overall upward trend, but with certain fluctuations. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation results exceeded expectations, the contracts initially rose rapidly and then entered a phase of fundamental game and oscillation. As the pricing for June becomes clearer, the market is shifting towards trading the more certain 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts is narrowing. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions and arbitrage [9]. 2. Key Data 2.1 Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) | 1586 | 1479 | 7.21% | | China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) | 1107 | 1105 | 0.23% | | SCFI - US West | 3275 | 3091 | 5.95% | | SCFIS - US West | 1720 | 1446 | 18.92% | | SCFI - US East | 4284 | 4069 | 5.28% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1317 | 1154 | 14.12% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1247 | 1265 | - 1.44% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 2328 | 2082 | 11.82% | [5] 2.2 Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) Contracts | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2506 | 1808.0 | 1773.0 | 1.97% | | EC2508 | 2131.0 | 1949.5 | 9.31% | | EC2510 | 1392.4 | 1349.4 | 3.19% | | EC2512 | 1570.3 | 1526.0 | 2.90% | | EC2602 | 1400.0 | 1372.3 | 2.02% | | EC2604 | 1239.0 | 1222.8 | 1.32% | [5] 2.3 Contract Positions | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2506 Position | 12716 | 15946 | - 3230 | | EC2508 Position | 46578 | 43765 | 2813 | | EC2510 Position | 24224 | 23149 | 1075 | | EC2512 Position | 4409 | 4392 | 17 | | EC2602 Position | 2743 | 2824 | - 81 | | EC2604 Position | 3199 | 3070 | 129 | [5] 2.4 Month - to - Month Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 10 - 12 | 738.6 | 600.1 | 138.5 | | 12 - 2 | - 177.9 | - 176.6 | - 1.3 | | 12 - 4 | 331.3 | 303.2 | 28.1 | [5] 3. Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6]. - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - A Palestinian official said Hamas agreed to the Gaza cease - fire proposal put forward by US Middle East Envoy Witkoff, but an Israeli official refuted it [8]. - On May 28, the US International Trade Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority. However, the ruling does not affect tariffs on cars, auto parts, steel or aluminum [8]. - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1 [8]. 4. Spot Market - The average price of May spot goods was still between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to the first half of May. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation news and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines collectively tried to raise the freight rate on the European route in June to 3200 - 3300 $/FEU. Some airlines adjusted their prices, and PI added an empty flight at the end of June [9]. 5. Futures Market - After the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations, the contracts rose rapidly to fill the "Trump gap" and then entered an oscillation phase. As the pricing for June becomes clearer, the market is trading the more certain 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts is narrowing [9]. 6. Strategy - Long positions and arbitrage can gradually take profit [10]