投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 供应减量，双硅低位震荡 ——铁合金周报20250428 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F03099603 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0020978 需求：成材周产量微增 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-10 9-22 10-4 10-16 10-28 11-9 11-21 12-3 12-15 12-27 硅铁周消费量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the prices of silicomanganese (SM) and ferrosilicon (SF) are oscillating downward. The fundamentals of both SM and SF offer limited support, and production cuts are needed to alleviate the supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the prices of both are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production reduction and shutdown situations in the main production areas [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In April 2025, the prices of both SM and SF oscillated downward, with the decline of SF futures prices being greater than that of SM. The closing price of the SM main contract on April 25 was 5,796 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.51%; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,640 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 5.56% [8][10]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The decline of spot prices in Ningxia region was relatively narrow. For SM, the monthly price decline in various regions ranged from 180 - 350 yuan/ton; for SF, the monthly price decline in different regions was between 150 - 250 yuan/ton [11][14]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both SM and SF oscillated stronger. For example, from April 18 to 25, the weekly increase of SM01 basis was 104 yuan/ton, and that of SF05 basis was 58 yuan/ton [16][19]. 3.4 Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of SM decreased by 4 yuan/ton month - on - month, and that of SF decreased by 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spread between SF and SM (SF - SM) decreased by 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][27]. 3.5 Production Costs - The production cost of SM decreased across the board. For example, the cost in the northern region decreased by 298.7 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production cost of SF also decreased, with the cost in Ningxia decreasing by 132 yuan/ton month - on - month [30]. 3.6 Production Profits - The immediate production profit of SM increased month - on - month, while that of SF decreased month - on - month. For instance, the production profit of SM in the northern region increased by 53.67 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the production profit of SF in Gansu decreased by 219 yuan/ton month - on - month [31][32]. 3.7 Manganese Silicon (SM) 3.7.1 Supply - The weekly output of SM continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. As of April 25, the weekly output was 186,060 tons, with a daily average output of 26,580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. The operating rate of SM production enterprises also continued to decline [33][36]. 3.7.2 Demand - The weekly demand for SM increased slightly month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline was still significant. The demand on April 25 was 126,749 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The production of rebar increased year - on - year, but its proportion in the total output of the five major steel products oscillated weakly [41]. 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample SM enterprises increased month - on - month, and the total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts exceeded 650,000 tons. As of April 25, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 181,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,200 tons. The available days of SM inventory in steel mills decreased [51][54]. 3.7.4 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore was at an absolute low level, but the shipping volume gradually increased. In April, the shipping volume increased by 1.18 million tons month - on - month. The price of manganese ore continued to decline, providing limited cost support [58][60]. 3.7.5 Options - The historical volatility of SM options gradually recovered from a low level [65]. 3.8 Ferrosilicon (SF) 3.8.1 Supply - The weekly output of SF oscillated downward. As of April 25, the weekly output was 98,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.70%. The operating rate of SF production enterprises also decreased [70][73]. 3.8.2 Demand - The weekly demand for SF increased slightly month - on - month. The demand on April 25 was 20,560.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. The output of magnesium ingots increased significantly in March, and the current price continued to rise [82][86]. 3.8.3 Cost - The price of semi - coke small materials remained relatively stable this month, and the price of oxidized iron scale decreased by 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [87][90]. 3.8.4 Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample SF enterprises decreased month - on - month but remained at a medium level in the same period of history. The available days of SF inventory in steel mills decreased. As of April 25, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 83,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,200 tons [6][91]. 3.8.5 Options - The historical volatility of SF options recovered from a low level [98].