锰矿新瓶旧酒，硅铁供需偏 紧 铁铁铁铁铁 2026/2/27 作者：尹艺瑾 交易咨询证号：Z0023616 联系方式：13752670838 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 锰硅 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周盘面剧烈拉升，价格大幅上行。南非关税传言刺激盘面大幅拉升，锰矿库存中性水平，现货价格坚挺，市 场对于后续发运情况有所担忧。基本面来看，硅锰仍处供需过剩状态，高产量使得锰矿价格难有大幅下降空间， | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 电力价格上行，化工焦波动较小，整体生产成本上行。春节假期结束，下游钢厂陆续进入复产周期，双硅需求 | | | | 量将逐步恢复。策略方面建议关注双硅价差，单边方面，盘面快速拉涨后谨慎追多，可逐步止盈。 | | 月差 | 偏弱 | 截至2月26日，锰硅5-9月差-48元/吨，持续低位震荡。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 北方产区货源有限，北方少量现货报价05合约下浮220-350区间。现货市场工厂报价情绪低迷，大多数工厂意 | | | | 愿维持年前报价，观望为主。河钢2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is bearish. The weekly price fluctuated sharply and returned to the level at the beginning of the week. The weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased, demand declined slightly, and the oversupply situation was difficult to improve. The cost of downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling was completed, but the ore price remained firm. After the Spring Festival, there was still an upward expectation for manganese ore spot due to the increase in foreign - market costs. The coking coal and coke market fluctuated violently, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. The weekly price fluctuated sharply and returned to the beginning - of - week level. Before the Spring Festival, the market price was expected to remain stable with limited adjustment. Currently, the supply - demand situation of 75 ferrosilicon was better than that of 72. The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, the demand from steel mills declined, the production of magnesium metal continued to rise, and the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The price difference between 75 and 72 ferrosilicon continued to widen to a high level. The price of semi - coke remained stable, and attention should be paid to the progress of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Ore - **Inventory**: The total port inventory of manganese ore was 4.357 million tons, showing a slight continuous increase week - on - week. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 3.325 million tons, still lower than the same period last year; Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased slightly to 1.027 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Inventory by Variety**: In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore was 2.173 million tons, showing a slight increase week - on - week; the inventory of Gabon ore was 0.194 million tons, showing a slight decrease week - on - week and much lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore was 0.528 million tons, continuing to increase and higher than the same period last year [18]. - **Port Price**: The price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 36.3 yuan/ton - degree. Traders' willingness to offer discounts before the Spring Festival decreased, and some quotes increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. As the holiday approached, market merchants gradually closed for the holiday [22]. Manganese Silicon - **Production**: As of February 6, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 191,000 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14,340 tons/day; that in Ningxia decreased to 5,935 tons/day; that in Yunnan remained stable at 640 tons/day; that in Guizhou decreased to 1,680 tons/day; and that in Guangxi decreased to 1,630 tons/day [32]. - **Demand**: As of February 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 116,100 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.199 million tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly week - on - week [37]. - **Price**: The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5,650 yuan/ton, and that in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS was 5,920 yuan/ton [50]. - **Chemical Coke Price**: The price of chemical coke remained stable this week. As of February 5, the ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa were 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. - **Production Profit**: The immediate profit of silicon - manganese was low, and the loss of point - to - point profit narrowed slightly [57]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: As of February 5, the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of manganese silicon was - 48 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [62]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price fluctuated, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of February 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 207,800 tons [65]. Ferrosilicon - **Production**: As of February 6, the weekly production was 99,200 tons, showing a slight increase week - on - week. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,165 tons, in Qinghai was 1,310 tons, in Ningxia was 3,760 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,680 tons [76]. - **Demand**: - **Steel Mills**: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 18,500 tons, higher than the same period last year [81]. - **Magnesium Metal**: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port was 2,440 US dollars/ton; the market price was 16,450 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease week - on - week. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 20,671 tons, continuing to increase slightly. The magnesium metal market showed a weak pattern, and the market price of magnesium ingots still decreased slightly; the purchasing sentiment of end - user factories and traders was low, and even for small - quantity restocking orders, the inquiry prices continued to decline [88]. - **Export**: As of February 5, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,115 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,055 US dollars/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased month - on - month [97]. - **Raw Material Situation**: As of February 6, the quoted prices of semi - coke small materials in the mainstream regions remained stable. The current prices were 755 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 745 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale was 750 yuan/ton [106]. - **Production Profit**: As of February 6, the loss of point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon expanded slightly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 70, - 81, - 265, and - 599 yuan/ton respectively [120]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: As of February 5, the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon was - 62 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening week - on - week [122]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price fluctuated, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated slightly. As of February 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 42,300 tons [125]. Balance Sheet - **Manganese Silicon**: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand showed different trends. There were periods of oversupply and tight supply. The year - on - year cumulative growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [128]. - **Ferrosilicon**: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand also showed different trends, with periods of oversupply and tight supply. The year - on - year cumulative growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [129].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the sharp fluctuations in precious metals, the black - series commodities were generally bearish, but the two silicon alloys (silicon iron and silicon manganese) showed strong performance and their price centers rose [5][23] - From a fundamental perspective, the supply of silicon iron increased while demand decreased last week. Since the beginning of the year, the supply - demand situation has been stable, the manufacturer's inventory has slightly decreased, and with the expected increase in power prices in the production areas in the first quarter, the silicon iron spot market is relatively healthy, supporting a slight price rebound [5] - For silicon manganese, the supply and demand both decreased last week. The operating rate increased in Inner Mongolia and decreased in Ningxia, and the demand followed the weak performance of finished steel products. The alloy's fundamentals are relatively healthy [23] - Before the Spring Festival, the black - series commodities lack expected drivers. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese will maintain a volatile operation. With support in the short - term, but considering the approaching Spring Festival holiday, investors are advised to operate with light positions to prevent holiday risks [5][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Iron 3.1.1 Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 99,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%). The silicon iron output in January 2025 was 437,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%) [7] 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 18,500 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%). The weekly output of five major steel products was 819,900 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [9] 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 66,800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%). The steel mill inventory in January was 17.52 days (a month - on - month increase of 2.11 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 days) [11] 3.1.4 Cost - The price of semi - coke decreased slightly by 15 yuan/ton. The power price in major production areas remained unchanged. The cost of silicon iron in major production areas increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. The profit in Qinghai decreased by 0.30%, the profit in Ningxia decreased by 15.91%, and the profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 11.52% [15] 3.1.5 Basis - The silicon iron futures price was slightly at a discount. The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 8,270 (a week - on - week decrease of 290 and a year - on - year decrease of 7,039). The basis of the 03 contract in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62 yuan/ton [18] 3.1.6 Strategy - In the short - term, it will operate in a volatile manner. Before the festival, operate with light positions [5] 3.2 Manganese Silicon 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 191,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%). The national silicon manganese output in January was 854,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%) [27] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 116,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9%). The weekly output of five major steel products was 819,900 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29] 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 377,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 82.4%). The steel mill inventory in January was 17.48 days (a month - on - month increase of 1.96 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 days) [31] 3.2.4 Cost - The price of manganese ore was firm. The power price in major production areas was mostly stable, except for a 15.79% increase in Guizhou. The cost of silicon manganese in major production areas increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03% in most areas, and a 4.80% increase in Guizhou. The profit in major production areas decreased, with a 59.69% decrease in Guizhou [36] 3.2.5 Basis - The discount of the manganese silicon futures price narrowed. The number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 39,175 (a week - on - week increase of 1,262 and a year - on - year decrease of 44,121). The basis of the 05 contract in Inner Mongolia was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 [33] 3.2.6 Strategy - In the short - term, it will operate in a volatile manner. Before the festival, operate with light positions [23]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, in a loss situation, production is gradually decreasing, but producer inventories remain high, with limited fundamental support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and market sentiment and new round of steel tender pricing should be monitored [6][7]. - For silicon - iron, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Although cost support is strong, the upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, start - up conditions, and electricity price settlement [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price - The prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have decreased in resonance, and are at the lowest levels in recent years. From November 5th to November 28th, 2025, the manganese - silicon futures price dropped from 5,776 yuan/ton to 5,612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84%; the silicon - iron futures price dropped from 5,560 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% [11][13]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have declined. For example, in manganese - silicon, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and other regions decreased by 160 - 70 yuan/ton from October 31st to November 28th, 2025; in silicon - iron, the prices in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other regions decreased by 100 - 70 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has weakened. For example, on November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the SM01 basis of manganese - silicon decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the SF01 basis of silicon - iron decreased by 14 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3.4 Near - far Spread - The 1 - 5 spreads of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have strengthened slightly. On November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the 1 - 5 spread of manganese - silicon increased by 14 yuan/ton, and that of silicon - iron increased by 4 yuan/ton [23][26]. 3.5 Double - silicon Spread - The spread between silicon - iron and manganese - silicon (silicon - iron - silicon - manganese) decreased by 10 yuan/ton from November 6th to November 28th, 2025 [27]. 3.6 Production Cost - The production cost of silicon - iron has changed significantly, and the production costs in most regions (except Inner Mongolia) have strengthened. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production cost of silicon - iron in Gansu increased by 146 yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai increased by 386 yuan/ton [29][30]. 3.7 Production Profit - The immediate production profit of manganese - silicon has weakened, the production profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia has strengthened month - on - month, but the loss in most production areas has intensified. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production profit of manganese - silicon in the northern region decreased by 175.02 yuan/ton [31][35]. 3.8 Manganese - silicon Supply - The weekly output of manganese - silicon has declined and returned to the median level in recent years. The operating rates of manganese - silicon producers in Ningxia and Yunnan have dropped significantly. For example, from October 31st to November 28th, 2025, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased from 207,725 tons to 194,775 tons [36][39]. 3.9 Manganese - silicon Demand - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon is still at a low level in recent years, and the decline in crude steel production is obvious. For example, in October 2025, the crude steel output was 7199.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% [44][46]. 3.10 Manganese - silicon Cost - The price of manganese ore has increased slightly. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of Gabon manganese ore increased by 2.2 yuan/dry - ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [51][52]. 3.11 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore has remained stable. The inventory of Australian ore has decreased after reaching a phased high, and the inventory of Gabon manganese ore has decreased fluctuantly [54][57]. 3.12 Manganese - silicon Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased month - on - month, continuously hitting a new high in recent years. The available days of manganese - silicon inventory have increased slightly year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15,500 tons [61][68]. 3.13 Manganese - silicon Option - The historical volatility of manganese - silicon options is at a low level. The put - call ratio of the open interest/volume of manganese - silicon options fluctuates greatly, and the current ratio is at the median [69][72]. 3.14 Silicon - iron Supply - The weekly output of silicon - iron has continued to decline. In October 2025, the national silicon - iron output was 505,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons [75][83]. 3.15 Silicon - iron Demand - The demand for silicon - iron from steel mills is still at a low level. The output of magnesium ingots in October 2025 increased month - on - month, reaching a new high in recent years. The import volume of silicon - iron increased by 4.86% month - on - month in October 2025, and the export volume decreased by 36.14% [86][96]. 3.16 Silicon - iron Cost - The price of small - sized semi - coke has increased month - on - month. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi increased by 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% [97][99]. 3.17 Silicon - iron Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon - iron has decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute value is still high. The available days of silicon - iron inventory have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 9,530 tons [101][108]. 3.18 Silicon - iron Option - The put - call ratio of the open interest of silicon - iron options has decreased fluctuantly [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Silicon Manganese - This week, the silicon manganese market was generally weak, with the futures price fluctuating with the black series. In the fourth quarter, affected by seasonal factors, terminal demand weakened, steel prices were poor, and steel mills' pressure on silicon manganese prices was obvious. The spot price continued to decline, and the factory's shipment difficulty increased. The supply - demand was in a weak state, and the alloy factory's production pressure increased. The new production furnace this year may fall short of expectations. The manganese ore market in Tianjin Port was oscillating strongly, while that in Qinzhou Port was stable. [5][7] - The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, cost support and inventory pressure, and technical oscillations and fundamental changes. The recommended strategy for next week is mainly range operation, with futures testing short at 5850 - 5880 yuan/ton and testing long below 5700 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the arbitrage of the north - south spot price difference. [10] Silicon Iron - This week, the spot price of the main production area of silicon iron declined slightly, and the new round of steel mill tender prices showed mixed changes with a small adjustment range. The futures price of the main contract oscillated flat, and the futures - spot was basically at par. The supply pressure increased moderately, the cost support was strengthened, but the enterprise was still in a loss state and the inventory was high. The demand for steel was stable but without increment, and the non - steel and export sectors could not make up for the gap, and the winter storage had not started. [16] - The core logic is the game between cost support and loose supply - demand. The key lies in the price increase of semi - coke, the impact of cooling, winter storage, and production restrictions. The short - term strategy is to operate in the range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. [16] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Silicon Manganese Core Views and Strategy Recommendations Market Review - Supply: The operating rate in the southern main production area decreased, especially in Yunnan. In Inner Mongolia, there is room for the operating rate to decline. The factory's recent quotations are few, and the transactions are mainly based on the futures price. [7] - Demand: The output of the five major steel products decreased this week. Steel mills entered the maintenance stage, and the demand is expected to decline. The factory's inventory pressure is large, and the willingness of northern factories to reduce production is low. [7] Influence Factor Analysis - Macro: Neutral. [8] - Demand: Downward. The weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel types decreased by 2.71% week - on - week, and the national silicon manganese output decreased by 2.81% week - on - week. [8] - Supply: Upward. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the daily output decreased by 835 tons. [8] - Inventory: Downward. The inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises increased by 5000 tons. [8] - Basis: Neutral. The main basis was - 60 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 13.88% compared with the previous week. [8] - Cost and Profit: Upward. The cost support was strengthened, but the enterprise's loss increased. [8] Strategy Recommendation - Next week's strategy is mainly range operation. Futures test short at 5850 - 5880 yuan/ton and test long below 5700 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the north - south spot price difference arbitrage. Spot traders reduce inventory at high prices in the north and replenish inventory at low prices in the south. Production enterprises should do a good job in hedging or slow down production. [10] 02 Silicon Iron Core Views and Strategy Recommendations Market Review - Spot: The spot price in the main production area declined slightly. The new round of steel mill tender prices showed mixed changes with a small adjustment range, and the procurement volume maintained the rigid demand level. [16] - Futures: The main contract of silicon iron oscillated flat this week, with a trading range of 5518 - 5586 yuan/ton. [16] Influence Factor Analysis - Macro: Neutral. [19] - Demand: Upward. The inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 9.31% week - on - week. [19] - Supply: Downward. The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.18% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 0.80%. [19] - Inventory: Downward. The inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 9.31% week - on - week. [19] - Basis: Neutral. The basis was 274 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 45.99% compared with the previous week. [19] - Cost and Profit: Upward. The cost support was significantly strengthened, and the enterprise's loss amplitude narrowed but still did not get out of the loss state. [19] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term strategy is to operate in the range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. In the long - term, pay attention to the change of contradictions. The industrial side can use futures to hedge risks. [17] 03 Silicon Manganese Data Tracking and Analysis Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.21% week - on - week, the trading volume decreased by 40.51%, and the open interest increased by 1.33%. [23] - Spot: The southern and northern spot prices decreased by 0.89% and 0.71% respectively week - on - week. The basis decreased by 13.33%. [23] Market Conditions - The warehouse receipts decreased slightly this week, and the effective forecasts increased slightly. The production and operating rates were still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the intensified production reduction during the dry season. The steel mill's operating rate decreased slightly, and the demand for silicon manganese was reduced. The overall inventory was at a high level, and the pressure to reduce inventory still existed. The manganese ore inventory in ports increased slightly, and the import volume decreased significantly. The manganese element price was weakly stable in the short term, and the mainstream cost of raw materials was stable with general short - term support. [32][37][43][50] 04 Silicon Iron Data Tracking and Analysis Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 0.47% week - on - week, the trading volume decreased by 34.57%, and the open interest increased by 12.14%. [82] - Spot: The market price in Ningxia decreased by 1.72% week - on - week, and the trade price in Hebei increased by 0.90%. The basis decreased by 45.99%. [82] Market Conditions - The basis converged slightly. The trading volume on the disk was relatively active this week, and the open interest increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased, and attention was paid to the new round of steel tenders. The inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure. The cost decreased continuously this week, and the profit decline increased. [85][89][92][99][110][117]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing weak supply and demand, and price fluctuations are narrowing before the holiday. Since September, there have been few changes in the supply - demand fundamentals of the alloy market. The market lacks expectations and capital attention. In the short term, a wide - range oscillation is expected. Before the holiday, it is recommended to operate with light positions, and the industrial hedging strategy remains unchanged [4][23] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Silicon Iron 3.1.1 Supply - The production of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises reached 114,500 tons per week (a 1.2% increase from the previous week and a 4.5% increase year - on - year). In August 2025, the monthly production of silicon iron was 493,300 tons (a 10.43% increase from the previous month and a 7.42% increase year - on - year). The production rate stopped falling and production increased [6] 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 19,800 tons (a 1.4% increase from the previous week and a 2.8% increase year - on - year). The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.649 million tons (a 1.1% increase from the previous week and a 5.1% increase year - on - year), indicating that the demand from the steel industry has rebounded [9] 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 61,400 tons (a 3% decrease from the previous week and a 17.4% decrease year - on - year). The inventory days of steel mills in September were 15.52 days (an increase of 0.85 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.99 days year - on - year). The inventory of manufacturers decreased, but the decline rate slowed down [12] 3.1.4 Cost - The price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu increased from 660 to 700 yuan, a 6.06% increase; the price of oxidized iron scale in Hebei increased from 830 to 970 yuan, a 16.87% increase. The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia all increased by about 1.5% [16] 3.1.5 Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 17,628 (an increase of 1,163 from the previous week and an increase of 4,847 year - on - year). The basis of the 11 - contract of silicon iron in Ningxia was 20 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a slight premium [19] 3.1.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text 3.2 Manganese Silicon 3.2.1 Supply - The production of 121 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 206,000 tons per week (a 1.1% decrease from the previous week and a 17.4% increase year - on - year). In August, the national silicon - manganese production was 909,300 tons (a 10.9% increase from the previous month and a 7.4% increase year - on - year). The production decline widened, and the production rate decreased in the north and increased in the south [26] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 122,000 tons (a 0.8% increase from the previous week and a 6.9% increase year - on - year). The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.649 million tons (a 1.1% increase from the previous week and a 5.1% increase year - on - year). However, the rigid demand and speculative sentiment were weak, and the steel - related consumption continued to decline [28] 3.2.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of enterprises was 234,000 tons (a 17.5% increase from the previous week and a 55.3% increase year - on - year). The inventory days of steel mills in September were 15.93 days (an increase of 0.95 days from the previous month and an increase of 1.11 days year - on - year). The inventory of manufacturers continued to accumulate, and the pressure continued to rise [31] 3.2.4 Cost - Before the holiday, manganese ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Some raw materials such as semi - coke and manganese ore had small price changes, and the cost of silicon manganese in different regions also had corresponding minor adjustments [39] 3.2.5 Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 60,676 (a decrease of 764 from the previous week and a decrease of 65,302 year - on - year). The 01 - contract basis of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 202 yuan/ton, an 86 - yuan increase from the previous week. The futures market maintained a discount [35] 3.2.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron alloy market is experiencing a bottom - oscillating trend due to the game between high supply and cost support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Fundamental Situation - **Price Trends**: The report presents various price trend graphs, including the iron alloy main contract trends, spot market prices of 72%FeSi silicon iron in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi), silicon manganese spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi), and the basis trends of silicon iron and silicon manganese main - contract warehouse receipts in Inner Mongolia [8][10][14][17] - **Production and Supply**: Graphs show the production enterprise start - up rates of silicon iron and manganese silicon, monthly production volumes of silicon iron and manganese silicon in China, daily production volumes of crude steel and hot metal, and blast furnace capacity utilization rates [26][28][29][30] - **Inventory Status**: There are graphs depicting the silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories of alloy plants, the average available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon inventories in steel mills, and the warehouse receipt situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [41][51][43] - **Cost Factors**: The report includes price trends of raw materials such as blue charcoal small materials, Yinchuan chemical coke, electricity prices, global manganese ore shipments, manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port, and national manganese ore inventories. It also shows the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon [54][58][63][64][68] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is limited. The price centers of both have moved down month-on-month. In the short term, they are expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Supply - In August, manganese silicon production continued to increase, with weekly production rising for more than ten consecutive weeks. By the end of August, weekly production was 213,000 tons, a 1% week-on-week increase and a 17% year-on-year increase. The operating rates of major production areas all increased to varying degrees, with the overall operating rate in the north still relatively high, approaching 70% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - Crude steel production decreased significantly, while hot metal production remained stable. The weekly demand for manganese silicon from sample steel mills was basically flat week-on-week. Steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In August, the number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.98 days, a low level in the same period in recent years [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample enterprises decreased month-on-month and was basically the same year-on-year. By the end of August, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons in the latest week and a total decrease of 15,000 tons in August [5]. 3.1.4 Cost - The prices of major raw materials remained stable, and the overall production cost increased slightly month-on-month. The port manganese ore inventory was stable at around 4.4 million tons, and the port manganese ore price did not change much. The price of rich manganese slag increased month-on-month, and the spot production cost of manganese silicon increased by 0 - 100 yuan/ton month-on-month [5]. 3.1.5 Summary - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of manganese silicon is limited. The price center has moved down month-on-month. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and there is an expectation of a certain improvement in downstream demand in September [6]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon iron supply continued to increase. In August, there were 77 silicon iron enterprises in production nationwide, with 261 ore furnaces in operation. The average operating rate in August was 52.74%, a 1.15% increase from July. The estimated production was 479,300 tons, a 18,900 - ton increase from July, a 4.11% month-on-month increase, and a 24,500 - ton increase from the same period last year, a 5.39% year-on-year increase [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - Steel demand did not show a significant increase, and steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In July, the production of metal magnesium decreased month-on-month, but the absolute value was still at a high level in the same period in recent years [8][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample silicon iron enterprises decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was gradually weakening. By the end of August, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 62,910 tons, a decrease of 2,270 tons from mid - August [8][94]. 3.2.4 Cost - The spot production cost increased this month, but the support for prices was limited. The price of semi - coke small materials increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of about 10% to 650 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2.5 Summary - The overall fundamental driving force is limited, market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has moved down. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and electricity price performance [9]. 3.3 Price and Related Indicators 3.3.1 Futures Price - In August, the price centers of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures contracts moved down month - on - month. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract on August 28 was 5,842 yuan/ton, a 3.09% month - on - month decrease; the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5,624 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [10][12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Spot prices in various regions also decreased to varying degrees, with the average decline of ferrosilicon spot prices greater than that of ferromanganese [13]. 3.3.3 Basis - The basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated and strengthened [18]. 3.3.4 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of ferromanganese decreased by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, while that of ferrosilicon increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][25]. 3.3.5 Production Cost - The production cost of ferrosilicon increased significantly this month, greater than the average increase in the cost of ferromanganese [27]. 3.3.6 Production Profit - The spot production costs of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the production profits also decreased [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a "wait-and-see" approach [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coking coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand. However, in the long - term fundamental aspect, the real estate market is continuously sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained for a long time. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is still pressure on ferroalloys [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - For ferrosilicon, the price in Inner Mongolia's main production area is 5,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Ningxia it is 5,600 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). In trading areas, the price in Hebei and Tianjin is 5,900 yuan/ton (unchanged). For ferromanganese, in the northern production area of Inner Mongolia, the market price is 5,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the southern production area of Guangxi it is 5,900 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), and in the trading area of Jiangsu it is 5,900 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Cost and Profit - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi is 630 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The production cost of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5,352 yuan/ton, and that of ferromanganese in Ningxia is 5,942.08 yuan/ton (+23.24 yuan/ton). The profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia's production area is - 49 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Ningxia it is 98 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton). The profit of ferromanganese in the northern region is - 58.5 yuan/ton (+39.64 yuan/ton), and in the southern region is - 417.15 yuan/ton (+8.71 yuan/ton) [2] 3.3 Supply - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output is 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises is 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output is 207,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, the supply of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large supply pressure [3] 3.4 Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high hot metal production supports the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. However, the inventory accumulation of five major steel products restricts the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is limited. The steel billet inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large billet pressure. In July, the production of magnesium metal was 81,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand. The demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for five major steel products of ferrosilicon is 20,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and that of ferromanganese is 125,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% [3] 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, the warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 104,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52%, and the total inventory of ferrosilicon is 169,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the warehouse receipt inventory of ferromanganese is 374,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total inventory of ferromanganese is 532,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - For silicon manganese, the fundamentals are becoming looser, but short - term demand resilience remains due to a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory shows a downward trend but remains at a high level. With the market sentiment cooling but still lingering, short - selling or waiting and seeing is advisable, with the main contract reference range at [5954, 6274] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the fundamentals are also becoming looser. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly but is still high, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended, with the main contract reference range at [5754, 6112] [52][53] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply - The national silicon manganese production has been rising for thirteen consecutive weeks. As of August 15, the total national production was 207,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,235 tons, and the operating rate was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. Northern production areas have stable operations, while southern areas like Guangxi and Guizhou have minor restarts, and Yunnan's operating rate has reached 88.21% [4][12] Demand - As of August 15, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 125,382 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the weekly output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 million tons. The 8 - month silicon manganese tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase from July, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, a 1,500 - ton increase from July [4][17][20] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 74,797, a decrease of 1,248 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 382,200 tons, with a slower decline rate [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports were relatively stable this week. The shipment volume continued to decline, while the arrival and port clearance volumes increased significantly compared to the previous period. Coke's sixth price increase has been implemented, but the chemical coke price in the production area has not followed up this week. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,853 and 6,430 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 53 and - 530 yuan/ton respectively [4][26] Silicon Iron Supply - As of August 15, the weekly production of silicon iron was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons, and the operating rate was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had relatively stable operations, and Shaanxi had a minor restart [52][59] Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 tons. In August, a new round of demand was being released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The 8 - month silicon iron tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous month. The domestic magnesium market was stable and slightly stronger this week [52][63][65] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 108,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from last Friday [52] Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently, and the semi - coke price in some areas has increased slightly. The electricity price in Gansu has dropped to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and in Qinghai, it has increased to 0.375 yuan/kWh. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 49 and 148 yuan/ton respectively [52][71]