All right, Keith Learner, set us up here. We got the Fed decision. We got some key earnings as we as we know.How you think. >> Yeah. Well, I think Mike summed it up well.I think I wouldn't be, you know, overly focused just on tomorrow, even though there could be a knee-jerk reaction. The important thing is historically when the Fed cuts rates and markets are near all-time highs, a year later, the market has been up about 93% of the time. Go back to the mid 90s, 97 98, the Fed stayed on hold at 550.for over ...

All right, Keith Learner, set us up here. We got the Fed decision. We got some key earnings as we as we know.How you think. >> Yeah. Well, I think Mike summed it up well.I think I wouldn't be, you know, overly focused just on tomorrow, even though there could be a knee-jerk reaction. The important thing is historically when the Fed cuts rates and markets are near all-time highs, a year later, the market has been up about 93% of the time. Go back to the mid 90s, 97 98, the Fed stayed on hold at 550.for over ...

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December, this year more than ever, is a month of pure transition. Managers are focused more on the results they'll present to clients than on the risk/reward ratio. The priority is getting to December 31stI’m a Portfolio manager (flexible equity funds and private clients), fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I combine top-down macro, bottom-up stock selection and r ...

Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) 2025 Conference Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Eastman Chemical Company - **Industry**: Specialty Chemicals, Advanced Materials, Additives, Functional Products Key Points and Arguments Demand Environment - Demand is currently lighter than expected, particularly in Chemical Intermediates, with North American demand deteriorating due to commodity price pressures and prolonged turnaround times for large crackers [3][4][5] - Advanced Materials and Additives & Functional Products are expected to maintain earnings in line with previous forecasts despite overall lighter demand [3][4] Financial Performance - The company anticipates earnings for Q4 to be slightly below the previously communicated range of $0.75 to $1, primarily due to challenges in the Chemical Intermediates segment [5][6] - Cash flow is projected to approach $1 billion for 2025, supported by inventory management actions taken in Q3 [5][6] Inventory Management - Customers have not significantly built inventory, leading to a cautious approach in managing supply chains [7][8] - The company has made strategic decisions to manage inventory levels effectively, particularly in the fibers and specialty plastics businesses [8][9] Market Segments - Approximately 50% of Eastman's exposure is to discretionary markets, which typically yield higher margins [12] - The automotive sector is a significant focus, with Eastman positioned to benefit from higher-end automotive products due to increased glass usage and technology integration [15][17] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - Eastman is on track to achieve $75 million in cost reductions for 2025 and an additional $100 million in 2026, focusing on operational efficiencies across the company [25][46] - Capital expenditures are expected to stabilize around $400 million, with potential increases if new projects are initiated [44][45] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about growth in the packaging sector, particularly in 2026, driven by mechanical recycling and innovative product offerings [22][39] - Eastman is strategically positioned to leverage its investments in digital technologies and supply chain transparency to enhance operational efficiency [9][10] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from consumer demand fluctuations, particularly in discretionary segments, which may impact growth trajectories [38][40] - Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including interest rates and consumer affordability, could influence market conditions and demand recovery [18][20] Strategic Initiatives - Eastman is focusing on enhancing its circular economy initiatives, including the development of a methanolysis facility to support recycled content in packaging [32][33] - The company is committed to maintaining strong partnerships with customers to navigate current market challenges and capitalize on future growth opportunities [38][40] Additional Important Insights - The company has seen a shift in customer behavior, with a focus on maintaining existing relationships rather than expanding new product introductions in a challenging consumer environment [38] - Eastman is actively managing its supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance operational efficiency, particularly in its textiles and fibers businesses [26][28][27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Eastman Chemical Company conference, highlighting the current state of the company, its market segments, financial performance, and strategic initiatives moving forward.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Banco Macro reported a net income loss of ARS 33.1 billion, a decrease of ARS 191.5 billion compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to higher loan loss provisions and administrative expenses [3][4] - Total comprehensive income for the quarter was an ARS 28.4 billion loss, with net income for the first nine months of 2025 totaling ARS 176.7 billion, down 35% year-on-year [3][4] - The annualized ROE and ROA as of Q3 2025 were 4.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net operating income before general and administrative expenses was ARS 779.6 billion, down 23% from Q2 2025 [4] - Provision for loan losses increased to ARS 156.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter and 424% year-on-year [4] - Net interest income totaled ARS 686.2 billion, a decrease of 7% from Q2 2025 and 8% year-on-year [4][5] - Net fee income was ARS 177.3 billion, down 7% from Q2 2025, with credit card fees decreasing by 22% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private sector loans increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter and 67% year-on-year, with commercial loans showing significant growth [14][15] - Total deposits increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, totaling ARS 11.8 trillion, with private sector deposits increasing by 6% [15] - Banco Macro's market share in private sector loans reached 9% as of September 2025 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank aims to grow loans by 35% in real terms and deposits by 25% in real terms for 2026, with a focus on both commercial and consumer sectors [22][38] - The bank is exploring M&A opportunities due to its excess capital of ARS 3.3 trillion, with potential developments expected in the next 12-18 months [31][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the increase in provisions was due to a peak in non-performing loans (NPLs) and unexpected additional expenses [21] - The bank expects the peak of NPLs to occur between October and November, with a cost of risk forecasted to be around 5% in 2026 [29][30] - Management remains optimistic about the bond portfolio performance improving in Q4 2025 [57] Other Important Information - The efficiency ratio deteriorated to 39.1% from 35.9% in Q2 2025, indicating increased operational costs [11] - The non-performing total finance ratio reached 3.02%, with a coverage ratio of 120.87% [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Was the result worse than anticipated? - Management acknowledged that the results were impacted by higher provisions for NPLs and unexpected expenses, along with margin compression due to interest rate fluctuations [21][22] Question: What are the expectations for loan growth next year? - The bank forecasts a 35% growth in loans and a 25% growth in deposits for 2026, with an expected ROE in the low 10s [22][30] Question: Can you provide details on the extra expenses? - The additional expenses were primarily related to early retirement plans that were not anticipated [24] Question: When do you expect the peak of NPLs? - Management expects the peak to occur between October and November, with a cost of risk around 6.5% for Q4 [29][30] Question: What factors will drive deposit growth in 2026? - Positive real interest rates are expected to drive deposit growth, with a forecast of 25% growth in real terms [61] Question: What is the plan for the $400 million bond maturing in 2026? - Management is considering various options, including rolling over the bond or issuing a new senior bond, with a decision expected by mid-2026 [72][74]

Market Seasonality & Trends - Seasonality is considered unreliable for investment decisions, despite historical trends like "sell in May and go away" [1][2] - A rocky November preceded positive S&P 500 price targets for 2026 from banks, averaging 7580 [3] AI & Technology - Concerns exist about the consensus that AI will bring endless profitability, questioning if capital expenditure on AI is wise, given uncertain returns for end-users [6] - The current data center buildout for AI is reminiscent of the internet era's bandwidth buildout, suggesting a potential retrenchment [7] Investment Strategy & Market Breadth - The "easy money" in the market may have already been made, prompting a search for new investment opportunities [7][8] - The market is expected to broaden out beyond the same seven to ten popular stocks [9][10] - Investors are starting to look beyond hype, focusing on companies with solid earnings, dividends, and cash flows [11] Risk Assessment - Overexcitement and consensus can signal the end of bull markets [5] - Bitcoin is viewed as a short-term proxy for risk-on/risk-off sentiment, influencing algorithmic trading [11]

Investor Sentiment & Market Outlook - Investor sentiment regarding the sustainability of the AI trade experienced a significant boost in recent months, followed by a period of rethinking in the last four weeks [2] - Investor positioning indicators, including systematic positioning for CTAs, risk parity, volatility target strategies, and momentum signals, have decreased from above the 95th percentile to the 50th percentile, indicating reduced warning signals [5] - The market's catalyst for recovery in the next two to three months is earnings, not necessarily the Federal Reserve's December decision [8] Earnings & Sector Performance - Concerns around OpenAI overshadowed Nvidia's earnings, despite the company beating expectations and providing better guidance [9] - The earnings beat trade for the third quarter was the strongest since 2021, indicating a generally positive earnings season [10] - Consensus expectations for fourth-quarter sequential earnings growth for the S&P are down 1%, and excluding tech, net income expectations are down 8% [11] - Eight out of eleven sectors are expected to report a sequential decline in earnings, creating a potentially bearish setup [12] - Small and mid-cap companies in the United States experienced a relatively strong earnings season, offering potential fuel for the market beyond big cap tech stocks [14] - Broadening has been happening in the market, with industrials, healthcare, financials, and even energy sectors up 6% to 14% year-to-date [16][17] Potential Risks & Concerns - A major concern is when CapEx starts to decline, leading to worries about higher tech debt [1] - There are concerns that the open air universe might only benefit Google, potentially threatening the broader Nvidia and hyperscale trades [4] - Investors may have excessively cut risk or taken up hedges in November, potentially missing out on a market melt-up driven by earnings [12][13]

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Market Trends & Investment Strategies - AI leadership is shifting from buildout and chips to utilization phase, potentially impacting earnings [2] - Tech stocks have experienced outflows for six consecutive weeks, with the last four-week rolling average being the lowest since June 2021 [3] - Investors are becoming more selective in the tech sector, potentially impacting energy and chip stocks due to valuation and execution speed concerns [4][5] - Bonds are seen as compelling with yields around 4%, offering stability and income potential, leading to a more neutral posture [10][12] - Broadening out in the market, with areas like healthcare and small cap showing potential for gains in the years ahead [14] Economic Outlook - The economy is growing but slowing, with stall speed below 15% posing a risk to earnings growth [8] - The pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts is crucial as the economy decelerates [9] - Job cuts and a potentially weaker jobs report next month raise concerns about the broader economy [7][8] Potential Risks - High valuations in equities require perfect earnings delivery [12] - Upcoming decisions on tariffs and potential weakness in the labor market due to AI pose risks [13]